Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

once again news being driven by high-end estimates not supported in current data. and seemingly assume vaccines arent having any effect.

Ignore the sensationalist news, cherry-picking the scariest-sounding stuff, and invest time going to the source, reading it and understand it then.

For example in the paper in question, the 7,000/day admissions is stated as being highly unlikely as it would requires vaccine efficacy to wear off far faster than anyone expects and/or a significantly nastier variant to arise, and for the population to not do anything about that, nor change behaviour.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

Models aren't predictions. A lot of people (maybe not you) fail to grasp this fundamental principle.

A model attempts to define a possible end result, or range of end results, based on a set of inputs and assumptions.

Attempting to model the likely courses of a pandemic where you have c66 million moving parts, a huge number of variables and numerous unknowns is clearly incredibly difficult. But should we just not bother? Should we just cross our fingers and see what happens? Or should a responsible government attempt to understand the scenarios they may have to deal with, in order that they can plan for the worst (whilst hoping for the best)?

I suspect if I could be arsed to delve back into this thread to around this time last year I would find the same old names, who've never attempted to model anything of note in their lives, slinging mud at Messrs Vallance and Whitty based on them indicating that the UK could be in for a rough winter. Apparently, they were trying to scare everyone without good reason. How did last winter turn out in the end?

My use of the word prediction was clearly wrong. I still stand by the point that the man in the street is ikley to see such a disparity between the numbers and not understand how this can be so,

You have so eloquently described how this works scientifically. However in reality you get the likes of Crodo who jumps on the doom and gloom wagon and focuses solely on the high end of the scale or you get the likes of dsr and KG who say these numbers are being talked up for some purpose.

I'm guessing those in the middle ground tend to not bother visiting this thread anymore, as you pretty much know exactly what you're going to get on a daily basis, rinse and repeat.

As you said, looking back at a similar conversation last September/October may have been interesting.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Why are you like this?

I'm certain that you understand what the difference is between now and last Autumn - so why are you pretending that we aren't in a completely different place now compared to back then?

Probably works as a journalist. It's easier to get noticed with sensationalism.

 

[nicko31]

To put into perspective at the height of the January peak there were approx 4,000 daily hospitalisations. 7,000 is huge and unsustainable. Surely now reintroducing some basic baseline measures can help the NHS avoid those sorts of figures?? Let's not make the same mistakes of last early Autumn.

So does anyone know the number of deaths we need to get to or number of hospitalisations we need before Bojo's plan B gets initiated?

 

[beorhthelm]

So does anyone know the number of deaths we need to get to or number of hospitalisations we need before Bojo's plan B gets initiated?

more likely measured in column inches negative or dB of complaints on TV.

 

[Bozza]

Why are you like this?

I'm certain that you understand what the difference is between now and last Autumn - so why are you pretending that we aren't in a completely different place now compared to back then?

Well, by all published metrics we are in a considerably worse position than we were this time last year. Figures below are 2020 / 2021:

Cases (7-day ave) 3,465 / 31,772
People in hospital: 982 / 8,340
Deaths (7-day ave) 15 / 130

Is that the difference you allude to? I suspect you were suggesting that we are iin a much better position than last Autumn. The numbers don't really support that though, do they?

Vaccines have undoubtedly been a positive game changer, unfortunately that has been more than offset by Delta changing the game in the opposite direction.

I'm far from doom-and-gloom about any of this, but I can certainly understand why someone would look at the numbers, particularly our high starting point as we head towards autumn and winter, and feel there is cause for genuine concern.

 

[Bozza]

My use of the word prediction was clearly wrong. I still stand by the point that the man in the street is ikley to see such a disparity between the numbers and not understand how this can be so,

You have so eloquently described how this works scientifically. However in reality you get the likes of Crodo who jumps on the doom and gloom wagon and focuses solely on the high end of the scale or you get the likes of dsr and KG who say these numbers are being talked up for some purpose.

I'm guessing those in the middle ground tend to not bother visiting this thread anymore, as you pretty much know exactly what you're going to get on a daily basis, rinse and repeat.

As you said, looking back at a similar conversation last September/October may have been interesting.

Sorry, I wasn't have a pop in your direction at all, despite your use of the word prediction.

My wrath is reserved for those who lap up click-baity media sensationalism and then resort to mocking instead of spending some time to try and dive into the detail.

7,000 hospitaltions a day sounds mad doesn't it? At least it does to me. But my reaction is to consider that these model outputs have come from people who are considered to be very good at what they do, unlike me who doesn't have any idea how to try to model a pandemic. So I think if a reported output looks ridiculous, there must be something more to it. So I head off to Google, try to find the source and have a read. And, in this case when I got there, I find that the numbers that are being reported are stated by the modellers themselves as being highly unlikely.

Again, though, every responsible government needs to be aware of worst case scenarios so they can plan for them, even if they hope to never having to use those plans.

 

[Bozza]

You also mention a 'starting point' as if it's going to follow the same trend as 2020. It's not now, and nor will it this winter. We're an immune population now, so we will see peaks and troughs rather than a continuous increase until January. We will also see considerably more covid cases this winter than winter 2020... and yet considerably fewer deaths.

So Chris Whitty, the country's Chief Medical Officer says that no-one knows how the next few months are going to play out and, let's be clear, I'm not making any predictions, but here you are doing precisely that.

Are you able to share your modelling calculations with us please?

 

[dsr-burnley]

Well, by all published metrics we are in a considerably worse position than we were this time last year. Figures below are 2020 / 2021:

Cases (7-day ave) 3,465 / 31,772
People in hospital: 982 / 8,340
Deaths (7-day ave) 15 / 130

Is that the difference you allude to? I suspect you were suggesting that we are iin a much better position than last Autumn. The numbers don't really support that though, do they?

Vaccines have undoubtedly been a positive game changer, unfortunately that has been more than offset by Delta changing the game in the opposite direction.

I'm far from doom-and-gloom about any of this, but I can certainly understand why someone would look at the numbers, particularly our high starting point as we head towards autumn and winter, and feel there is cause for genuine concern.

Looking at snapshot figures on the same date is irrelevant. You might as well look at the weather in week 26 one year, find it was cooler than week 26 the previous year, and decide that global warming has ended.

Coronavirus doesn't work on a calendar year basis. Just because numbers are low in August and rose in September one year, does not mean they have to be low in august and rise in September every year. Last year this diesease undoubtedly came in waves and we were at the low point of a wave. This year it appears likely that the disease is becoming endemic which makes a difference to how it spreads.

If any of us count the points our football team won in June 2021, and compare it with the points we won in June 2020, would we have cause for concern? No, because we aren't comparing like figures with like figures. It's the same with calendar-date comparisons of coronavirus.

 

[Bozza]

Looking at snapshot figures on the same date is irrelevant. You might as well look at the weather in week 26 one year, find it was cooler than week 26 the previous year, and decide that global warming has ended.

As I've stated repeatedly, I'm not doom-and-gloom and I'm not saying "we're in for a load of shit".

But I can understand why someone looking at the figures - and it's not just a day/week snapshot - the whole of the summer months this year have been worse by most (probably: all) metrics than last summer - may have concern.

Put the numbers aside anyway, if you wish - I'd rather listen to the likes of Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance who are striking cautionary tones, than an unqualified bloke on a football messageboard with a posting history of the weird and wonderful.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Sorry, I wasn't have a pop in your direction at all, despite your use of the word prediction.

My wrath is reserved for those who lap up click-baity media sensationalism and then resort to mocking instead of spending some time to try and dive into the detail.

7,000 hospitaltions a day sounds mad doesn't it? At least it does to me. But my reaction is to consider that these model outputs have come from people who are considered to be very good at what they do, unlike me who doesn't have any idea how to try to model a pandemic. So I think if a reported output looks ridiculous, there must be something more to it. So I head off to Google, try to find the source and have a read. And, in this case when I got there, I find that the numbers that are being reported are stated by the modellers themselves as being highly unlikely.

Again, though, every responsible government needs to be aware of worst case scenarios so they can plan for them, even if they hope to never having to use those plans.

Frustrating as it is, I think the complexity is a challenge for most people and the confirmation bias is all too easy to reach for.

1 Everyone knows someone who has been double jabbed and been infected (ergo vaccines don't work).
2 I have been walking around without a mask or a jab and I haven't died yet (ergo the whole thing is a massive waste of time and only singles out weaklings).

If we are going to have to live with this in the long term, some of the thinking needs to become more long term. The most obvious question is how do we ventilate public buildings better, to reduce virus levels in circulation?
What long term behavioural changes do we need to make? Probably mask wearing in crowded places and regular vaccine top ups for the vulnerable.

 

[Billy the Fish]

So Chris Whitty, the country's Chief Medical Officer says that no-one knows how the next few months are going to play out and, let's be clear, I'm not making any predictions, but here you are doing precisely that.

Are you able to share your modelling calculations with us please?

I'd imagine the CMO needs to be a bit more cautious about what he puts on the public domain than any of us. If Chris Whitty had time to anonymously post on a footy forum I reckon he might have a stab in the dark prediction.

FWIW I think [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] isn't far wrong. This is it now forever, peaks and troughs to match immunity levels. Once covid is done with the unvaccinated the height of the peaks will surely depend on how long immunity lasts.

Disclaimer: This is based in what I've seen and read so far and is no better than anyone else's speculation.

 

[e77]

Those who will protest the most if Plan B happens due to rising cases will do the least to prevent it happening by refusing to modify their behaviour while it is still optional.

Anyone who listened would have heard that there is no silver bullet to get us out of this mess, although the vaccine get's fairly close. I am sure [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] will oblige with his Swiss Cheese metaphor but things like the vaccine, mask wearing, social distancing and hand washing won't eliminate the risk of catching it on their own but combined reduce the chances of catching it considerably.

Also immunity isn't a binary thing, it is a sliding scale. You can still be wiped out for a fortnight with it when vaccinated but the vaccine has still done it's job.

 

[e77]

Disagree.

I am not modifying my behaviour while it's still optional. I am 100% back to normal and have been for a while now.

Yet I fully expect Plan B will happen. Influenza causes the NHS problems every winter, but this one is going to be one hell of a flu season, on top of covid cases. The NHS is going to be in for a hard time and almost certainly will need to be helped a bit by the government's Plan B, which I completely agree with too.

You are very much an exception.

I agree on the Flu front, although the relative lack of people going between North and South Hemispheres might help.

 

[Stuart Munday]

Four in my daughters class now have Covid as well as both year teachers, we have just been told that the school is going back to bubbles and social distancing and masks for parents. At least unlike last term the whole year won’t have to isolate for 10 days but it doesn’t look good at the moment.

 

[Weststander]

You are very much an exception.

I agree on the Flu front, although the relative lack of people going between North and South Hemispheres might help.

North Stand concourse - not a mask in sight.
My trip to the supermarket in the last hour - I was the only mask-wearer, staff happily not bothering and in close proximity to each other.
A packed train journey back from London 6pm last Friday - not one mask-wearer.

I think [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] may represent the overwhelming majority who're now leading lives to all intents as they were two years ago.

 

[e77]

North Stand concourse - not a mask in sight.
My trip to the supermarket in the last hour - I was the only mask-wearer, staff happily not bothering and in close proximity to each other.
A packed train journey back from London 6pm last Friday - not one mask-wearer.

I think [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] may represent the overwhelming majority who're now leading lives to all intents as they were two years ago.

I think you are correct. Which ironically makes mandatory wearing of face covering more of a possibility later on.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

North Stand concourse - not a mask in sight.
My trip to the supermarket in the last hour - I was the only mask-wearer, staff happily not bothering and in close proximity to each other.
A packed train journey back from London 6pm last Friday - not one mask-wearer.

I think [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] may represent the overwhelming majority who're now leading lives to all intents as they were two years ago.

And this is why I won't be going to the football, use public transport or go to the shops (apart from at 6am).

I still have to live, but will adjust my living accordingly.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

So what requirements need to be achieved before you are willing to live life normally again?

What requirements, how about personal choice?

You feel everything is hunky dory and we are in a wonderful place to fight off the virus, whereas I have 3 members of my household who are all vulnerable and I need to protect.

You do it your way and i'll do it mine... This is MY normal now and has been for 18 months.

 

[loz]

And this is why I won't be going to the football, use public transport or go to the shops (apart from at 6am).

I still have to live, but will adjust my living accordingly.

That’s not living it’s existing, I would ask yourself why are you doing that if you are double jabbed and if you are not vulnerable or living with someone who is.

Covid won’t go away it’s here forever.

*Just see your other post, fair enough and all the best.*