Is 86 points enough for automatic promotion?

[Mo Gosfield]

Hull, Burnley and Sheff Wed have not had a real dip yet. They may not, now it is already mid Feb and they have been pretty lucky with injuries and suspensions. We seem to have had ours. Boro and Derby are currently in theirs. I would be surprised if at least one of the first three mentioned doesn't have a mini blip over 3-4 games.
With our injured players coming back, our run-in will be strong and I'm projecting 84-88 points. I'm pretty sure we are going to be top four but whether we will have enough for top two, I just don't know.

 

[Machiavelli]

In last 10 seasons, points won by 2nd team ranged from 79 to 93. On 5 occasions, 2nd team has earned 86 or less, 5 times more.

So 86 is right on cusp historically as to whether it is enough. My instinct is that the top 5 are so competitive this season that 86 probably will be enough, but who knows.

The second-placed team has very little bearing on how many points are enough for automatic promotion. The third-placed team, however, is a different matter: get one more point than them, or a better goal difference, and you're in the top two.

 

[DJ NOBO]

I dont understand why people get hung up on predicting how many points at the end of the season - what matters is how we do compared to other teams.

With knockaert coming in, and players coming back, top two is possible although third or fourth is much more likely

 

[warmleyseagull]

The second-placed team has very little bearing on how many points are enough for automatic promotion. The third-placed team, however, is a different matter: get one more point than them, or a better goal difference, and you're in the top two.

Had this discussion on a previous thread when I said same as you, and one poster reasonably pointed out that achieving one more point than third placed team still leaves you third (unless second placed team is there only by GD).

For the record, two third placed teams have achieved 86 points in last 10 years and on 5 occasions 80 or less. Applying the logic of beat third place 81 would be enough in as many seasons as not, and that just doesn't seem quite right

The idea of setting out what 2nd place achieved is not to predict or be definitive, just to put in perspective as another poster said. It is a guide, no more, and to be read as such. It may well have no relevance to this season.

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

My take for what it's worth: 86 points won't be enough.
I've got us down for 10 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats = 90 pts.
Which will be enough.
Can we do it? Yes.
Will we do it? No idea - hold on, it's going to be quite a ride

 

[Machiavelli]

Had this discussion on a previous thread when I said same as you, and one poster reasonably pointed out that achieving one more point than third placed team still leaves you third (unless second placed team is there only by GD).

For the record, two third placed teams have achieved 86 points in last 10 years and on 5 occasions 80 or less. Applying the logic of beat third place 81 would be enough in as many seasons as not, and that just doesn't seem quite right

The idea of setting out what 2nd place achieved is not to predict or be definitive, just to put in perspective as another poster said. It is a guide, no more, and to be read as such. It may well have no relevance to this season.

Me no understand. You (informed by others) say that having one more point than the third-placed team leaves you third, whereas I (and the table would) say that it leaves you in second place.

 

[darkwolf666]

I dont understand why people get hung up on predicting how many points at the end of the season - what matters is how we do compared to other teams.

With knockaert coming in, and players coming back, top two is possible although third or fourth is much more likely

Why much more likely - two positive results from next two games and we could be top by Saturday 3pm.

 

[halbpro]

Me no understand. You (informed by others) say that having one more point than the third-placed team leaves you third, whereas I (and the table would) say that it leaves you in second place.

Take the current situation. If we have 1 more point than Burnley we move up to third, not second.

 

[darkwolf666]

Take the current situation. If we have 1 more point than Burnley we move up to third, not second.

But you wouldn't have one more point than the third place team, you would have one more point than the fourth place team!

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

There's also the chance of "it's a funny old game" and Boro' or Hull might not be in the automatic run in, highly unlikely but very possible. I believe, based on nothing but old age, that the points are going top be spread around and 86 will easily be enough, unfortunately I have us at 83.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

I've had a quick look at the final table for the past twenty seasons. Working on the premise that you need to better the team that finishes in third rather than second(as you're looking to take the place of the second placed team), in 13 of those 20 seasons the third placed team has got less than 86 points. In four of the seasons they got 86 points. In three of the seasons they bettered 86 points. So you're unlucky if you get 86 points and don't get promoted. This season with five teams looking very strong and a sixth looking like they could be a real threat I think this will be one of those years where 86 won't get you promoted(particularly if you take in to account our poor goal difference). I think we'll need 88-90 points to secure second place. Tuesday's game is massive.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

Had this discussion on a previous thread when I said same as you, and one poster reasonably pointed out that achieving one more point than third placed team still leaves you third (unless second placed team is there only by GD).

But that would be a table with 25 teams in. You need to look at how many points the second placed team in the league actually needed to finish second rather than how many they actually got.

 

[Biscuit]

86 points and THIRD for me.

 

[Triggaaar]

Had this discussion on a previous thread when I said same as you, and one poster reasonably pointed out that achieving one more point than third placed team still leaves you third (unless second placed team is there only by GD).

Me no understand. You (informed by others) say that having one more point than the third-placed team leaves you third, whereas I (and the table would) say that it leaves you in second place.

He means if you look at a past table, say 2014-2015, where the 3rd place team were Norwich on 86 points, if you had one more point than them you'd be on 87 points, still in 3rd place behind Watford on 89.

The problem is trying to add yourself into a league that's already got 24 teams - if you add yourself on 87 points, which team do you take out? For Watford to finish 2nd, they only needed 1 more point that 3rd place. For Middlesbrough to have finished 2nd, 1 point ahead of 3rd wouldn't have been enough.

When trying to work out how many you need in general, a decent estimation would be as follows:
Take a decent sample of previous seasons, take the average number of points scored by the 2nd placed team, the average points tally of the 3rd place team, and average those (so you have a points total between 2nd and 3rd).

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

Depends who we got those points from.. If we manage to get wins against Hull, Burnley, Boro and Wednesday then 86 points could be..

 

[SeeGoals]

Looking back at the previous tables on average the top 2 teams have ended the season winning between 24 and 27 games, with the top 2 usually separated by 1 win. So we need to keep pace with the team with the highest number of wins, which at the moment is Hull with 18 followed by Boro on 17. We currently have 15 so we are behind by 3 wins and makes tomorrow's game even more important that we don't lose (a draw would not be a bad result).

I would guess we need to win at least 10 of our remaining 16 games and scrape a few draws to make it into the top 2, but with only 7 home games and 9 away games that could be a BIG ask!

 

[Triggaaar]

Looking back at the previous tables on average the top 2 teams have ended the season winning between 24 and 27 games, with the top 2 usually separated by 1 win. So we need to keep pace with the team with the highest number of wins, which at the moment is Hull with 18 followed by Boro on 17. We currently have 15 so we are behind by 3 wins

That's a pretty silly way of looking at it (no offence meant, but seriously). We've had more draws and less losses so of course we don't need as many wins. We're 3 points behind Hull, we don't need to win 3 more than them.

I would guess we need to win at least 10 of our remaining 16 games and scrape a few draws to make it into the top 2

At least? That would put us on 89 points. That's not the least we need.

 

[SeeGoals]

That's a pretty silly way of looking at it (no offence meant, but seriously). We've had more draws and less losses so of course we don't need as many wins. We're 3 points behind Hull, we don't need to win 3 more than them.

At least? That would put us on 89 points. That's not the least we need.

My reason for highlighting the wins is based on the final table! When we get to the end of the season we'll see if indeed it did come down to wins.

If you take the 2012/13 season as an example Hull went up in 2nd place with 24 wins, 7 draws and 15 loses. In THAT season we only lost 9 but the number of games won was only 19 with 18 draws. So the importance of winning is crucial and staying a pace with the team with the highest number of wins IMHO is vital!

 

[Triggaaar]

My reason for highlighting the wins is based on the final table! When we get to the end of the season we'll see if indeed it did come down to wins.

If you take the 2012/13 season as an example Hull went up in 2nd place with 24 wins, 7 draws and 15 loses. In THAT season we only lost 9 but the number of games won was only 19 with 18 draws. So the importance of winning is crucial and staying a pace with the team with the highest number of wins IMHO is vital!

Winning gets you 3 points, so of course they're the most important thing. But we're 16 games from the end of the season now and it's silly to ignore the points already gained from draws. If you offer me now finishing the season with 1 less win than Hull, I'd take it, and we'd probably finish above them and go up automatically.

 

[bhafc62]

The biggest issue may well be goal difference. We have the lowest (10) until Birmingham in 7th. With Boro losing/drawing their game in hand tonight and with us having a game in hand then beating Hull is absolute priority and gets us into 2nd by late tomorrow night. The question is about how many slip ups Boro and Hull can produce verses how many wins we must produce. Draws now are not needed.. it has to be about all or nothing with the run in based on our poor GD.