Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

BREAKING: Even Professor Neil Ferguson now says Omicron is MILDER than Delta - new report

 

[pb21]

BREAKING: Even Professor Neil Ferguson now says Omicron is MILDER than Delta - new report

Hasn't that generally been accepted as being the most likely scenario by essentially everyone for a couple of weeks now?

The issue is how much more mild is it and how many people will get it and over what time frame.

 

[Butch Willykins]

BREAKING: Even Professor Neil Ferguson now says Omicron is MILDER than Delta - new report

FFS. The bloke has NEVER got anything right in his life. This is a kiss of death.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Hasn't that generally been accepted as being the most likely scenario by essentially everyone for a couple of weeks now?

The issue is how much more mild is it and how many people will get it and over what time frame.

I’m not so sure it has been accepted as a likely scenario, judging by the actions of various people in authority

 

[Machiavelli]

Then we should also ban booze, bad food, and lack of exercise all of which contribute massive numbers to death and cancer.

Booze attracts duty on top of VAT, fags have attracted escalator taxes for decades, the sugar tax is a recent introduction and a decent government would extend it. The encouragement of exercise should flow from much of those taxes collected.
I've got Covid currently, it's very mild and short-lasting. And this is probably because I've had three vaccinations.

 

[pb21]

I’m not so sure it has been accepted as a likely scenario, judging by the actions of various people in authority

IMO we would have seen more draconian restrictions by now if 'they' thought it was likely to be as (or more) severe in terms of hospitalisations/deaths, than previous variants.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

IMO we would have seen more draconian restrictions by now if 'they' thought it was likely to be as (or more) severe in terms of hospitalisations/deaths, than previous variants.

Have a look at the leaked sage minutes. Thankfully Johnson resisted till now

 

[A1X]

[tweet]1473564079100944391[/tweet]

 

[sparkie]

Independent SAGE are saying that the Vaccine doesn’t stop you catching omicrom. So what difference are the unvaxxed making exactly?

“Omicron is extremely transmissible. If anyone in a moderately-sized social gathering indoors (e.g., ten people meeting up in a house for Christmas dinner) has Omicron, most people are likely to become infected, regardless of vaccine status. “

https://www.independentsage.org/making-a-plan-for-household-mixing-december-2021/

A vaccine cannot prevent a virus going up a nose and infecting the person.

What it does do is supercharge the infected's immune system to destroy the virus when it is there.

So a vaccinated infectee has a much shorter time period to pass on the virus before it is nuked by their antibodies and T-cells.

But in an unvaccinated infectee the virus is free to linger and has a much longer time frame to be passed on.

 

[Roland]

[tweet]1473564079100944391[/tweet]

Weird how not one number or actual stat in that piece

 

[pb21]

Have a look at the leaked sage minutes. Thankfully Johnson resisted till now

Reading the story tonight it seems that the lower severity is factored into the Sage minutes of upto 3,000 daily hospital admissions.

Ferguson said that while it [a 20%-25% reduced chance of a hospital visit and at least a 40% lower risk of being admitted overnight] was “good news”, the assessment did not substantially change Sage modelling pointing to 3,000 daily hospitalisations in England at the peak of the wave next month without restrictions beyond the plan B measures currently in place

If the anticipated severity was reasonably expected to be higher then the daily hospitalisations would have been higher and its likely tht further measures would have already been introduced.

 

[dsr-burnley]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ower-with-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-suggests

I don't know if what Ferguson says makes sense to anyone else, but it doesn't to me.

1. They have discovered from actual, real world evidence that people with omicron are 40-45% less likely to need an overnight hospital stay than people with delta.

2. This is offset by the vaccine being less effective against omicron than against delta. WHAT? The effectiveness of the vaccine is automatically taken into account in the numbers of patients going to hospital.

3. The assessment does not substantially change SAGE modelling pointing to 3,000 daily hospitalisations. WHAT? A reduction of 40% in the number of hospitalisations does not substantially change the number of hospitalisations?

4. The analysis shows evidence of a moderate reduction ... WHAT? It's a reduction by nearly half. That's better than "moderate".

Am I missing something here? Ferguson's presumably an intelligent man. Is he treating us all like idiots, or am I the idiot because what he says makes little sense to me?

 

[Weststander]

Early days, but interesting comparisons. With the need to minimise the explosion of case numbers.

Data source: UKHSA

 

[sydney]

Hasn't that generally been accepted as being the most likely scenario by essentially everyone for a couple of weeks now?

The issue is how much more mild is it and how many people will get it and over what time frame.

This was the original comment made by South African scientists two weeks ago.

 

[nicko31]

The Omicron variant of coronavirus appears to be milder, with a 20%-25% reduced chance of a hospital visit. Problem is infections are way more than 25% higher

So do we have a problem at least in the short term?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Weird how not one number or actual stat in that piece

Weird that you think the unvaccinated taking up ICU beds is acceptable.


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[dwayne]

For anyone that wants to read a really depressing article...merry Xmas ....

https://eand.co/the-lesson-of-omicron-is-that-were-now-in-a-covid-doom-loop-978284a78b0f

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[Deportivo Seagull]

The Omicron variant of coronavirus appears to be milder, with a 20%-25% reduced chance of a hospital visit. Problem is infections are way more than 25% higher

So do we have a problem at least in the short term?

The view is that Omicron is milder but still a major issue if you are unvaccinated hence majority of people in ICU being unvaccinated.
My view, for what’s it worths, is that short term it’s very much an issue but long term things are looking much more upbeat.


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[dwayne]

The view is that Omicron is milder but still a major issue if you are unvaccinated hence majority of people in ICU being unvaccinated.
My view, for what’s it worths, is that short term it’s very much an issue but long term things are looking much more upbeat.


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Until Omi combines with something else and we have the next wave. Doesn't feel like an end is in sight at the moment.

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[Deportivo Seagull]

That’s admissions not beds taken and nearly all over 60. So unvaccinated under 60 are barely a problem at all. Thanks for clarifying,

Over 60 =51.5
Under 60 = 16.7

So a third of all unvaccinated were under 60 …..


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