Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[e77]

Probably. Many studies suggest that vaccinated people are less likely to spread the disease than unvaccinated. But the point about covid is that the virus appears to be at its most infectious in the very early days of the disease, so it's before the immune syste has really got going in getting rid of it.

Suppose the virus is at its most infectious in the first 5 days.

A vaccinated person may breathe in the virus on day 0, the virus starts multiplying but the immune system starts to get a grip on day 3, by day 6 the virus has gone before you ever knew it was there. An unvaccinated person has the same trajectory till day 3 but then the virus keeps on growing and by day 6 they feel pretty ill.

The point is for at least 3, perhaps 4 of the 5-days infectious period, there is little difference in transmission risk of the vaccinated v unvaccinated because the infectious period comes so early.

(This isn't an exact position re. coronavirus, just an illustration of how it might be that vaccination makes little difference to transmission. All day numbers are guesses based on what I have heard, not based on scientific study.)

Point I am trying to make is that NHS and care staff not being fully vaccinated increases the risk of onward transmission, although by how much is debatable. If people are arguing it shouldn't be mandatory for them from a freedom of choice perspective then that is one thing, but it isn't without downside if they don't.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

But nothing like as bad as the implication. The flu deaths figure is the estimate of future deaths and ignores past deaths eg. Spanish flu, Hong Kong flu and so on. The covid deaths does include all past deaths. Obviously the covid deaths on original variant with no vaccine are far more recent than their Spanish Flu equivalents, but they are no more relevant to what is likely to happen in future.

Covid at its peak can be validly compared to flu at its peak, and covid now with omicron and vaccines can be validly compared to flu now with its variants and its vaccine.

I hope your sanguine response to Covid isn’t replicated by those in power - however, I fear it will be.

Spanish flu was a once in a lifetime event, hopefully that is the same with Covid 19, although I trust we will do more to be better prepared for any future outbreak.

 

[Yoda]

Probably. Many studies suggest that vaccinated people are less likely to spread the disease than unvaccinated. But the point about covid is that the virus appears to be at its most infectious in the very early days of the disease, so it's before the immune syste has really got going in getting rid of it.

Suppose the virus is at its most infectious in the first 5 days.

A vaccinated person may breathe in the virus on day 0, the virus starts multiplying but the immune system starts to get a grip on day 3, by day 6 the virus has gone before you ever knew it was there. An unvaccinated person has the same trajectory till day 3 but then the virus keeps on growing and by day 6 they feel pretty ill.

The point is for at least 3, perhaps 4 of the 5-days infectious period, there is little difference in transmission risk of the vaccinated v unvaccinated because the infectious period comes so early.

(This isn't an exact position re. coronavirus, just an illustration of how it might be that vaccination makes little difference to transmission. All day numbers are guesses based on what I have heard, not based on scientific study.)

That's actually pretty close to how it is with Covid-19. You are at your most infectious in the period immediately leading up to being symptomatic, and then starts to decrease. It's now widely believed in the scientific community that by the time an infected person was requiring hospital care, their infectiousness levels had dropped to 10% or below.

All the change into the Omicron variant has done is shortened these time scales.


Regarding Health Care workers having the vaccine as mandatory, there is a CDC report out now in America showing the level of protection from vaccine and previous infection are similar and having the vaccine if previously infected not showing much more benefit. It obviously more advantageous to have had the vaccine before being infected though and not the other wat around.

 

[jordanseagull]

Point I am trying to make is that NHS and care staff not being fully vaccinated increases the risk of onward transmission, although by how much is debatable. If people are arguing it shouldn't be mandatory for them from a freedom of choice perspective then that is one thing, but it isn't without downside if they don't.

But at the same time there would be a catastrophic downside to sacking thousands of frontline staff at a time when the frontline is already stretched thin. It’s not a zero sum game between freedom of choice and the prevention of Covid-19 transmission. If we had thousands willing to jump straight into their shoes then this would be a very different debate, but we don’t. It’s not even close to being a price worth paying, and thankfully this diabolical government has realised that.

 

[Wardy's twin]

But at the same time there would be a catastrophic downside to sacking thousands of frontline staff at a time when the frontline is already stretched thin. It’s not a zero sum game between freedom of choice and the prevention of Covid-19 transmission. If we had thousands willing to jump straight into their shoes then this would be a very different debate, but we don’t. It’s not even close to being a price worth paying, and thankfully this diabolical government has realised that.

Would buy a car from a salesman who thought they were dangerous? I wouldn't . Would you be happy if the doctor or nurse dealing with you said I don't believe in washing my hands? I wouldn't.

Maybe two odd ball comments to you but we have a NHS policy recommending and to a large extent relying on people to take the jab yet to have employees of said organisation refusing is wrong.

So what you have is an important organisation and pillar of our society held to ransom by a relatively small group of people.

Personally I would stand back from forcing the issue and make sure its a part of people's contracts for new employees.

What I would like to see is who the front line people are who are refusing the jab any comments that I have seen from ICU staff clearly were pissed off by having to deal with unvaccinated people.

 

[e77]

But at the same time there would be a catastrophic downside to sacking thousands of frontline staff at a time when the frontline is already stretched thin. It’s not a zero sum game between freedom of choice and the prevention of Covid-19 transmission. If we had thousands willing to jump straight into their shoes then this would be a very different debate, but we don’t. It’s not even close to being a price worth paying, and thankfully this diabolical government has realised that.

Again, it's a fair argument, although I do have real concerns how so many People working in health and care have taken on board misinformation about vaccines that 100s of millions of people world wide have now safely taken.

The government should either have followed through with their threat or never made it.

 

[LamieRobertson]

But at the same time there would be a catastrophic downside to sacking thousands of frontline staff at a time when the frontline is already stretched thin. It’s not a zero sum game between freedom of choice and the prevention of Covid-19 transmission. If we had thousands willing to jump straight into their shoes then this would be a very different debate, but we don’t. It’s not even close to being a price worth paying, and thankfully this diabolical government has realised that.

Staff that have worked throughout this pandemic ..some of who have been exposed a heck of a lot more than most

 

[dazzer6666]

Denmark the first to go……….we’re not far behind IMO

DT article - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/land-covid-now-no-worse-cold/

Extract

Welcome to Denmark, where Covid is over – again. Yesterday, the Scandinavian nation became the first country in Europe to put an end to all coronavirus-related laws. In the eyes of the Danish government and, crucially, the vast majority of its 5.8m citizens, the virus is no longer deemed a “critical threat to society”. Cases remain high – very high – but the Danes have moved on. Even if you test positive, there is no longer a legal obligation to self-isolate.

In the capital, Copenhagen, there was an atmosphere of cautious relief on Tuesday morning as people crammed into the Metro, onto commuter trains and buses, and into shops without face masks for the first time since November.

Even the new, more transmissible BA.2 omicron variant that now dominates infections in Denmark could not put people off. Tyra Grove Krause, director of infection preparedness at the country’s infectious diseases agency SSI, said there was nothing for it but to let the new wave “run through the population”.

“With omicron, it is impossible to stop the spread of infection, even with severe restrictions,” she said, before predicting that natural immunity would now combine with Denmark’s high vaccination rates to send the latest wave into decline by the middle of this month. As far as community health is concerned, Covid is now on a par with the common cold.

 

[Billy the Fish]

I'd be interested to know if a proportion of Danish people have gone batshit crazy at this news.

 

[dazzer6666]

...another article link/extract.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/01/covid-really-deadly-flu-omicron-came-along/

Is Covid really more deadly than the flu? It was ... until omicron came along

Millions of omicron cases have translated into relatively few deaths, bringing an important change in the deadliness of the virus

It is a question that has plagued the pandemic, sparking furious debate over Britain’s dinner tables. Is coronavirus really any more deadly than flu?

Before the vaccine roll-out and omicron surge, the answer was undoubtedly: “yes”.

Even at the end of December, the rolling seven-day Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for coronavirus was about 0.3 per cent or one death in 333 cases, based on a 21-day lag between testing and death.

In comparison, the death rate for flu sits somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent - or between one death in 1,000 and one death in 500.

It was previously much worse. In May 2020, the Covid case fatality rate peaked as high as 15 per cent - one death in six cases - although this was largely fuelled by lack of testing - but it is fair to say that throughout the pandemic coronavirus has been far deadlier than flu.

However, the situation has changed dramatically in the last few weeks. The millions of cases sparked by the omicron wave have translated into relatively few deaths, bringing an important change in the deadliness of Covid.

Latest case fatality rates in England in the seven days up to January 26 are now just 0.14 per cent - one death in 714 positive cases, having fallen further since hundreds of thousands of reinfections were added to the case data.

The infection fatality rate (IFR) - the number of deaths for all infections, not just positive cases - tells a similar picture. Prof Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, estimates it to be around 0.06 per cent.

Data from the ZOE symptom tracker app, shared with The Telegraph, show there were more than 9.2 million Covid infections since the start of December in the UK, and 10,670 reported deaths, an IFR of 0.11 per cent over that time period.

Working out the fatality rates for flu is notoriously tricky, but figures from the US Centers of Disease Control from 2017 to 2018 estimate the IFR of flu to be around 0.12 per cent and the case fatality rate to be 0.27 per cent.

It is likely now, that even with millions of Covid cases in December and January, excess winter mortality this year will not even approach a bad flu year - let alone the levels we have seen in previous waves.

Updated dashboard data show that on the worst day of the omicron wave, some 272,223 people were infected yet deaths peaked at just 273 on January 21, more than a thousand below the 2021 winter daily peak.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

...another article link/extract.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/01/covid-really-deadly-flu-omicron-came-along/

Is Covid really more deadly than the flu? It was ... until omicron came along

Millions of omicron cases have translated into relatively few deaths, bringing an important change in the deadliness of the virus

It is a question that has plagued the pandemic, sparking furious debate over Britain’s dinner tables. Is coronavirus really any more deadly than flu?

Before the vaccine roll-out and omicron surge, the answer was undoubtedly: “yes”.

Even at the end of December, the rolling seven-day Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for coronavirus was about 0.3 per cent or one death in 333 cases, based on a 21-day lag between testing and death.

In comparison, the death rate for flu sits somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent - or between one death in 1,000 and one death in 500.

It was previously much worse. In May 2020, the Covid case fatality rate peaked as high as 15 per cent - one death in six cases - although this was largely fuelled by lack of testing - but it is fair to say that throughout the pandemic coronavirus has been far deadlier than flu.

However, the situation has changed dramatically in the last few weeks. The millions of cases sparked by the omicron wave have translated into relatively few deaths, bringing an important change in the deadliness of Covid.

Latest case fatality rates in England in the seven days up to January 26 are now just 0.14 per cent - one death in 714 positive cases, having fallen further since hundreds of thousands of reinfections were added to the case data.

The infection fatality rate (IFR) - the number of deaths for all infections, not just positive cases - tells a similar picture. Prof Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, estimates it to be around 0.06 per cent.

Data from the ZOE symptom tracker app, shared with The Telegraph, show there were more than 9.2 million Covid infections since the start of December in the UK, and 10,670 reported deaths, an IFR of 0.11 per cent over that time period.

Working out the fatality rates for flu is notoriously tricky, but figures from the US Centers of Disease Control from 2017 to 2018 estimate the IFR of flu to be around 0.12 per cent and the case fatality rate to be 0.27 per cent.

It is likely now, that even with millions of Covid cases in December and January, excess winter mortality this year will not even approach a bad flu year - let alone the levels we have seen in previous waves.

Updated dashboard data show that on the worst day of the omicron wave, some 272,223 people were infected yet deaths peaked at just 273 on January 21, more than a thousand below the 2021 winter daily peak.

I guess the question now, if Omicron is so weak, is what health conditions do people have, that combined with Covid, result in death.

Those are clearly the people who should be targeted to make as safe as possible. The antigen treatments are a step in the right direction, but are only used once you have CAUGHT Covid, and have around an 80% efficacy.

This for a vulnerable person is a bit like wearing a seat belt that they know 20% of the time will fail. Clearly that won't stop you getting in a car, but might make you cautious as to who you share a drive with!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I'd be interested to know if a proportion of Danish people have gone batshit crazy at this news.

I imagine mainly from people who don’t live there.

Norway have followed

 

[Yoda]

I guess the question now, if Omicron is so weak, is what health conditions do people have, that combined with Covid, result in death.

Those are clearly the people who should be targeted to make as safe as possible. The antigen treatments are a step in the right direction, but are only used once you have CAUGHT Covid, and have around an 80% efficacy.

This for a vulnerable person is a bit like wearing a seat belt that they know 20% of the time will fail. Clearly that won't stop you getting in a car, but might make you cautious as to who you share a drive with!

The data is only released quarterly by the ONS but up until the end of December 2021, with Delta (slowly being pushed out at the end by omicron) it was Diabetes. These are the top ten conditions:


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...icles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths

I'm assuming the 10th on in laymens terms is cancer.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Denmark the first to go……….we’re not far behind IMO

DT article - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/land-covid-now-no-worse-cold/

Extract

Welcome to Denmark, where Covid is over – again. Yesterday, the Scandinavian nation became the first country in Europe to put an end to all coronavirus-related laws. In the eyes of the Danish government and, crucially, the vast majority of its 5.8m citizens, the virus is no longer deemed a “critical threat to society”. Cases remain high – very high – but the Danes have moved on. Even if you test positive, there is no longer a legal obligation to self-isolate.

In the capital, Copenhagen, there was an atmosphere of cautious relief on Tuesday morning as people crammed into the Metro, onto commuter trains and buses, and into shops without face masks for the first time since November.

Even the new, more transmissible BA.2 omicron variant that now dominates infections in Denmark could not put people off. Tyra Grove Krause, director of infection preparedness at the country’s infectious diseases agency SSI, said there was nothing for it but to let the new wave “run through the population”.

“With omicron, it is impossible to stop the spread of infection, even with severe restrictions,” she said, before predicting that natural immunity would now combine with Denmark’s high vaccination rates to send the latest wave into decline by the middle of this month. As far as community health is concerned, Covid is now on a par with the common cold.

Did you see the interview by Freddie Sayers on Unherd.com with the Danish modeller …class above our lot it would seem

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

The data is only released quarterly by the ONS but up until the end of December 2021, with Delta (slowly being pushed out at the end by omicron) it was Diabetes. These are the top ten conditions:

View attachment 144626
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...icles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths

I'm assuming the 10th on in laymens terms is cancer.

My understanding is number 10 is blood cancer!

That data will be interesting to see if it changes at all when Omicron can be seen as dominant in the data.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

Assume the diabetes correlation is also associated with many diabetic also being obese?

Great news if the health risks of (omnicron) covid are now similar or less than flu.

Hope for pre-covid life to resume now.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

This graph showing risk is on a par with flu and now is slightly lower than flu for under 45’s.

Time to move on? Or get as worried about flu as we are about covid.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1488089690045562882?s=20&t=18OYsaqinvrJLXQ019vjrA

 

[Notters]

Assume the diabetes correlation is also associated with many diabetic also being obese?

Great news if the health risks of (omnicron) covid are now similar or less than flu.

Hope for pre-covid life to resume now.

Very likely I would think, and people who are obese are clearly likely to have a number of other health problems too.
We (the Government?) really needs to find a way to tackle obesity with around 28% of the country obese.
The stick doesn't seem to have worked - is there a carrot approach that could?

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

Take on obesity by a strategy to inform and educate the population about healthy food choices and lifestyle choices. Keep it positive- promote positive options rather than criticising less healthy ones.

Possibly look at restricting the advertising unhealthy choices as they are heavily promoted / pushed on people at present.

 

[dazzer6666]

Got my post-isolation survey to fill in from Test and Trace