[Politics] If you are 90% sure, are you sure or not sure

[Hamilton]

An MP quoted in the Boris Johnson partygate evidence has said was "90% sure" the senior civil servant Simon Case agreed with Johnson during a meeting that all Covid rules had been obeyed.

Is 90% sure a case of being sure, or does that 10% mean she is not sure?

 

[pb21]

I'm 90% sure that 90% sure means NOT SURE.

 

[MJsGhost]

 

[beorhthelm]

the logic is 90% sure is near completely sure. otoh the language means you're not sure, you have some doubt. so depends on the person. eitherway they dont know or dont want to commit.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

If you were asked what you were doing at exactly 2:30 last Tuesday, most could give a very good guess as to what they were doing, but there would be a small chance that their guess is inaccurate (not intentionally) but it was extremely likely that the answer you'd given was factually correct
hence why someone may answer i'm 90% certain is was doing this at that time
Factor in a greater amount of time passing and the likelyhood of being able to be 100% sure what you were doing at that precise time would lessen, but it's likely your guess would remain the same.

Does that mean you are either sure or lying about what you were doing at that time? Surely it simply means you are pretty confident about your answer being accurate, but can't be 100% guaranteed it.

This will apply to most things in life for everyone (espeically conversations and alike) so unless the conversation was recorded or minuted, there could always be an element of doubt about the accuracy of recall of what exactly was said and how it was said and different parties in that conversation can have differing recollections of that conversation (but they tend to be very similar)

 

[WATFORD zero]

An MP quoted in the Boris Johnson partygate evidence has said was "90% sure" the senior civil servant Simon Case agreed with Johnson during a meeting that all Covid rules had been obeyed.

Is 90% sure a case of being sure, or does that 10% mean she is not sure?

It means that she believes her career would progress more by backing Johnson at this moment in time (or he has dirt on her)

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think it means they're lying.

 

[Bodian]

I think it means they're lying.

And that they are hedging their bets - so when caught out, they can say 'but I never said I was sure'.

 

[Normal Rob]

you don't know (10%) - therefore you are not sure.

 

[KZNSeagull]

I'm 90% sure that the rope Harriet Harman has around her neck is meant for Boris.

 

[jakarta]

Schrödinger's cat - it is alive or dead...

To get back to the subject of the oaf, clearly either a liar/totally incompetent /both...

 

[Swansman]

Nothing wrong with saying 90% sure.

No need to turn common, reasonable things Boris said into something else... plenty of unreasonable things to pick from.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

Because they play in blue, I'm 90% sure I'll still vote conservative

 

[Machiavelli]

Schrödinger's cat - it is alive or dead...

To get back to the subject of the oaf, clearly either a liar/totally incompetent /both...

I'm 90% sure that it's the first of these three

 

[rool]

If you were asked what you were doing at exactly 2:30 last Tuesday, most could give a very good guess as to what they were doing, but there would be a small chance that their guess is inaccurate (not intentionally) but it was extremely likely that the answer you'd given was factually correct
hence why someone may answer i'm 90% certain is was doing this at that time
Factor in a greater amount of time passing and the likelyhood of being able to be 100% sure what you were doing at that precise time would lessen, but it's likely your guess would remain the same.

Does that mean you are either sure or lying about what you were doing at that time? Surely it simply means you are pretty confident about your answer being accurate, but can't be 100% guaranteed it.

This will apply to most things in life for everyone (espeically conversations and alike) so unless the conversation was recorded or minuted, there could always be an element of doubt about the accuracy of recall of what exactly was said and how it was said and different parties in that conversation can have differing recollections of that conversation (but they tend to be very similar)

I always think I'd be stuffed if the police asked me where I was on Wednesday 15th of last month, for example, like on the films.
It's not like I keep a diary and unless there's a football match on or something I have no chance of remembering what I was up to unless I had murdered someone of course.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

I always think I'd be stuffed if the police asked me where I was on Wednesday 15th of last month, for example, like on the films.
It's not like I keep a diary and unless there's a football match on or something I have no chance of remembering what I was up to unless I had murdered someone of course.

Being married for 40 years, my wife can recall EVERY little thing from that 40 years.....to the second!

 

[Gabbiano]

If you replace the word “sure” for the word “certain” it’s clearer.

Certain is an absolute but things can have degrees of certainty.

Similarly 90% sure is not “sure” but is 90% of the way there.

Either way Boris is lying out his arse

 

[sparkie]

I'm not totally sure.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

I'm certain that I'm 90% sure....

 

[Hamilton]

I’m now 90% sure Johnson is toast.