Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[A mex eyecan]

I read somewhere that this was a myth started by paper towel manufacturers.

my understandin* was that a famous brand maker of dryers tried to sue a famous brand maker of toilet tissues and lost.

Also Westminster university supposedly did a report that substantiated the claims.

no names of course

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Good points. Maybe we’ve taken the correct measures and balanced safety with personal freedom.


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In the Navy there was a thing called CDF “Common Dog ****” alternatively known as common sense. We need CDF.


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[Bakero]

So, badly affected countries so far:

China - source with terrible hygiene and disgusting wet markets. I can’t speak for the mainlanders but Taiwan Chinese have very basic public toilets and a spitting problem.

Italy - tactile, family based culture (which, ironically, I’ve always admired) but kids who go to bars and clubs and oldies who go to communion and then all head back to the same house and greet each other with kisses.

Spain - no soap in toilets.


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Everything you mention of Italy is the same in Spain. What's more, the Spanish have absolutely zero understanding of personal space- they love nothing more than being crammed together like sardines. Find yourself a deserted beach and you can bet that a Spanish family will arrive and set up within 2 feet of you

 

[Pondicherry]

This is the current reality from a UK critical care doctor working in a UK HCID (high consequence infectious diseases) unit.

Without talking specifically about my unit, the critically ill patients across the UK are in a broad age mix. There are a smaller number of younger patients (30s to 40s) who are usually well, and a larger number of older patients with co-morbidities.

Italy exceeded their critical care capacity days ago. The European intensive care community is relatively close knit - we all have friends and colleagues in EU hospitals and we see each other often at conferences and the like. The news from Italy is incredibly sad. The units are full, no operations are occurring as patients are being ventilated in theaters. Portable ventilators are being used.

Italy recently released a set of COVID guidelines aimed at addressing resource allocation in times of severe demand and lack of supply. This is the first time I have seen guidelines in a first world country suggest that older patients (who have survivable illness) are not considered for intubation and ventilation in order to allow capacity to treat younger patients.

This is an incredibly bleak situation - our thoughts and prayers are with our Italian colleagues - but it may only be a week or two until we are in the same ship.

Full Q and A is here for those interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgfspi/im_a_critical_care_doctor_working_in_a_uk_hcid/

 

[Nobby]

I know in France they are isolating those who have contracted the virus as they are in Germany.


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A lot of school closures North of Paris last week too

 

[Nobby]

Life and death is the ultimate outcome of politics. Should Boris get us through this relatively unscathed his stock will be high. Should the NHS fair comparatively worse than the rest of Europe questions must be asked and answered of the party that’s been in charge for 10 years.

We elect our politicians to keep us safe. To pretend otherwise is patronising nonsense.


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This

Huzzah again!!

 

[rogersix]

Even if the virus in itself maybe wont kill 50-100 million (far too early to say btw), it could still - with some bad luck and bad decision making - kill the same numbers (or more) indirectly since the world is a lot more connected today and a problem somewhere is also a problem elsewhere.

Just take food supply. I dont know the numbers for rest of Europe but could imagine a lot of countries having a similar: in the 1980s Sweden were 85% self sustaining on food, today about 50% of what we eat is imported. In the 1980s most of the Swedes had savings, now we have debts. Sweden and surely a lot of other Western countries depend on the world functioning reasonably well and this virus is a major threat to the type of stability most people take for granted.

exactly, so it is undoubtably a political issue then, [MENTION=7631]wellquickwoody[/MENTION]

 

[Guinness Boy]

Everything you mention of Italy is the same in Spain. What's more, the Spanish have absolutely zero understanding of personal space- they love nothing more than being crammed together like sardines. Find yourself a deserted beach and you can bet that a Spanish family will arrive and set up within 2 feet of you

The holiday I mentioned that I’m hoping to take with the family is to Greek Cyprus. I’ve not been there for a holiday but have been to Nicosia a couple of times for work.

It’s wonderful. Everyone knows everyone else and all I did for several days was attend a short meeting in between eating lots and talking to the attendees about their friends and family.

I can only imagine that the combination of sociable, family based staff and air conditioned rooms will make our hotel a no go zone by May.

These are values I normally hold in massively high regard and why we booked Cyprus. Grr.


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[Guinness Boy]

Everything you mention of Italy is the same in Spain. What's more, the Spanish have absolutely zero understanding of personal space- they love nothing more than being crammed together like sardines. Find yourself a deserted beach and you can bet that a Spanish family will arrive and set up within 2 feet of you

Is smoking as big a deal in Spain as it used to be? Pretty much every older Chinese man I’ve met smoked like a chimney and Italians have more smoke breaks than actual work hours.


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[Poojah]

I'm very much in the 'somewhat concerned' camp on this, and have been particularly worried about our approach to limiting the spread compared to other nations. However, I have to admit to being marginally enthused today by the relatively modest new case count which has stayed quite steady for five days on the trot now. I was a bit bored, so I decided to do a bit of number crunching of my own, and being the sad bugger I am, pulled a few graphs together in Excel.

What I've done is overlaid data of relevant European nations not by calendar date, but from the first moment they reported an increase in new cases of 10 or more in a single day - I'm treating this as "day 1" for each country. I'm no epidemiologist (I didn't even know what one was a few weeks ago), however here are a few observations.

First and foremast, it seems pretty clear that the suggestion that we are Italy -14 days is plain wrong (at least I hope so). Italy it seems is a basket case, although if there's any positive to take from the tradegy they're facing over there right now is that it may have helped save lives in other countries by learning from their mistakes. The key figure here isn't necessarily how many cases you have in total, but the daily rate of acceleration. Look at the difference between Italy at the UK.



It has taken the UK 11 days to go from 24 cases to 373. Italy went from 4 to 470 in 7 days, with a jump of 147 cases in a single day taking them to that point. So evidently, we've done a better job of initial containment than Italy. That doesn't necessarily qualify as good news in itself, but hopefully its sufficient to mean that we won't be quite in the state they are in, in a fortnight's time.

So, let's take a look at how we compare to our friends over in France, Spain and Germany. First and foremost, they're also doing considerably better than Italy.



13 days since the 'starting point', they're at around half the total cases Italy had. They're growing in a noticeably more linear fashion, but still at a fairly significant rate. However, these countries have now moved to more drastic containment measures such as the banning of mass gatherings, school closures and social distancing; you'd hope that the rate there will begin to gradually decline (if they aren't already - more on this later).

So then, how do we track versus the French, Spaniards and ze Germans? Actually, pretty well; at least so far.



On day 11, we're doing considerably better than each of those nations. France and Germany were both more than double our 373 count at that point. Spain were 'only' at 525, but have had a massive surge of almost 600 today. That, admittedly, is a concern.

Still, as I said earlier, I think it's the daily growth rate rather than the number of total cases that's the most relevant metric at the moment. Here's how we stack up versus our European neighbours (with the exception of Italy as it skews the chart):



It looks to me as though this is more or less containable up until such a point you hit 100+ daily new cases. In reality, it's probably a lower threshold than that as the numbers reflect confirmed cases not infections which of course occur several days before. We seem to have done well in our efforts so far, however we've probably in reality overstepped that threshold already so expect in the next two or three days max to see a growth rate over here which is a bit more shocking, or at least over and above that crucial century mark. Things are likely to escalate quite quickly from there.

However, more encouraging is that France appear to have had three consecutive days of a declining new case count; Germany two consecutive days. It will be interesting to see what Spain looks like tomorrow, but certainly it seems that the slightly more drastic measures now being rolled out are working. Avoiding an exponential spread early on is crucial.

It's in this context that our Goverment's plans (and I dislike Boris Johnson with a passion by the way) seem make a lot more sense. These are my thoughts:

• There are two extremes you could take. The first is to 'take it on the chin' and aim to keep operating as normally as possible. The other is a sudden, draconian lockdown before the numbers get out of hand. In reality, neither are going to be palatable to the British people (they would be a disaster either in terms of the loss of human life and / or economically)
  
• So, the plan seems to be to contain, contain, contain whilst minimising the damage to the economy for as long as humanly possible
  
• Introduce more stringent measures (banning events, school closures and so on) to reduce the spread and bring about a decline in new cases, for as short a time as possible until we're back to sufficiently low new levels to resume normality
  
• Repeat in short waves until the virus begins to dissipate naturally for instance because of temperature increases, increases in community immunity having already been infected (I suspect our scientists know more about the virus's ability to withstand warm weather than has been let on)

There's no way of beating this without some pain, but if the above is the approach we're taking then I can see the logic in it. I appreciate that the government have quoted a worst case scenario of 80% infection but there's simply no way that can be allowed to happen. Even if that doesn't mean a simultaneous infection rate, Italy is absolutely on its knees with less than 0.02% of their population infected. I hope and pray that such scaremongering is merely a tool for getting the public on board with the unpleasant, but necessary and temporary, measures that we will have to take.

I think we'll have a far better idea as to how this is going to play out in 7 - 14 days, what happens in France and Germany will be telling. Stay safe all!

Happy to update this in the coming days if anyone finds it useful for contextualising where we're at.

 

[Wilko]

The timelines for cases in Spain and Italy are very similar. Spain are currently a week behind. Both countries took one week to go from less than hundred to nearly 1600+. It's amazing how slow the Spanish government has been to act. Schools closing in Madrid an a couple of other areas but nothing elsewhere. The kids in Andalucía have had no information from their schools and, incredibly, schools, even semi-private ones, are still failing to provide soap in the toilets.

Are there any restrictions on travel in and out of Spain at the moment? What are the figures of cases atm? I am asking purely for selfish reasons as I am due to visit next month.

 

[Mackenzie]

I'm very much in the camp of 'somewhat concerned' camp on this, and have been particularly worried about our approach to limiting the spread compared to other nations. However, I have to admit to being marginally enthused today by the relatively modest new case count which has stayed quite steady for five days on the trot now. I was a bit bored, so I decided to do a bit of number crunching of my own, and being the sad bugger I am, pulled a few graphs together in Excel.

What I've done is overlaid data of relevant European nations not by calendar date, but from the first moment they reported an increase in new cases of 10 or more in a single day - I'm treating this as "day 1" for each country. I'm no epidemiologist (I didn't even know what one was a few weeks ago), however here are a few observations.

First and foremast, it seems pretty clear that the suggestion that we are Italy -14 days is plain wrong (at least I hope so). Italy it seems is a basket case, although if there's any positive to take from the tradegy they're facing over there right now is that it may have helped save lives in other countries by learning from their mistakes. The key figure here isn't necessarily how many cases you have in total, but the daily rate of acceleration. Look at the difference between Italy at the UK.

View attachment 120881

It has taken the UK 11 days to go from 24 cases to 373. Italy went from 4 to 470 in 7 days, with a jump of 147 cases in a single day taking them to that point. So evidently, we've done a better job of initial containment than Italy. That doesn't necessarily qualify as good news in itself, but hopefully its sufficient to mean that we won't be quite in the state they are in, in a fortnight's time.

So, let's take a look at how we compare to our friends over in France, Spain and Germany. First and foremost, they're also doing considerably better than Italy.

View attachment 120882

13 days since the 'starting point', they're at around half the total cases Italy had. They're growing in a noticeably more linear fashion, but still at a fairly significant rate. However, these countries have now moved to more drastic containment measures such as the banning of mass gatherings, school closures and social distancing; you'd hope that the rate there will begin to gradually decline (if they aren't already - more on this later).

So then, how do we track versus the French, Spaniards and ze Germans? Actually, pretty well; at least so far.

View attachment 120883

On day 11, we're doing considerably better than each of those nations. France and Germany were both more than double our 373 count at that point. Spain were 'only' at 525, but have had a massive surge of almost 600 today. That, admittedly, is a concern.

Still, as I said earlier, I think it's the daily growth rate rather than the number of total cases that's the most relevant metric at the moment. Here's how we stack up versus our European neighbours (with the exception of Italy as it skews the chart):

View attachment 120884

It looks to me as though this is more or less containable up until such a point you hit 100+ daily new cases. In reality, it's probably a lower threshold than that as the numbers reflect confirmed cases not infections which of course occur several days before. We seem to have done well in our efforts so far, however we've probably in reality overstepped that threshold already so expect in the next two or three days max to see a growth rate over here which is a bit more shocking, or at least over and above that crucial century mark. Things are likely to escalate quite quickly from there.

However, more encouraging is that France appear to have had three consecutive days of a declining new case count; Germany two consecutive days. It will be interesting to see what Spain looks like tomorrow, but certainly it seems that the slightly more drastic measures now being rolled out are working. Avoiding an exponential spread early on is crucial.

It's in this context that our Goverment's plans (and I dislike Boris Johnson with a passion by the way) seem make a lot more sense. These are my thoughts:

• There are two extremes you could take. The first is to 'take it on the chin' and aim to keep operating as normally as possible. The other is a sudden, draconian lockdown before the numbers get out of hand. In reality, neither are going to be palatable to the British people (they would be a disaster either in terms of the loss of human life and / or economically)
  
• So, the plan seems to be to contain, contain, contain whilst minimising the damage to the economy for as long as humanly possible
  
• Introduce more stringent measures (banning events, school closures and so on) to reduce the spread and bring about a decline in new cases, for as short a time as possible until we're back to sufficiently low new levels to resume normality
  
• Repeat in short waves until the virus begins to dissipate naturally for instance because of temperature increases, increases in community immunity having already been infected (I suspect our scientists know more about the virus's ability to withstand warm weather than has been let on)

There's no way of beating this without some pain, but if the above is the approach we're taking then I can see the logic in it. I appreciate that the government have quoted a worst case scenario of 80% infection but there's simply no way that can be allowed to happen. Even if that doesn't mean a simultaneous infection rate, Italy is absolutely on its knees with less than 0.02% of their population infected. I hope and pray that such scaremongering is merely a tool for getting the public on board with the unpleasant, but necessary and temporary, measures that we will have to take.

I think we'll have a far better idea as to how this is going to play out in 7 - 14 days, what happens in France and Germany will be telling. Stay safe all!

Happy to update this in the coming days if anyone finds it useful for contextualising where we're at.

Thanks, really interesting analysis.

 

[Bozza]

There's no way of beating this without some pain, but if the above is the approach we're taking then I can see the logic in it. I appreciate that the government have quoted a worst case scenario of 80% infection but there's simply no way that can be allowed to happen. Even if that doesn't mean a simultaneous infection rate, Italy is absolutely on its knees with less than 0.02% of their population infected. I hope and pray that such scaremongering is merely a tool for getting the public on board with the unpleasant, but necessary and temporary, measures that we will have to take.

This is the crux for me - the magnitude of the numbers, even under a best-case scenario, strike me as terrifying.

The numbers that are stuck in my head (although some may have been revised - I've not looked at any media for a few days) are:

- Up to 80% of the population to be infected
- The peak to take 2-3 months to reach
- 50% of infections to happen within a three-week window
- Up to 20% of cases requiring specialist hospital treatment
- Up to 1% of cases to result in death
- 100,000 UK deaths as a worst case scenario

The more astute amongst you will note that there's some contradiction in those numbers. Based on other numbers given, I don't see how 100,000 deaths could be a worst case scenario. Given the other numbers we've been told, that would feel like we've had a right result.

And whilst I absolutely understand the theory of smoothing the curve of the spread to bring infections down to a rate the health service can manage, as your Italian example illustrates, the curve would have to be pretty much flattened with infections contained for a good 18 months until such time as a vaccine may be available (it might also not be available) in order to allow the vulnerable to be protected.

The social and economic consequences of an 18-month social distancing period make me think that is just not a possible proposition.

 

[Wilko]

Everything you mention of Italy is the same in Spain. What's more, the Spanish have absolutely zero understanding of personal space- they love nothing more than being crammed together like sardines. Find yourself a deserted beach and you can bet that a Spanish family will arrive and set up within 2 feet of you

I lived in Madrid for a bit in a block of flats with a pool. I would often wake up early and sit myself down by the pool. The first family would come down, look around then pitch up RIGHT next to me and talk as loud as possible. As a Brit I really did not get it, they had the whole of the pool area to sit wherever they like.

 

[Wozza]

From The Times:

A health minister who has met hundreds of people in parliament in the past week and attended a reception at No 10 with Boris Johnson has had coronavirus diagnosed, The Times can reveal.

Nadine Dorries, who played a role in drawing up legislation to tackle coronavirus, fell ill on Friday last week and her diagnosis was confirmed this evening. She is now in isolation and understood to be recovering.

The identity of the individual who infected Ms Dorries is unknown but the minister has been working in parliament and the Department of Health and Social Care for the past week. Officials are identifying all those with whom she has been in contact since contracting the virus, including MPs. Any who have displayed similar symptoms will be tested.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...er-nadine-dorries-had-been-in-no-10-c3sjs5kmp

 

[Notters]

Impressive graphs etc. [MENTION=17745]Poojah[/MENTION] but I don't think you've taken into account the testing rate which I believe is critical?

 

[Driver8]

From The Times:

A health minister who has met hundreds of people in parliament in the past week and attended a reception at No 10 with Boris Johnson has had coronavirus diagnosed, The Times can reveal.

Nadine Dorries, who played a role in drawing up legislation to tackle coronavirus, fell ill on Friday last week and her diagnosis was confirmed this evening. She is now in isolation and understood to be recovering.

The identity of the individual who infected Ms Dorries is unknown but the minister has been working in parliament and the Department of Health and Social Care for the past week. Officials are identifying all those with whom she has been in contact since contracting the virus, including MPs. Any who have displayed similar symptoms will be tested.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...er-nadine-dorries-had-been-in-no-10-c3sjs5kmp

Obviously didn’t wash her hands properly.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Impressive graphs etc. [MENTION=17745]Poojah[/MENTION] but I don't think you've taken into account the testing rate which I believe is critical?

And the fact they believe it was hanging around in Italy at least a few weeks prior to first positive discovery. Which would put the Italian and UK plot points pretty close together.

 

[Notters]

And the fact they believe it was hanging around in Italy at least a few weeks prior to first positive discovery. Which would put the Italian and UK plot points pretty close together.

There's also surely a huge amount of chance involved at the early stages before probability taks over.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

There's also surely a huge amount of chance involved at the early stages before probability taks over.

Indeed and my Italian business partner claims they were actually very good at testing. Trying to do the right thing when other countries took it less seriously. I'm not sure of the validity of that statement but it could explain some steep jumps in spme countries and not others (like Denmark today +170).