[Albion] Is the top 4 really out of reach?

[tigertim68]

I think Top 4 may be out of reach simply because mental and physical tiredness could affect us in those last 4 or 5 games. Moder's form and fitness could be key.

If you are relying on Moder no chance

 

[Stat Brother]

Don't get me wrong, I know we have a very good young hungry squad, but the pessimist in me suggests we will struggle to maintain this standard for the rest of the season consistently, especially playing 2 games a week for two months.

And don't forget we are heading into the period of the season where we are traditionally pants. In 2022 we won our first PL game in February, then waited until April to win our next one. The year before we had one win at the start of Feb, then waited until 14th March to win the next one. In 2020 the first win of the calendar year was 20th June, having failed to win 4 games in Feb and one in March.

In the other hand, the dreamer in me is looking forward to beating Villa at the end of May to secure European football for the first time.

I can't quite put my finger on the reason why, but I feel like now there's a different mentality within the club.

 

[trueblue]

Can’t see why anyone would write off our top 4 chances. We’re an outside shot of course but Newcastle draw too many and Spurs are inconsistent. I think Tottenham will do it but we have the ability to beat anyone and are continually improving. Just need to believe and see where it takes us.

 

[Stat Brother]

Tottingham have City, Leicester, Milan & West Ham.
As you all know we have palace & Fulham.

Deffo have to win 2 trap games on the bounce - but still might be 6th.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Clearly not out of reach - Not hugely likely either, but I don't think RDZ sees it that way.

His perception of the club isn't hindered by the history and Big 6 bias of us mere mortals.
He just sees a squad of excellent players, in form and in a good position.

I assumed when he said something about, if the club want Europe we have to buy, I assumed he was talking about scrabbling for 7th.
I'm now convinced he was talking about Champions League.

 

[BRIGHT ON Q]

We have some massive games coming up, especially Fulham and Brentford because they don't seem to be going away.

 

[Justice]

Just think Newcastle too strong. Yes spent silly money but not silly, silly money. Not too fussed, just want us to finish as high as possible. Even if that’s 10th or so I’ll still be delighted - the season has been great so far.

We have won the same amount of games as Newcastle with a game in hand.

 

[rogersix]

RDZ is a champions league manager, he will want that again, and bloomy has employed, specifically him, for a reason

dare to dream!

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Don't really 'fear' anybody this season, other than Man City. Arsenal's falling off the pace is just taking a little longer than usual this time around. Liverpool look a busted flush, and Potter's will now be into his endless-tinkering-until-he-accidentally-stumbles-upon-a-decent-formation phase at Chelsea. As for Tottenham and Newcastle, April could be decisive. Tottenham play us on the 8th. Then they've got a softish one v (resurgent?) Bournemouth then they play Newcastle and ManU in quick succession. Loads of potential for dropped points all round. And loads of points still to play for. It really is there for the taking if the Albion just keep their heads down and take it one game at a time

 

[warmleyseagull]

We have won the same amount of games as Newcastle with a game in hand.

but lost 5 more.

 

[Stat Brother]

but lost 5 more.

As we were told would be the case when RDZ signed.

 

[warmleyseagull]

No harm in dreaming but it is a push.

In the last 5 seasons, 4th team has averaged exactly 70 points; in 4 of the seasons 72 would be enough (or 71 with superior GD). Given the dominance of Manchesters and Arsenal it is possible that 4th place might be grabbed for high 60s, i.e. double what Brighton have. 10 wins would put us in a good place, coupled with 4+draws.

Albion have done well against bottom half teams (so far have W7 D2 L1 against current bottom half), repeat that and then need around 10 points from the 5 teams above us, Brentford, Chelsea, and Fulham. That looks doable but does, I think, require our best players to continue form and avoid injury. Games against Fulham and Brentford feel like 6 pointers, more likely to cement a top 7 place than top 4, but you never know.

FWW, average points for 6th place is 62.2 over last 5 seasons (range 59-65) and 57.6 for 7th (54-62). That looks achievable but beware Fulham and Brentford ( and outside possibility of below 7th place winner of FA Cup).

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Guimaraes is suspended for another 2 games for Newcastle, Bournemouth away and Liverpool at home. Both winnable, however they've not won all season in the 4 matches he's previously missed.

Plus they've only scored 2 goals in their last 5 games. 4 draws and a tight 1-0 win. #flatteringtodeceive

 

[Mr deez]

A deserved European ban for City would free up a slot nicely.

 

[kevo]

I think the fixture congestion we will have from multiple postponements will have an impact on our chances of qualifying for Europe. It's madness the Bournemouth and Palace games haven't been rescheduled - there have been lots of opportunities to play those games by now.

 

[Davey Boy Smith]

I think the fixture congestion we will have from multiple postponements will have an impact on our chances of qualifying for Europe. It's madness the Bournemouth and Palace games haven't been rescheduled - there have been lots of opportunities to play those games by now.

I agree with the craziness of these 2 games not yet being rearranged. Not sure why we couldn’t have played one of these this week the same way the Man Utd Leeds fixture was? We want to get these out the way as should we progress further in the Cup it’s just going to exacerbate the problem.

 

[Silverhatch]

I’m a 40+ year Brightonian watching this club thru the most visceral ups and downs. There are ABSOLUTELY not 4 better sides in this country right now. Whether that means we make top 4 or not is up to the footballing gods and RDZ.

 

[HastingsSeagull]

5th was possible so why not 4th if citeh get fined. Sadly it won’t happen in time and we might deserve but never get to play C.L.

 

[Perkino]

For a top 4 finish we are likely to need 22 wins. We have 10 from 20 games but will need another 12 from 18 during a cramped schedule. It is unlikely and doesn't allow us for any loss of form over a sustained period. We will need to beat the majority of the top 10 sides we play

 

[Crawley Dingo]

With games in hand, we have to play them and they have to play each other so its in our hands.