[Politics] Labour has suspended former leader Jeremy Corbyn

[Rdodge30]

I'd expect Labour to put NHS and the economy there but he needs a plan on how he intends to make Brexit work and I'm not hearing what that is.

We share similar concerns there, I’d like to see him acting like a Prime Minister in waiting and map out his plan for the country for all aspects of Government- there are many problems that needs solutions.

There are Labour supporters who think that because the current government is catastrophic there will be a Labour Government next May.

The only leader of the opposition to win a majority in a General Election in the last 44/45 years is Tony Blair in 97 and I think it’s significant that he produced his manifesto in July 96.

 

[Javeaseagull]

Just put the 'you lost, get over it' contingent on ignore. I know nobody in real life who would talk to me like that.

Brexit is gone now. An agenda to rejoin the EU has not even begun to manifest yet, anywhere outside of the irrelevant corridors of political navel gazing (for example I would imagine it is Liberal and Green policy, albeit I have no reason to bother checking).

Signing up to various trade arrangements may re-emerge as something potentially appealing, but presently it is hard to 'feel' a tangible negative impact of Brexit and be confident of cause and effect.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying there have been no adverse effects of Brexit. I'm saying that it is not obvious that the shit many of us are now in is directly attributable to Brexit. My estimation is that the shit some of us are in is due to the way the tories have run the country these last 13 years, which includes their Brexit fiasco, but I can't prove it, and it is debatable whether a majority of the electorate blames all the ills on Brexit either. My friendship group is mostly left of centre and I can't remember the last time anyone moaned about Brexit. The residents of Northern Ireland may of course disagree about the negative impact of Brexit, albeit they are a weird lot and probably blame 'betrayal' by the tories rather than Brexit itself.

So in reply to another post, it would be madness for labour to put a 'rejoin referendum' in their manifesto. For it to be a fair referendum, it would need to be what 'call me Dave' f***ed up over last time, 60:40 in favour of change for change to occur, not 50.1 versus 49.9. It would be madness to risk an embarrassing loss in such a referendum until the nation is clamouring to rejoin. We are far from that, and I'd venture to say that we will never ever be there.

So rather than 'I lost so I should shut up', my attitude now is that the horse has bolted and the barn doors cannot be repaired. Very sad (I was a firm remainer) but the court of public opinion is the bolted horse.

You are tight of course and I am just a lonely voice in the wilderness! I could easily say “up ladder Jack, I’m inboard” as I have residency here in Spain and access to excellent health facilities in my retirement. I just wish my children and others could have the same opportunity that I had.

Oddly enough I have met quite a few out here that wanted Brexit which I could never get my head around. My only explanation is that the Mail, Sun and Telegraph were very popular out here! Used to see them in all the bars but oddly don’t see them now. Lots of expats that I know went back after the vote so maybe people don’t read the papers so much. Saying that I can’t remember the last time I picked up a paper.

 

[nicko31]

Just put the 'you lost, get over it' contingent on ignore. I know nobody in real life who would talk to me like that.

Brexit is gone now. An agenda to rejoin the EU has not even begun to manifest yet, anywhere outside of the irrelevant corridors of political navel gazing (for example I would imagine it is Liberal and Green policy, albeit I have no reason to bother checking).

Signing up to various trade arrangements may re-emerge as something potentially appealing, but presently it is hard to 'feel' a tangible negative impact of Brexit and be confident of cause and effect.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying there have been no adverse effects of Brexit. I'm saying that it is not obvious that the shit many of us are now in is directly attributable to Brexit. My estimation is that the shit some of us are in is due to the way the tories have run the country these last 13 years, which includes their Brexit fiasco, but I can't prove it, and it is debatable whether a majority of the electorate blames all the ills on Brexit either. My friendship group is mostly left of centre and I can't remember the last time anyone moaned about Brexit. The residents of Northern Ireland may of course disagree about the negative impact of Brexit, albeit they are a weird lot and probably blame 'betrayal' by the tories rather than Brexit itself.

So in reply to another post, it would be madness for labour to put a 'rejoin referendum' in their manifesto. For it to be a fair referendum, it would need to be what 'call me Dave' f***ed up over last time, 60:40 in favour of change for change to occur, not 50.1 versus 49.9. It would be madness to risk an embarrassing loss in such a referendum until the nation is clamouring to rejoin. We are far from that, and I'd venture to say that we will never ever be there.

So rather than 'I lost so I should shut up', my attitude now is that the horse has bolted and the barn doors cannot be repaired. Very sad (I was a firm remainer) but the court of public opinion is the bolted horse.

I don't think the EU would even be interested in a re-join discussions until things were 60%+ infavour, both major parties were in favour or we have more representative proportionate voting system. As things stand we have none of these.

Best hope is to try and stop the rot, at the current rate Poland will over us on GDP per capita by 2030.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

We share similar concerns there, I’d like to see him acting like a Prime Minister in waiting and map out his plan for the country for all aspects of Government- there are many problems that needs solutions.

There are Labour supporters who think that because the current government is catastrophic there will be a Labour Government next May.

The only leader of the opposition to win a majority in a General Election in the last 44/45 years is Tony Blair in 97 and I think it’s significant that he produced his manifesto in July 96.

I never read his manifesto. I just wanted to see the back of Major and his hopeless gang of frauds.

Next year will be Déjà vu. All over again.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Signing up to various trade arrangements may re-emerge as something potentially appealing, but presently it is hard to 'feel' a tangible negative impact of Brexit and be confident of cause and effect.

If you accept - as many do - that the 'excess deaths' figure during Covid was an indication of the real effect of the pandemic then the stunted growth forecasts, labour shortages, excess inflation and empty supermarkets shelves - as compared with our G7 partners - represent the economic "excess deaths" due to Brexit.

Furthermore, if the things Remainers predicted before Brexit ARE now happening after Brexit then what more proof could you possibly get?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

If you accept - as many do - that the 'excess deaths' figure during Covid was an indication of the real effect of the pandemic then the stunted growth forecasts, labour shortages, excess inflation and empty supermarkets shelves - as compared with our G7 partners - represent the economic "excess deaths" due to Brexit.

Furthermore, if the things Remainers predicted before Brexit ARE now happening after Brexit then what more proof could you possibly get?

I am happy to accept all that. But I can't prove any of it. And people less hostile to the last 3 PMs than me, and less sad we left the EU than me, will be less persuaded. My only thought is that nothing will change until a majority see Brexit as an evil. I am sure you agree with me that they don't. Unfortunately.

 

[A1X]

If Corbyn stands as an independent in Islington he'll have no trouble retaining his seat.

Well if there's one thing Corbyn has proved himself very adept at, it's reducing the number of Labour MPs.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I am happy to accept all that. But I can't prove any of it. And people less hostile to the last 3 PMs than me, and less sad we left the EU than me, will be less persuaded. My only thought is that nothing will change until a majority see Brexit as an evil. I am sure you agree with me that they don't. Unfortunately.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

Currently 53% - 33%, about 62/38 of those showing a preference, so nowhere near 60/40

 

[Rdodge30]

View attachment 158969

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

Currently 53% - 33%, about 62/38 of those showing a preference, so nowhere near 60/40

Out of interest, is there a similar graph for : would like to return/ would not like to return

I wonder how many people that think it was a bad idea to leave would actually want to go through the whole ordeal again in reverse?

 

[WATFORD zero]

Out of interest, is there a similar graph for : would like to return/ would not like to return

I wonder how many people that think it was a bad idea to leave would actually want to go through the whole ordeal again in reverse?

I've no idea, I was just pointing out to HWT that there is a significant majority of the electorate that now think voting Brexit was wrong

If you have access to that there Internet thingy, you may find what you are looking for

 

[amexer]

We share similar concerns there, I’d like to see him acting like a Prime Minister in waiting and map out his plan for the country for all aspects of Government- there are many problems that needs solutions.

There are Labour supporters who think that because the current government is catastrophic there will be a Labour Government next May.

The only leader of the opposition to win a majority in a General Election in the last 44/45 years is Tony Blair in 97 and I think it’s significant that he produced his manifesto in July 96.

I voted for Blair because of his leadership qualities. Not shown by any politician since

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

View attachment 158969

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

Currently 53% - 33%, about 62/38 of those showing a preference, so nowhere near 60/40

Quite.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

View attachment 158969

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

Currently 53% - 33%, about 62/38 of those showing a preference, so nowhere near 60/40

Pretty meaningless as this wil be based upon a sample size (not mentioned in an obvious way as to what that sample size is from what i can see on their site, and the smaller the size, the more it can vary from the result if everyone was polled) also if they polled areas more in favour of staying, they will of course also get a result showing that as a majority outcome

 

[Guy Fawkes]

If you accept - as many do - that the 'excess deaths' figure during Covid was an indication of the real effect of the pandemic then the stunted growth forecasts, labour shortages, excess inflation and empty supermarkets shelves - as compared with our G7 partners - represent the economic "excess deaths" due to Brexit.

Furthermore, if the things Remainers predicted before Brexit ARE now happening after Brexit then what more proof could you possibly get?

It's easy to pick things and imply they are able to be used to support our view, and ignore other factors that may have played a part. if looking at, say, wage increases for lower paid employment, recent figures would show a far higher rate of growtht han pre-brexit, so by being selective, they could argue that was all down to Brexit, when the truth is there are so many things going on globally and locally, that the true outcome of brexit without these other factors can't be known.

For example, without the pandemic, would so many have changed jobs / careers. moved out of one sector and into another, retired early, etc..... adding to worker shortages, or should we claim that was all down to brexit too?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Pretty meaningless as this wil be based upon a sample size (not mentioned in an obvious way as to what that sample size is from what i can see on their site, and the smaller the size, the more it can vary from the result if everyone was polled) also if they polled areas more in favour of staying, they will of course also get a result showing that as a majority outcome

No, there are too many data points for the findings to be false. It would be foolish to repeatedly ask the same 50 people what they think and unless they did so the time trends would appear much more noisy if the samples were 'small'. Around 1,000 would be a sufficient sample size.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It's easy to pick things and imply they are able to be used to support our view, and ignore other factors that may have played a part. if looking at, say, wage increases for lower paid employment, recent figures would show a far higher rate of growtht han pre-brexit, so by being selective, they could argue that was all down to Brexit, when the truth is there are so many things going on globally and locally, that the true outcome of brexit without these other factors can't be known.

For example, without the pandemic, would so many have changed jobs / careers. moved out of one sector and into another, retired early, etc..... adding to worker shortages, or should we claim that was all down to brexit too?

I agree as I explained earlier today. There is a minority who are convinced all today's ills are due to Brexit and another minority who are convinced all today's plus points are due to Brexit.

Having typed that I just asked myself what todays plus points (things that are better since Brexit) might be. I'm struggling.... I appreciate that Brexit's loudest supporters claim that the benefits will appear in the longer term, and that for now the idea that we have left the EU is sufficient. A bit like a Christian's belief in the glory of an afterlife, perhaps, as a justification for believing in god. However....

Can anyone identify an actual tangible societal improvement that has taken place over the last couple of years that might plausibly be attributed to Brexit?

I may bounce this post from time to time if I get no answers.

 

[Rdodge30]

It's easy to pick things and imply they are able to be used to support our view, and ignore other factors that may have played a part. if looking at, say, wage increases for lower paid employment, recent figures would show a far higher rate of growtht han pre-brexit, so by being selective, they could argue that was all down to Brexit, when the truth is there are so many things going on globally and locally, that the true outcome of brexit without these other factors can't be known.

For example, without the pandemic, would so many have changed jobs / careers. moved out of one sector and into another, retired early, etc..... adding to worker shortages, or should we claim that was all down to brexit too?

I don’t know how other people were affected but the economic changes affecting my business after Brexit were negligible to none. The pandemic we were closed then the differences in trade and costs on reopening were negligible to none. When Russia invaded Ukraine the costs of all our ingredients increased repeatedly by amounts/percentages the like of which I have never ever seen before in 40 years.

 

[beorhthelm]

I agree as I explained earlier today. There is a minority who are convinced all today's ills are due to Brexit and another minority who are convinced all today's plus points are due to Brexit.

Having typed that I just asked myself what todays plus points (things that are better since Brexit) might be. I'm struggling.... I appreciate that Brexit's loudest supporters claim that the benefits will appear in the longer term, and that for now the idea that we have left the EU is sufficient. A bit like a Christian's belief in the glory of an afterlife, perhaps, as a justification for believing in god. However....

Can anyone identify an actual tangible societal improvement that has taken place over the last couple of years that might plausibly be attributed to Brexit?

I may bounce this post from time to time if I get no answers.

there are others already doing similar, it doesnt really need another. the architects of Brexit cant seem to deliver the benefits so we might assume there are maringal at best, move on for now. making the next election another re-run is not going to help Labour at all, it can only drive a small but significant minority of votes to Conservatives.

ill effects of Brexit are also so far minor for the average person (anyone who doesnt trade directly with Europe wont notice; travel seems more inconvincenced by covid tests). majority of issues are directly related to covid, supply shortages and energy. only yesturday reading on the German strikes they cited food inflation (21.8%), energy costs, worker shortages, housing problems as reason driving pay demands. we're not so disconnected from the economic progress of Europe regardless of membership.

 

[Hugo Rune]

We share similar concerns there, I’d like to see him acting like a Prime Minister in waiting and map out his plan for the country for all aspects of Government- there are many problems that needs solutions.

There are Labour supporters who think that because the current government is catastrophic there will be a Labour Government next May.

The only leader of the opposition to win a majority in a General Election in the last 44/45 years is Tony Blair in 97 and I think it’s significant that he produced his manifesto in July 96.

Once Starmer points out in detail his plan to absolutely decimate non-dom tax loopholes as well as potentially, a plan to reduce foreign ownership and influence of the UK press, the right wing press are going to launch the sort of catastrophic smear campaign that was thrown at Corbyn. I think the Mail had a 20 page anti-Corbyn special on day of the election last time.

You might want to see Starmer lay out his policies line by line but anyone inside the Labour Party with even the slightest grasp of election tactics will be urging Starmer to keep quiet as long as possible. The polls are fine for Labour, going after the 16% laggard vote at this point in time would be catastrophic in my opinion as anyone who has studied change management would tell you.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

there are others already doing similar, it doesnt really need another. the architects of Brexit cant seem to deliver the benefits so we might assume there are maringal at best, move on for now. making the next election another re-run is not going to help Labour at all, it can only drive a small but significant minority of votes to Conservatives.

ill effects of Brexit are also so far minor for the average person (anyone who doesnt trade directly with Europe wont notice; travel seems more inconvincenced by covid tests). majority of issues are directly related to covid, supply shortages and energy. only yesturday reading on the German strikes they cited food inflation (21.8%), energy costs, worker shortages, housing problems as reason driving pay demands. we're not so disconnected from the economic progress of Europe regardless of membership.

I agree. Which is why they won't. Which is why the dwindling number of wistful remainers are cross with labour.

Agree with the rest.