Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

Do you have a link please? This article has me worried.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...er-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.


Three months? Good luck with that

 

[vegster]

Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.


Three months? Good luck with that

Is a return to Step 2 restrictions really a surprise? This is probably what should have happened a few days ago when Johnson and the cabinet met to review the figures .. Johnson has lost all credibility to lead, and was unable to get this past them without major fallout....so, no decision was made and the can was kicked down the road til post Christmas.

Additionally, if Johnson had tried to limit the size of gatherings and imposed any sort of limits on where and how people should meet, he would be laughed at given all the pictures and evidence of Downing Street parties... Who would obey rules set by the Liar In Chief which he himself, ignores? ... So the case numbers have to pile up until there is no alternative.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

 

[Weststander]

Even Dr Jenny sounded cautiously optimistic today…….any immediate further restrictions look pretty unlikely

As did a normally very cautious Dr Sarah Jarvis on the Jeremy Vine show yesterday. Whilst in no way downplaying the case numbers and effect on London, she felt the current restrictions in England were just about right for now. She felt the next examination should be in 7 days time.

 

[dazzer6666]

Is a return to Step 2 restrictions really a surprise? This is probably what should have happened a few days ago when Johnson and the cabinet met to review the figures .. Johnson has lost all credibility to lead, and was unable to get this past them without major fallout....so, no decision was made and the can was kicked down the road til post Christmas.

Additionally, if Johnson had tried to limit the size of gatherings and imposed any sort of limits on where and how people should meet, he would be laughed at given all the pictures and evidence of Downing Street parties... Who would obey rules set by the Liar In Chief which he himself, ignores? ... So the case numbers have to pile up until there is no alternative.

We’ll see…..if hospitalisation numbers remain under control it won’t be necessary, and the bungling clown will have got something right (even if for the wrong reasons perhaps)

 

[Weststander]

It’s not all doom and gloom, governments and scientists must be doing a load of things right. Lives being saves, full blown lockdowns (with their huge cost on mental health and livelihoods) deferred or even avoided. The vast majority of the public have been doing the right thing, taking personal responsibility.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Is a return to Step 2 restrictions really a surprise? This is probably what should have happened a few days ago when Johnson and the cabinet met to review the figures .. Johnson has lost all credibility to lead, and was unable to get this past them without major fallout....so, no decision was made and the can was kicked down the road til post Christmas.

Additionally, if Johnson had tried to limit the size of gatherings and imposed any sort of limits on where and how people should meet, he would be laughed at given all the pictures and evidence of Downing Street parties... Who would obey rules set by the Liar In Chief which he himself, ignores? ... So the case numbers have to pile up until there is no alternative.

He’s not the only one Is he Drakeford has been found to telling a few whoppers ….and I don’t see much being said about the collateral damage of lockdowns by those who seem quite keen on them

 

[dsr-burnley]

Do you have a link please? This article has me worried.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...er-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

I think the Guardian and some of the SAGE scientists are still looking at the statistics that show omicron is so much less deadly than delta, and trying to work out how the statistics can be so wrong.

 

[The Wizard]

Three members of my house, older relative tested positive Monday, her partner and closest contact is still negative. I’ve tested positive this morning after a negative PCR test on Thursday and negative all week on LFT.

I’m in my twenties and the good news is I have zero symptoms and my older relative has a mild cough but nothing worse than a normal cold, touch wood.

Merry Christmas eh

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

Three members of my house, older relative tested positive Monday, her partner and closest contact is still negative. I’ve tested positive this morning after a negative PCR test on Thursday and negative all week on LFT.

I’m in my twenties and the good news is I have zero symptoms and my older relative has a mild cough but nothing worse than a normal cold, touch wood.

Merry Christmas eh

Good luck, and indeed a very merry Christmas

 

[dazzer6666]

Fascinating stuff……..(BBC)

South African scientists - hailed for their discovery of Omicron - are investigating the "highly plausible hypothesis" that the emergence of new Covid-19 variants could be linked, in some cases, to mutations taking place inside infected people whose immune systems have already been weakened by other factors, including, though not limited to, untreated HIV.
Researchers have already observed that Covid-19 can linger for many months in patients who are HIV positive but who have, for varying reasons, not been taking the medicines that would enable them to lead healthy lives.
"Normally your immune system would kick a virus out fairly quickly, if fully functional," said Professor Linda-Gayle Bekker, who heads the Desmond Tutu HIV Foundation in Cape Town.
"In someone where immunity is suppressed, then we see virus persisting. And it doesn't just sit around, it replicates. And as it replicates it undergoes potential mutations. And in somebody where immunity is suppressed that virus may be able to continue for many months - mutating as it goes," she added.
But, as they push ahead with their research, the scientists are anxious to avoid further stigmatising people living with HIV, both in South Africa - home to the world's largest HIV epidemic - and globally.
"It's important to stress that people who are on anti-retroviral medication - that does restore their immunity," Professor Bekker said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59697807

 

[vegster]

He’s not the only one Is he Drakeford has been found to telling a few whoppers ….and I don’t see much being said about the collateral damage of lockdowns by those who seem quite keen on them

Crikey.! Johnson and Drakeford are leagues apart when it comes to porkies. More worrying for me is the talk that Wannabe Tory leaders jostling to replace Johnson have been warned by the Looney fringe that they must not impose any further controls to stop the spread or lose said Looneys support for their leadership bid....So, the Tory party are playing politics with our lives.... Shitheads.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Crikey.! Johnson and Drakeford are leagues apart when it comes to porkies. More worrying for me is the talk that Wannabe Tory leaders jostling to replace Johnson have been warned by the Looney fringe that they must not impose any further controls to stop the spread or lose said Looneys support for their leadership bid....So, the Tory party are playing politics with our lives.... Shitheads.

I’m not sure I was measuring the number of porkies…and in my opinion it’s naive not to think Drakeford isn’t playing politics

 

[Weststander]

I’m not sure I was measuring the number of porkies…and in my opinion it’s naive not to think Drakeford isn’t playing politics

Sturgeon and Drakeford play politics too, it’s in their dna. Grandstanding to appear presidential, Sturgeon always with one eye on the long game.

Wales and Scotland have had high Covid deaths too.

Only a left wing fantasist would falsely paint a picture of Wales and Scotland handling Covid far better than anywhere else. They haven’t. Wales and Scotland both allowed unlimited socialising this Christmas …. you won’t read that from people hellbent on falsely painting England as the Covid death capital of Europe (AKA liars).

 

[e77]

Fascinating stuff……..(BBC)

South African scientists - hailed for their discovery of Omicron - are investigating the "highly plausible hypothesis" that the emergence of new Covid-19 variants could be linked, in some cases, to mutations taking place inside infected people whose immune systems have already been weakened by other factors, including, though not limited to, untreated HIV.
Researchers have already observed that Covid-19 can linger for many months in patients who are HIV positive but who have, for varying reasons, not been taking the medicines that would enable them to lead healthy lives.
"Normally your immune system would kick a virus out fairly quickly, if fully functional," said Professor Linda-Gayle Bekker, who heads the Desmond Tutu HIV Foundation in Cape Town.
"In someone where immunity is suppressed, then we see virus persisting. And it doesn't just sit around, it replicates. And as it replicates it undergoes potential mutations. And in somebody where immunity is suppressed that virus may be able to continue for many months - mutating as it goes," she added.
But, as they push ahead with their research, the scientists are anxious to avoid further stigmatising people living with HIV, both in South Africa - home to the world's largest HIV epidemic - and globally.
"It's important to stress that people who are on anti-retroviral medication - that does restore their immunity," Professor Bekker said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59697807

Certainly interesting. On the back of this post I looked up HIV rates in South Africa and apparently it is 13% amongst all South Africans and 19% amongst 15-49s. In 2017 a quarter of all deaths in South Africa were attributable to AIDS (for comparison it is 0.16% in the UK)

All the more argument that Covid needs to be sorted out globally before we are all in a better place.

 

[Springal]

Wasn’t sure where to put this but a few stupid covid tales from within our family :

1 relative is 100. Almost all the family decided against visiting the care home this week for obvious reasons. The home decided to throw a party instead and booked some entertainment. Guess what happened next….. entertainer had covid and few residents have it home completely shut.

Another Relative - frontline NHS worker had been relying on lateral flows, consistently negative so going about business. Had symptoms so made take PCR - positive. Possibly given it to grandparents delivering shopping last week. One of which has underlying lung problems…. Even worse said NHS trust want them back on day 6 as they are so desperate for staff !

 

[Weststander]

Wasn’t sure where to put this but a few stupid covid tales from within our family :

1 relative is 100. Almost all the family decided against visiting the care home this week for obvious reasons. The home decided to throw a party instead and booked some entertainment. Guess what happened next….. entertainer had covid and few residents have it home completely shut.

Another Relative - frontline NHS worker had been relying on lateral flows, consistently negative so going about business. Had symptoms so made take PCR - positive. Possibly given it to grandparents delivering shopping last week. One of which has underlying lung problems…. Even worse said NHS trust want them back on day 6 as they are so desperate for staff !

They can’t be compelled to go back on day 6. Even if they follow the new self isolation rules of getting negative LFT results on days 6 and 7, ending self isolation early, they’d still have to have no symptoms and feel well in themselves.

 

[Springal]

They can’t be compelled to go back on day 6. Even if they follow the new self isolation rules of getting negative LFT results on days 6 and 7, ending self isolation early, they’d still have to have no symptoms and feel well in themselves.

Indeed. But surprised it was even asked ! And if the lateral flows were always a negative any way in this case even more unwise to be used as a judgement

 

[dazzer6666]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/25/dodgy-data-used-push-tighter-covid-restrictions/

One of Britain’s most senior health advisers has been accused of disseminating “dodgy data” that inflated the potential risk of omicron.

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), is understood to have been the source of a contested claim by Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, that there is typically a 17-day lag between patients becoming infected and requiring hospitalisation.

However, independent experts pointed to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, which suggested an average delay of nine or 10 days.

The claim by Mr Javid was seen as an attempt to strengthen the case for urgent new Covid-19 restrictions, on the basis that the country could be on the brink of a major spike in hospitalisations due to omicron.

Dr Harries has claimed that omicron was “probably the most significant threat we’ve had since the start of the pandemic”.

Health and scientific advisers have been pushing for lockdown measures and Boris Johnson will have to urgently decide whether or not to impose new restrictions before the New Year.

However, government sources have suggested that is now unlikely, based on the latest data and a wall of opposition from Conservative backbenchers and ministers.

The latest UKHSA data show that people infected with the variant were between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital than with delta. Daily meetings of the Cabinet’s Covid Operations committee will resume on Monday.

At the time of Mr Javid’s claim last weekend, despite soaring cases, only 85 people were in hospital with confirmed omicron, a figure that has since risen to 366.

Simon Briscoe, a former Treasury statistician, said that the 17-day figure appeared to be either a “deliberate statistical sleight of hand designed to deceive, or incompetence”.

If deliberate, he added, it seemed that officials were “in effect trying to buy time, as officials realise that data of rising hospitalisations is needed to justify lockdown”.

 

[highflyer]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/25/dodgy-data-used-push-tighter-covid-restrictions/

One of Britain’s most senior health advisers has been accused of disseminating “dodgy data” that inflated the potential risk of omicron.

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), is understood to have been the source of a contested claim by Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, that there is typically a 17-day lag between patients becoming infected and requiring hospitalisation.

However, independent experts pointed to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, which suggested an average delay of nine or 10 days.

The claim by Mr Javid was seen as an attempt to strengthen the case for urgent new Covid-19 restrictions, on the basis that the country could be on the brink of a major spike in hospitalisations due to omicron.

Dr Harries has claimed that omicron was “probably the most significant threat we’ve had since the start of the pandemic”.

Health and scientific advisers have been pushing for lockdown measures and Boris Johnson will have to urgently decide whether or not to impose new restrictions before the New Year.

However, government sources have suggested that is now unlikely, based on the latest data and a wall of opposition from Conservative backbenchers and ministers.

The latest UKHSA data show that people infected with the variant were between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital than with delta. Daily meetings of the Cabinet’s Covid Operations committee will resume on Monday.

At the time of Mr Javid’s claim last weekend, despite soaring cases, only 85 people were in hospital with confirmed omicron, a figure that has since risen to 366.

Simon Briscoe, a former Treasury statistician, said that the 17-day figure appeared to be either a “deliberate statistical sleight of hand designed to deceive, or incompetence”.

If deliberate, he added, it seemed that officials were “in effect trying to buy time, as officials realise that data of rising hospitalisations is needed to justify lockdown”.

This is irresponsible sh*tstirring from the DT

There was very limited data and still pleny of unknowns now. The potential has been there for things to go horribly pear shaped. There have been valid arguments on both sides and any decisions had massive potential consequences. Even now we don't know for certain whether the decision to hold off furher restrictions was the correct one or not. Turning this debate into an extension of the culture war (as we see endlessly here) just makes you look an arse IMO. Whether that is pretending that a few people having a meeting in a garden is the worse thing that anyone has ever done or the right wing fantasists stroking thekr own egos by making speeches in parliament about 'freedom'.

None of us really know anything and most of us are trying to do the right thing, trusting those that know a damn sight more than us and get through this as best we can.