kemptown kid
Well-known member
- Apr 17, 2011
- 362
Er, did you watch these games?
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[Albion] How good are we really ?
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Er, did you watch these games?
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
There is no for sure way of answering this question. Doubt there are many who don't believe Albion should be higher in table, and I am not just talking NSC. Many pundits and columnists have too.
My instinct with several other posters is that we should be on around 40-42 points. You can amass evidence for many of the defeats and draws to say that this or the other game should have been drawn or won but that inevitably is rose tinted and by nature is selective. There are counters too, such as that arguably 5 of the 7 wins (all bar Villa and Newcastle away) have been fortunately timed when oppo has been on poor form. But on balance, I reckon we should be around 8-10 points better off.
To get some more objectivity into this, can look at cumulative match stats, as follows (Xg table position has already been pointed out);
goals scored:13th in table;
goals conceded: 10th;
clean sheets: 8th;
shots: 7th
shots on target: 12th
fewest saves: 18th (can see this as a good place to be as Chelsea 19th and Man City 20th, WBA 1st, i.e. measure of how well keeper protected).
These metrics support the finger in the air thought.
What is encouraging since the 3 defeat debacle is that last two games have not just been won but both exceeded net Xg: Soton match was nearly dead even for net Xg (i.e. draw would be expected) and Newcastle Xg suggested win 1-0. We remain by far the team farthest from Xg position but that has at least stalled in last two weeks.
Point made in Times today by Henry Winter: " 'Potterball' has many admirers among footballing purists but he's tweaked it, given it more energy, and it's now possession with a purpose, more of a willingness to shoot rather then walk the ball in". Amen to that and if it continues we may be looking at one another and wondering "WTF" in a completely reverse way to post Leicester. These next games are sure going to be interesting....
My instinct with several other posters is that we should be on around 40-42 points. You can amass evidence for many of the defeats and draws to say that this or the other game should have been drawn or won but that inevitably is rose tinted and by nature is selective. There are counters too, such as that arguably 5 of the 7 wins (all bar Villa and Newcastle away) have been fortunately timed when oppo has been on poor form. But on balance, I reckon we should be around 8-10 points better off.
To get some more objectivity into this, can look at cumulative match stats, as follows (Xg table position has already been pointed out);
goals scored:13th in table;
goals conceded: 10th;
clean sheets: 8th;
shots: 7th
shots on target: 12th
fewest saves: 18th (can see this as a good place to be as Chelsea 19th and Man City 20th, WBA 1st, i.e. measure of how well keeper protected).
These metrics support the finger in the air thought.
What is encouraging since the 3 defeat debacle is that last two games have not just been won but both exceeded net Xg: Soton match was nearly dead even for net Xg (i.e. draw would be expected) and Newcastle Xg suggested win 1-0. We remain by far the team farthest from Xg position but that has at least stalled in last two weeks.
Point made in Times today by Henry Winter: " 'Potterball' has many admirers among footballing purists but he's tweaked it, given it more energy, and it's now possession with a purpose, more of a willingness to shoot rather then walk the ball in". Amen to that and if it continues we may be looking at one another and wondering "WTF" in a completely reverse way to post Leicester. These next games are sure going to be interesting....
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,262
1. The table doesn't lie.
2. If you want to progress up the table it is wins - not draws - you need.
3. Most importantly, to get wins you need clinical finishers who will score that one chance that comes their way.
Do we play more attractive football than Palace? Yes.
Does that make us better than Palace? No.
We have scored more goals than them, we have conceded less goals than them, we have lost fewer games than them BUT - crucially - they have 3 more wins than we do. How can this be? In a nutshell, we've scored 32, missed 35 big chances. Palace have scored 31, missed only 19 big chances.
There is other stuff that we need to improve on, i.e. we concede too many from set pieces, we let too many points slip from winning positions.
However, we are on course to increase our goal tally for the 4th successive season AND decrease goals conceded for the 2nd successive season.
So, in summary, we are a club that is improving, and is getting more things right than we are getting wrong. It would be nice to reach 42 points / 14th or higher and have something tangible to show for our work.
2. If you want to progress up the table it is wins - not draws - you need.
3. Most importantly, to get wins you need clinical finishers who will score that one chance that comes their way.
Do we play more attractive football than Palace? Yes.
Does that make us better than Palace? No.
We have scored more goals than them, we have conceded less goals than them, we have lost fewer games than them BUT - crucially - they have 3 more wins than we do. How can this be? In a nutshell, we've scored 32, missed 35 big chances. Palace have scored 31, missed only 19 big chances.
There is other stuff that we need to improve on, i.e. we concede too many from set pieces, we let too many points slip from winning positions.
However, we are on course to increase our goal tally for the 4th successive season AND decrease goals conceded for the 2nd successive season.
So, in summary, we are a club that is improving, and is getting more things right than we are getting wrong. It would be nice to reach 42 points / 14th or higher and have something tangible to show for our work.
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
My incredibly insightful mind has come up with the conclusion we would be bloody brilliant if we had a 20 goal a season striker , i`m surprised no one else thought of that .
Swansman made very good point on another thread that the issue is not just (or perhaps even) absence of 20 goal man (and there are significantly less than one per PL team) but the lack of goals from midfield. Saturday was first occasion this season for 3 different scorers, and probably (tho cant be arsed to go back into history) for a very long time. NSC tends to get obsessed with this striker thing but it aint that simple.
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,262
It would be a bigger help if the forwards converted more of the chances the midfielders are making for them.
I am not inclined to lay any blame at the feet of Gross or Bissouma whilst the xG from our forwards has been this mediocre.
BrickTamland
Well-known member
We’re as good as where we are. Suggesting anything else is contrary to fact
All good.. you’re entitled to vote out of course. Just seemed at odds with your positive thoughts here.
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?386742-Potter-in-or-out
Skaville
Well-known member
I don’t believe it’s being unkind to say Palace are ****ing atrocious. Should be bottom four
jessiejames
Never late in a V8
There was an article out regarding our wasted chances. It said that if we have converted at least one of those missed, where we had dropped points from we would be in the top 7 of the table. Unfortunately our lack of taking these chances have resulted in a relegation battle.
Threads like this always remind me of that classic Rik Mayall quote from Bottom:
I wish . . . I just wish . . . that everything could have been completely different.
I wish . . . I just wish . . . that everything could have been completely different.
Sirnormangall
Well-known member
- Sep 21, 2017
- 3,178
Yes, I’ll go with that. Looking at the games we’ve lost, there haven’t been many where we’ve been comfortably beaten (Leicester, Everton, Chelsea) and there haven’t been many where I thought we’ve been fortunate to win or draw. Undoubtedly we could and should be higher in the league and the main reason why we’re not is ( as many others have pointed out ad nauseam) poor finishing. I’d worry a lot more if we had failed to create chances.
Comrade Sam
Comrade Sam
Whilst we're probably better than the table shows, we are definitely awesome to watch at times. Until we were there, I never watched Premier League Football and had assumed bottom half teams were tut to watch. But I have watched buzzing with pride for at least 45 minutes of all but a couple of games this season and I'll take that for now.
Justice
Dangerous Idiot
Palace/Villa I would of been disappointed if Sanchez hadn’t made the same saves nothing spectacular really. As Maupay said they have generally played well for 45 minutes in a lot of games and that’s probably the crux of the league position.
super-seagulls
Soup! Why didn’t I get any Soup?
We’re effing Brilliant!
This time in the PL, rather than L1.
Next season we will start to realise this.
This time in the PL, rather than L1.
Next season we will start to realise this.
dejavuatbtn
Well-known member
If you are talking about playing attractive football, I would say we are exceptionally good, and have been for most of the season.
I would be quite happy to watch this type of football forever. Results aren’t everything. If they can score a few more, even better.
I would be quite happy to watch this type of football forever. Results aren’t everything. If they can score a few more, even better.
Weststander
Well-known member
Putting the justified euphoria to one side after the Stains win and the 3-0, I’d say about the same level of Leeds and Stains.
It could be argued that we were superior to those teams, but then they’ve beaten a load of teams we couldn’t.
It could be argued that we were superior to those teams, but then they’ve beaten a load of teams we couldn’t.
Perkino
Well-known member
- Dec 11, 2009
- 6,051
There have been many occasions where we have been on top and not scored a second goal, several times we have been ahead and naive defending has cost us a win. I wrote at the start of the season that progress would look like more than 10 wins and less than 10 draws, until we reach that level of consistency we will remain in a relegation battle
