Johnson's Brexit - BRINO, or No deal

[WATFORD zero]

Ever since Johnson got elected as Conservative leader, I had thought he would go 'No Deal', and I taken the precautions I thought appropriate, and accepted and prepared for 'No Deal'. I also thought that the one advantage of all this was that at least the Brexit supporters would get to see the maximum possible benefits of Brexit

However, here we are again, 3 months away from 'No deal' with a strange feeling of déjà vu. For all the rhetoric, waffle and general Gammonism*, there still hasn't been a square foot of tarmac laid at any of the lorry parks, no staff recruited to deal with the new procedures, and the system that the distribution industry is expected to use is not going to be available until January. Even I am beginning to wonder if he's going to do a last minute U-turn and take BRINO, and the associated complete meltdown from the various factions within his own party.

Now, even by Johnson's standards, he has managed to manoeuvre himself into what could only be called an 'interesting' situation.

So which does he do

F*** the country over by going 'No deal' with no real preparations
F*** the Conservative party over by U-turning and going BRINO

and I suppose there is a third option

F*** everyone over and accept an extension to membership (probably least likely, but definitely funniest and least harm done )

So which do you think it will be ?

*as per Dickens definition of Mr. Gregsbury - Using Faux Patriotism to try to cover a complete lack of understanding of political situations.

 

[nicko31]

I'm gonna go with the 4th option, he will ultimately capitulate on the main things like State Aid as we are painted into a corner. A thin deal will be achieved and Johnson will claim victory, the reality will be significant economic harm and that will be buried under Covid second wave

Talks and negotiation with the EU will be never ending, just like Switzerland. Hopefully something to build on

Think full BRINO won't happen, though I think this isn't impossible as Johnson can U-turn on anything if he thinks it will save his skin

 

[WATFORD zero]

I'm gonna go with the 4th option, he will ultimately capitulate on the main things like State Aid as we are painted into a corner. A thin deal will be achieved and Johnson will claim victory, the reality will be significant economic harm and that will be buried under Covid second wave

Talks and negotiation with the EU will be never ending, just like Switzerland. Hopefully something to build on

Think full BRINO won't happen, though I think this isn't impossible as Johnson can U-turn on anything if he thinks it will save his skin

If he capitulates on the main points in the current situation then that is BRINO, still governed by EU regulations and the ECJ without any input to it

Of course, he'll claim a victory, like when he replaced 'the backstop' with 'the border in the Irish Sea' that May had previously turned down and claimed it was a victory (and that one still has to be resolved if he is going to get BRINO).

 

[A1X]

When it comes down to it, which does Johnson care about more, the people of the United Kingdom or the political career of Boris Johnson?

I know which answer I would bet on.

 

[nicko31]

If he capitulates on the main points in the current situation then that is BRINO, still governed by EU regulations and the ECJ without any input to it

Of course, he'll claim a victory, like when he replaced 'the backstop' with 'the border in the Irish Sea' that May had previously turned down and claimed it was a victory (and that one still has to be resolved if he is going to get BRINO).

OK, BRINO from me then

The Irish sea border is a big problem for Johnson that isn't going away. Scottish elections in May and Sturgeon has her gun fully loaded with the incompetence of Westminster and special CU favours dished to Northern Ireland that damage Scotland.

The Tories used EU membership to head off a UK split in 2014, it could ultimately be the glue that held the UK together

 

[beorhthelm]

very odd poll and view, that BRINO is the only alternative to no deal. this is the sort of thinking that blocks sensible debate and an agreement, triggering the leaver groups to reject an agreement.
from where we are, if as seems likely state aid is the only substantial item to backdown on, the deal is a long way from BRINO and further than many expected.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

pathetic poll for pathetic people, you couldn't make it up ,
regards
DF

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xln3D0HFQPo
regards
DF

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Johnson will go *No deals* ( in the plural because a *no deal* which breaks the GFA also means no deal with the US ).

After 2-6 months he'll then announce the *sovereign decision* to re-join the European Free Trade Association... and eventually agree a Norway type deal with the EU ( which will be re-branded as a UK deal for spin ).

 

[WATFORD zero]

very odd poll and view, that BRINO is the only alternative to no deal. this is the sort of thinking that blocks sensible debate and an agreement, triggering the leaver groups to reject an agreement.
from where we are, if as seems likely state aid is the only substantial item to backdown on, the deal is a long way from BRINO and further than many expected.

What about fishing rights, what about the pirmacy of the ECJ, what about the border in the Irish sea ? There's a hell of a lot more than State Aid to agree on. Added into which plenty of 'leaver groups' didn't want to leave the single market, whilst others wanted to stay in a customs union, other 'leaver groups' wanted to join the EEA and others, led by Johnson wanted 'no deal', so I suggest there maybe a large number of 'triggers' that would set off 'leaver groups', many of those 'triggers' being diametrically opposed.

I personally think that may be where the main issue lies, and what is blocking an agreement, rather than State Aid

 

[beorhthelm]

...Added into which plenty of 'leaver groups' didn't want to leave the single market, whilst others wanted to stay in a customs union, other 'leaver groups' wanted to join the EEA and others, led by Johnson wanted 'no deal', so I suggest there maybe a large number of 'triggers' that would set off 'leaver groups', many of those 'triggers' being diametrically opposed.

thats my point. all those different views, one thing can galvanise them to a common cause is "BRINO", implying none of them got what they wanted (except the BRINO fans). its all about the spin and how you sell it of course, even if it is BRINO, you dont call it that.
it looks like a deal with out ECJ, competition regulation with arbitration is where they are, something near Swiss model?

 

[WATFORD zero]

thats my point. all those different views, one thing can galvanise them to a common cause is "BRINO", implying none of them got what they wanted (except the BRINO fans). its all about the spin and how you sell it of course, even if it is BRINO, you dont call it that.

Well obviously they can't all get what they want, as they wanted completely different things. (Hence they still haven't found out what they've got 4.5 years after they voted for 'it' and, apparently, 12 months after they 'got' it ).

And no, when and if Johnson goes BRINO, he won't call it that. But we'll both know, won't we

it looks like a deal with out ECJ, competition regulation with arbitration is where they are, something near Swiss model?

Can you link to any sources of information that makes you think that's where the negotiations are, despite all reports from both sides to the contrary ?

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I think he'll achieve a red, white and blue Brexit. As no-one knew what this meant, it can be legitimately claimed for any outcome. And T May will be proved to have been right all along.

 

[A1X]

Johnson will go *No deals* ( in the plural because a *no deal* which breaks the GFA also means no deal with the US ).

After 2-6 months he'll then announce the *sovereign decision* to re-join the European Free Trade Association... and eventually agree a Norway type deal with the EU ( which will be re-branded as a UK deal for spin ).

This. The vulture capitalists hoping to make a quick buck at the expense of everyone else make their quick buck and sod off back to the shadows, whereupon someone who actually cares about more than their own ego / bank balance is left to clear up the mess.

 

[Grombleton]

pathetic poll for pathetic people, you couldn't make it up ,
regards
DF

You regularly manage it.

 

[pastafarian]

Cant see BRINO as an option at all.
BRINO is non membership of the EU but continued membership of the Single Market and members of THE EU Customs Union.
Dont know why some people still consider this an option.........desperate wishful thinking i guess.

Silly poll

 

[The Clamp]

It'll be an extension followed by looking like a No Deal right up the wire, then BRINO, then re-joining single market in about three years, then full membership again with no deciding referendum, within ten years. In other words; a hugely self destructive, divisional, economically disastrous, waste of time.

 

[nicko31]

It'll be an extension followed by looking like a No Deal right up the wire, then BRINO, then re-joining single market in about three years, then full membership again with no deciding referendum, within ten years. In other words; a hugely self destructive, divisional, economically disastrous, waste of time.

Pretty much 5 years now of a self indulgent tantrum, a lot of structural damage and no advantages to report as yet.

Bizarrely, I do see some advantages of Brexit, but I'm not going to air them on here that's the leavers job. But still nothing from them, seems they are despairing with their failed experiment. Chin up...

 

[WATFORD zero]

Cant see BRINO as an option at all.
BRINO is non membership of the EU but continued membership of the Single Market and members of THE EU Customs Union.
Dont know why some people still consider this an option.........desperate wishful thinking i guess.

Silly poll

So you obviously think he is going to U-turn as well

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

So you obviously think he is going to U-turn as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHiW5ndFNQQ:bigwave:
regards
DF