Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

My hunch was snobbery, an innate "they're South African, can we trust their science as much as something emanating from North America/UK/EU?".

i was raising this week or so before Christmas. data from SA was clear the effect were benign, all we heard was "too early to say". not just here, across Europe and US, didnt want to hear/see the data from SA. bit shameful really as its so obvious.

 

[e77]

Best not try to live life on the ‘what if’ basis then…oh and I’m not sure everything is back to normal is it? Never used to have to wear a mask to go and buy some food…and at the other end of the scale for the uk look at the restrictions for the other three home nations

My point is we need to maintain the apparatus to ramp up again. I am concerned the government are flying a kite about charging people for LFTs which to me is a sign they are washing their hands of the whole thing.

If we have to wear a mask down the shops for the rest of winter then so be it. Haven't really followed Northern Ireland but at the moment it looks like Scotland and Wales might have been over cautious, but bearing in mind what happened before I really can't blame them for that.

 

[e77]

The actions of Sturgeon, Drakeford and others will mean that message will be lost on large numbers.

As I said it looks now like Scotland and Wales might have been overly cautious. Then again me and you have never had to make potential life and death decision about people's lives so I am more than willing to cut them some slack (not that living in England that means much).

 

[dazzer6666]

My point is we need to maintain the apparatus to ramp up again. I am concerned the government are flying a kite about charging people for LFTs which to me is a sign they are washing their hands of the whole thing.

If we have to wear a mask down the shops for the rest of winter then so be it. Haven't really followed Northern Ireland but at the moment it looks like Scotland and Wales might have been over cautious, but bearing in mind what happened before I really can't blame them for that.

What Scotland and Wales did was largely political IMO………the respective leaders have to keep showing themselves to be ‘different to Boris’. If they were going to implement the measures they did for other reasons they wouldn’t have delayed for so long (and ‘cancelled Christmas’)

 

[e77]

It's nowhere near normal yet IMO, and in particular we're facing a really critical 2-3 weeks on admission numbers at least as the lag from the higher infection numbers unwinds (and that's assuming the infection peak has been reached/passed). From what I've read the expected evolution of such viruses tends towards progressively milder versions so there is some hope at least.

If and when we do reach the endemic stage, I'm looking forward to seeing what conclusions are drawn from what we did (and didn't do), what the real data is telling us (particularly in relation to incidence and severity of illness/death relative to vaccination status and the impact of this on the NHS, and to the 'real' numbers taking into account 'with' and because of' Covid - I'm pretty convinced comparisons between countries are bordering on meaningless at the moment on almost any level except excess deaths)

If we get past this peak/wave I can see all restrictions being binned off and the emphasis shifting completely to self-protection

I always thought viruses mutated towards weaker versions - certainly Spanish Flu never went anywhere and you don't hear about it anymore - but apparently not always the case and I imagine there could be a few bumps along that road with stronger strains in the short term.

If someone was admitted to hospital with, for example, a broken leg, and failed a Covid test they would still have to be treated differently to other patients and could infect staff and other patients. I get the point but it tends to be an argument used by people who are trying to argue it isn't that bad and we don't need further restrictions.

Self protection is all well and good but that in essence means some professions, such as teachers, will be doing the heavy lifting for all of us. TBH this is a bigger debate than Covid in that essentially most employers assume you are lying if you can't make it to work or, if possible, want to work at home because of health reasons. Hence you get people drag themselves into work with a bug that then runs through the office over the next couple of weeks.

Are we really going to go back to that now?

 

[Weststander]

i was raising this week or so before Christmas. data from SA was clear the effect were benign, all we heard was "too early to say". not just here, across Europe and US, didnt want to hear/see the data from SA. bit shameful really as its so obvious.

I did see your posts and from others in mid-Dec, plus in open minded parts of the media, reporting the RSA scientists early findings. They weren't forceful, simply passing on real world data and perplexed as to why other nations ignored them.

 

[dazzer6666]

I always thought viruses mutated towards weaker versions - certainly Spanish Flu never went anywhere and you don't hear about it anymore - but apparently not always the case and I imagine there could be a few bumps along that road with stronger strains in the short term.

If someone was admitted to hospital with, for example, a broken leg, and failed a Covid test they would still have to be treated differently to other patients and could infect staff and other patients. I get the point but it tends to be an argument used by people who are trying to argue it isn't that bad and we don't need further restrictions.

Self protection is all well and good but that in essence means some professions, such as teachers, will be doing the heavy lifting for all of us. TBH this is a bigger debate than Covid in that essentially most employers assume you are lying if you can't make it to work or, if possible, want to work at home because of health reasons. Hence you get people drag themselves into work with a bug that then runs through the office over the next couple of weeks.

Are we really going to go back to that now?

Sorry, read that a couple of times and I don’t get the point you’re making.

We aren’t at a place yet where we know whether it ‘isn’t that bad’. If 000s are ending up in hospital (absolute numbers are the key here not %) then it’s still ‘bad’.

Disagree with most employers assuming you are lying. Sick martyrs coming into the office and spreading their germs everywhere used to really piss me off and is worse than a few swinging the lead. Stay at home FFS.

 

[A1X]

There's an enormous problem with government by lies. The government - like all governments - is a bit mistrusted. But, when the government says this is necessary because it's dangerous and you might die if you don't do as we say - then, by and large, we do it.

But then if it appears that the government has been telling lies - and I think it has - then what happens next time there's an emergency? The government tells us this is dangerous, and we don't believe them.

This whole Government basically runs on lies. It’s the WD40 which keeps them running. Which is why people listen to the Whitty, Vallance and Van Tam axis, not whatever Johnson spaffs out.

 

[Poojah]

I did see your posts and from others in mid-Dec, plus in open minded parts of the media, reporting the RSA scientists early findings. They weren't forceful, simply passing on real world data and perplexed as to why other nations ignored them.

Let’s not forget what was dominating the headlines in the days running up the the kerfuffle about Omicron. I felt at the time, and still feel now, that the scale of the problem was catastrophised to divert attention. Which in fairness, it did, because no ones talking about parties or cheese and wine now are they?

 

[Weststander]

Let’s not forget what was dominating the headlines in the days running up the the kerfuffle about Omicron. I felt at the time, and still feel now, that the scale of the problem was catastrophised to divert attention. Which in fairness, it did, because no ones talking about parties or cheese and wine now are they?

A question - why did Sturgeon, Drakeford and Macron react exactly the same at the time, in fact with more melodramatic language?

I've never heard "crisis" uttered so much.

 

[Poojah]

A question - why did Sturgeon, Drakeford and Macron react exactly the same at the time, in fact with more melodramatic language?

I've never heard "crisis" uttered so much.

Their response throughout the whole pandemic has been to go a bit earlier and a bit harder than Boris (and generally correctly so). It’s almost a reflex now.

I’m not sure how much independent data they had access to, but I think they saw England seemingly panicking and panicked even more. I might be wrong on this, but I think the actions of Scotland and Wales in response to Omicron have been some of the strictest in the world, at least amongst highly vaccinated nations. They’re out of step, frankly.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

As I said it looks now like Scotland and Wales might have been overly cautious. Then again me and you have never had to make potential life and death decision about people's lives so I am more than willing to cut them some slack (not that living in England that means much).

So why haven’t they reversed it? All political

Drakeford is costing people jobs and businesses to try and blame the Tories.

He would have plunged Wales into lockdown if he could.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

Wow those extra restrictions in Scotland have really paid off. Well done Krankie.

 

[Weststander]

Wow those extra restrictions in Scotland have really paid off. Well done Krankie.

Because people switched to socialising in home gatherings and parties instead.

A point picked up on by some virologists a year ago and when Sturgeon cancelled post-Xmas 2021 living.

 

[e77]

Sorry, read that a couple of times and I don’t get the point you’re making.

We aren’t at a place yet where we know whether it ‘isn’t that bad’. If 000s are ending up in hospital (absolute numbers are the key here not %) then it’s still ‘bad’.

Disagree with most employers assuming you are lying. Sick martyrs coming into the office and spreading their germs everywhere used to really piss me off and is worse than a few swinging the lead. Stay at home FFS.

My point is some people are talking like we have won the war. We are doing very well in the battle so far (although obviously one person dying of it is one person too many).

I have been a contractor for the last decade or so so don't get sick pay and have had three days of sick, two for vertigo and one for, shall we say, over doing it the night before, but I have dragged myself in with all sort of coughs and sneezes because I remember the return to work interviews you used to have when coming back to work (I have sat on both sides of the desk doing them) and if you were off ill more than a couple of times in a few months it was looked down on. Granted this will vary from employer to employer and might have changed since I was a permanent employee but it hardly encouraged you to keep an infectious disease out of your workplace.

I know it will vary from job to job but with home working where possible people should be encouraged to stay at home when ill.

 

[e77]

So why haven’t they reversed it? All political

Drakeford is costing people jobs and businesses to try and blame the Tories.

He would have plunged Wales into lockdown if he could.

This is the most recent poll I can find in Wales and whatever he is doing it seems quite popular Labour are 13-points ahead in the polls in Wales. In fairness what he is doing is fairly common amongst the rest of the world so he is hardly an outlier.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

This is the most recent poll I can find in Wales and whatever he is doing it seems quite popular Labour are 13-points ahead in the polls in Wales. In fairness what he is doing is fairly common amongst the rest of the world so he is hardly an outlier.

Doesn’t mean what he’s doing is right, he got arsey when people pointed it out to him

Notice how he doesn’t criticise the Welsh Rugby Union team for moving games? If he was that worried he would block it and put police on the border again.

The boosting and vaccinating along side the July 19th opening and infection immunity means we are in a much better place than other countries.

Our cases are now dropping (hopefully stays that way) rest of Europe are not - because they are pushing people into limited spaces

 

[e77]

Doesn’t mean what he’s doing is right, he got arsey when people pointed it out to him

Notice how he doesn’t criticise the Welsh Rugby Union team for moving games? If he was that worried he would block it and put police on the border again.

The boosting and vaccinating along side the July 19th opening and infection immunity means we are in a much better place than other countries.

Our cases are now dropping (hopefully stays that way) rest of Europe are not - because they are pushing people into limited spaces

He did also lend England 4 million Covid tests so let's not run away with the Wales Bad, England Good narrative.

So you re criticising him for being overly cautious - over restrictions - and for not being cautious enough over the Rugby? Which one is it?

Waled did move to what they call Level 0 on the 5th if August which as far as I can see was the same as England part from face coverings being worn more (which we did reintroduce later).

 

[Weststander]

This is the most recent poll I can find in Wales and whatever he is doing it seems quite popular Labour are 13-points ahead in the polls in Wales. In fairness what he is doing is fairly common amongst the rest of the world so he is hardly an outlier.

Drakeford had a 15% margin at the 2019 GE, Wales is and always has been Labour. Maintaining that isn’t a miracle, when the UK media have given wall to wall car crash TV over Westminster decision making over the last 22 months. Sturgeon and Drakeford are politically clever, appearing presidential with a very grave tone, as they announce more and more restrictions, whilst crying foul in seeking central funds over and above the £100b’s printed by the Bank of England for furlough, SEISS, etc.

The strict rules haven’t made a relative difference. Despite NOT having the part unvax’d melting pot of 8m population London, plus Gatwick and Heathrow and the vast conurbations in England, total excess deaths per capita in Wales match England’s almost exactly.

If the pandemic’s effects are similar between nations, we should never dismiss the adverse effects of lockdowns and restrictions on cancer diagnoses (CancerUK have calculated 50,000 missing diagnoses, all told), kids mental health, adults mental health, on businesses, jobs and livelihoods.

 

[e77]

Drakeford had a 15% margin at the 2019 GE, Wales is and always has been Labour. Maintaining that isn’t a miracle, when the UK media have given wall to wall car crash TV over Westminster decision making over the last 22 months. Sturgeon and Drakeford are politically clever, appearing presidential with a very grave tone, as they announce more and more restrictions, whilst crying foul in seeking central funds over and above the £100b’s printed by the Bank of England for furlough, SEISS, etc.

The strict rules haven’t made a relative difference. Despite NOT having the part unvax’d melting pot of 8m population London, plus Gatwick and Heathrow and the vast conurbations in England, total excess deaths per capita in Wales match England’s almost exactly.

If the pandemic’s effects are similar between nations, we should never dismiss the adverse effects of lockdowns and restrictions on cancer diagnoses (CancerUK have calculated 50,000 missing diagnoses, all told), kids mental health, adults mental health, on businesses, jobs and livelihoods.

Boris Johnson won the last election by 11% and he has seemingly blown that lead so it isn't always the case. I don't think the First Ministers of Scotland and Wales engaging in political manoeuvres to try and secure a better deal for their countries is really that surprising.

Covid reproduces via face to face contact (it can remain on a surface and spread but that isn't that common) and we will never know what would have happened if England and Wales swapped restrictions. Certainly we have seen in the past areas seem to take turns being badly effected, London seems to have peaked now and it might just be Wales turn. Other than banning large events, which is admittedly a big decision with impact, I am not sure you could describe the current restrictions in Wales as that Draconian by the standards of the last couple of years.

The argument about stopping treating other illnesses and mental health has often been brought out during the pandemic and I would simply point out of there was no restrictions more people would be in hospital, causing other treatments to be delayed and extending the pandemic.