[Football] It's Our Defending Isn't It?

[Stato]

https://experimental361.com/2020/11/02/scatter-graphics-premier-league-2-nov-2020/

Scatter Graphics out from Experimental 3-6-1 seem to show that, despite all the received wisdom going around that 'Brighton don't have a cutting edge', it is the small number of chances opponents need to score against us and not our attacking effectiveness that is preventing us from getting points.

Now I'm not moaning. I accept that nearly half of our games have been against teams in the top 5% for attacking effectiveness and that 9 of the 14 goals we have conceded came in those three games. I also accept that we have a young defensive unit adapting to playing in a new formation. With work, particularly on set pieces, and better concentration levels, the defending should improve.

What I'm wondering is why all the pundits who watch us, Barry Glendenning on this week's football weekly podcast being the latest, trot out the same comments that we play pretty football, but have no cutting edge? We are one of only five teams in the league to have scored in every game we've played this season. We are averaging considerably more goals per game than we have in previous seasons. Our top scorer is in the top ten goalscorers in the division and, in seven matches, we have seven players who have already scored league goals this season.

On the other hand, our goals against record is in the bottom four in the division, we are statistically the worst at letting in set piece goals (penalties included) and, although we allow the fewest shots per game of any team, we seem to be conceding more goals per shot than anybody else. Away to Everton, in our worst performance of the season (until the second half last Monday), we scored two goals, despite having some weird fetish for playing all set pieces backwards. We also gave them the ball in dangerous areas and didn't track dangerous attacking players in our final third, allowing them to score far too easily. Yesterday we managed to score without even playing a striker, but then left a £90 million sub unmarked for a free header to chuck the point away.

So, help me out. Do I have it wrong? Or is it our defending that needs the improvement? If so, why is everybody talking about us 'struggling for goals' and not 'struggling to keep them out'?

 

[Easy 10]

Its a decent analysis you make, but IMO the primary factor IS we are simply not clinical enough. We hit the woodwork 5 times against Man Utd. You could say thats bad luck, but when you keep coming that close, an element of it has to come down to piss poor finishing. Look at the multitude of chances spurned against Palace, because we dithered, or chose the wrong option. West Brom should have been buried by half time, but again, we've let them off the hook. Even at Spurs, where I expected us to get humped, we had long spells of possession but no end product.

We're a nice team to watch. We have some issues defending set pieces. But the biggest problem is a catastrophic lack of nouse and cutting edge in the box. And any team with that issue is going to struggle.

 

[Pevenseagull]

after 10 games, when we have the 5th worst goal difference that will be an accurate reflection of where we are. 5th worst.

where are we now? 5th worst

where will we finish? 16th

something like that

 

[vagabond]

On the other hand, our goals against record is in the bottom four in the division, we are statistically the worst at letting in set piece goals (penalties included) and, although we allow the fewest shots per game of any team, we seem to be conceding more goals per shot than anybody else.

Has the penny dropped why?

Why do you think Potter dropped Matty for Sanchez?

This has been an ongoing problem going back 12 months. Opposition have a decent effort on target = nearly always a goal.

I suspect this stat may change now Potter has had the balls to drop Matty. Let’s see.

 

[Dolph Ins]

It would appear so. We have scored more goals than 10 (ten) other teams so far but only 2 teams have let in more (inc Liverpool!).

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

I make you spot on. The inability to grind any period of a game out (let alone 90 minutes) is costing us.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

Our xG of 1.3 per game would yield 9.1 goals from the 7 games and we have scored 11. This suggests that the strike force are doing their job. We either need to tighten up at the back or provide more opportunities for our strikers to convert, or both

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Burnley game will be hugely instructive. Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes are more than capable of punishing any slack Albion defending

 

[Worried Man Blues]

Those graphs make us look better than where we are in the league, is that just bad luck or will Welbeck be the answer when he's up to speed.

 

[dazzer6666]

Has the penny dropped why?

Why do you think Potter dropped Matty for Sanchez?

This has been an ongoing problem going back 12 months. Opposition have a decent effort on target = nearly always a goal.

I suspect this stat may change now Potter has had the balls to drop Matty. Let’s see.

 

[southstandandy]

Bottom line is we can't keep conceeding an average of 2 goals per game (as we have after the first 7 matches) and expect to win many of them. Big goal scorers we are not.

 

[CaptainDaveUK]

Maybe that’s why Matty Ryan has been dropped. Clean sheet against Burnley would be nice.

 

[blue-shifted]

The obvious point is that it's a bit of both.

The other obvious point is that teams aren't playing through out midfield and our three man defence, however they are getting wide, getting the ball in early an and attacking exploiting confusion about who is picking up who. All the open play goals we've conceded I can remember this season have come from crosses. I believe that this is because we're not playing conventional full backs. It's making us too easy to get in behind. Now Sean Dyche will be working on this all week. Getting it to McNeil early and getting it over the centre backs for Wood to compete with Lamptey or March in the air.

I 'd like to see us return to a back 4, with Lamptey featuring as a conventional winger

 

[Simster]

I have long since concluded that our defending is the real problem, and even that problem can be drilled into even more specifically. I can accept we are going to miss chances because of a lack of expensive strikers, but our defending has been poor - and that includes the goalkeeper.

We are averaging 54% possession in the Premier league, which means our defence ought to be under less strain than most, yet not only do we concede too many, but a lot of the goals have been quite preventable. Our set piece defending is Sunday league and Sunday's winner saw Bale totally unmarked.

I am happy to wait though - plenty of time to sort it out, and that's assuming 7 games is really enough to form any firm opinion, especially given we've had enough shit luck already to last a whole season. Even our goal that shouldn't have been on Sunday was merely evening up an absurd penalty decision for them.

 

[Napper]

Wood and Barnes on friday could tear us a new one.

Thats the issue with our paper defence

I think we'll need to score 3