[Finance] Housing Market

[Papak]

I'm 39, wife and 2 kids, and run a successful company, and I would guess am in the top 2 or 3% of earners in the UK. I live in a 3-bed semi in Haywards Heath and would like to buy a 4-bed detached property with a decent garden, 2 or 3 bathrooms, couple of reception rooms and a driveway in Cuckfield / Lindfield / Hurstpierpoint or one of those villages at some point in the next 5 years.

I feel like with the job I do and position I'm in, that doesn't sound too extravagant or ambitious. Yet the numbers simply don't add up. It would require around a £700K mortgage, which I wouldn't get, and monthly mortgage payments that would make the whole thing pointless.

I'm not moaning about it, because I'm incredibly fortunate to be in such a position, but I just find the situation absolutely insane. There are hundreds, if not thousands of houses like this within a 10 mile radius of me, but they seem completely unobtainable to someone like me. Yet I don't think there are hundreds, if not thousands of millionaires in the area that have mountains of cash available to buy these properties. So who lives in these houses? Is it just the Boomer generation who bought them in the 70s for £60K and have 3 empty bedrooms? Are their descendants just waiting for them to die so they can sell them and make the move up themselves?

It feels like unless you have some serious inheritance, and are unfortunate enough to get it early, then you have no real hope of living in a really nice house unless you are literally earning £300 or £400K a year.

If I was doing what I do in my parents generation in the 80s I'd be living in a massive house with a swimming pool and a tennis court. Inheritance seems to completely skew the housing market, now more than ever before. Will it continue forever?



Also disagree. You can't take someone out for a couple of bottles of wine and a nice dinner over Teams and build and improve a relationship. It's not the same.

Based on the above you must be running a successful company for someone else... or you aren't in the top 2 or 3% of earners or both.

 

[Sorrel]

We moved last year, just missing out on the stamp duty giveaway. It was clear that decent places were running away from us up in price as we looked from Feb 2021 until the late summer.

Under those conditions you can either decide to not move at all (and be better off) or go for it. So we did it and moved, but if prices are still going up now then we would be priced out of the home we bought. I guess when enough people are priced out the prices will start to stabilise if not actually drop.

The issue when we were looking was always people from London buying up anywhere near a railway station in Sussex, sometimes without even seeing the place. I do wonder who was buying their places back in London.

 

[usernamed]

Blimey. Joe Public doesn't get a look in? Who are these whales, sharks and minnows? Do you have any numbers on these transactions, because the industry data in front of me, suggests the polar opposite of what you claim.

https://www.financialreporter.co.uk/number-of-first-time-buyers-hits-20-year-high.html

And here's the same report from Zoopla, who you say are missing out on all this business from Joe Public:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/number-of-first-time-buyers-hits-20-year-high/

So you think organisations with large property portfolios that want to offload all or a portion of their portfolio sell each property individually through high street estate agents? Paying residential agents a commission per property?

Property is a global business. I’m not talking about the mum and dad landlords who inherited grandma’s house and rented it out rather than selling it. I’m talking about larger property portfolios.

If the property portfolio forms the entirety of a business, then it can work effectively as a merger, but there are property companies out there making a living at Business to Business property sales.

Here are a couple of local U.K. examples, though I don’t see why I should be doing your research for you:

https://www.allsop.co.uk/our-servic...al-and-living-markets/residential-investment/

https://www.waltonandallen.co.uk/sell-property-portfolio/

Savills are another one who operate in this area.

Equally, there are plenty of overseas investors who organise their deals through their source of finance, without ever viewing the properties in person themselves.

The minnows/sharks/whales comment only meant that as in most forms of business, if the portfolio looks attractive to somebody with deeper pockets than the current owners, it tends to change hands.

You’re not living up to your name Eric. I’m not saying it’s the only reason for agents reporting low stock, and while I would think there should be a way to get at some numbers (Land Registry? Changes of registered owner?) I’m not spending my evening researching exact numbers on how much B2B sales of residential property provides the answer to your question. Have a lovely evening.


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[Butch Willykins]

Bonkers in Shoreham. Loads of buyers, far too little coming to market.

 

[HantsSeagull]

massive under supply of property for sale at present. you can sell easily but you cant find anything to buy. so short term its a sellers market and prices are rising. how long that will last is anyones guess.

 

[Eric the meek]

So you think organisations with large property portfolios that want to offload all or a portion of their portfolio sell each property individually through high street estate agents? Paying residential agents a commission per property?

Property is a global business. I’m not talking about the mum and dad landlords who inherited grandma’s house and rented it out rather than selling it. I’m talking about larger property portfolios.

If the property portfolio forms the entirety of a business, then it can work effectively as a merger, but there are property companies out there making a living at Business to Business property sales.

Here are a couple of local U.K. examples, though I don’t see why I should be doing your research for you:

https://www.allsop.co.uk/our-servic...al-and-living-markets/residential-investment/

https://www.waltonandallen.co.uk/sell-property-portfolio/

Savills are another one who operate in this area.

Equally, there are plenty of overseas investors who organise their deals through their source of finance, without ever viewing the properties in person themselves.

The minnows/sharks/whales comment only meant that as in most forms of business, if the portfolio looks attractive to somebody with deeper pockets than the current owners, it tends to change hands.

You’re not living up to your name Eric. I’m not saying it’s the only reason for agents reporting low stock, and while I would think there should be a way to get at some numbers (Land Registry? Changes of registered owner?) I’m not spending my evening researching exact numbers on how much B2B sales of residential property provides the answer to your question. Have a lovely evening.


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Crumbs. Take it easy. All I did was post a couple of links which countered your claim that 'Joe Public doesn't get a look in' with the 'number of first time buyers at a 20 year high'. You evidently have a problem with facts. I'll remember that next time and adjust my style.

The irony is, if you had said it about pretty much any time period apart from the pandemic, it would have held greater weight.
And if you had said it about the bloodbath in the last few months of the 08-09 crash, I would have said I completely agree with you. Joe Public did not get a look in.

I'll end with this stat from earlier in 2021. Forget about cash purchases for a moment. First time buyer mortgage-backed purchases outnumber landlord mortgage-backed purchases by 6 to 1.

In this segment of the market, Joe Public is most certainly getting a look in, precisely because the purchases are mortgage-backed, and Joe bids up the price!

 

[Butch Willykins]

massive under supply of property for sale at present. you can sell easily but you cant find anything to buy. so short term its a sellers market and prices are rising. how long that will last is anyones guess.

This! Agents are very reluctant to even show you properties unless you are able to proceed (eg. cash buyer or have a buyer in place).

 

[dazzer6666]

Relatives recently bought a large property in Devon with a decent amount of land (between them sold two houses near Tiverton to buy one much bigger property). Missed out on several they liked due to ‘DFL’ buyers who were quite happy to immediately pay way more than the asking price for what came on to the market - sometimes without physically viewing. Less than 2.5 hours commute to London for people only having to go into the office maybe once or twice a week is seen as no barrier, so sell up in London, buy a country pile and pocket the difference

 

[knocky1]

Thank heavens I have bought a house 10 years ago as on those figures I couldn't afford to buy it but also couldn't afford to rent it.

I do think rents are mad as my mortgage is 2/5 what the rent would be. how can anyone save to break that cycle

I dont take any comfort in the fact my house has doubled in price as everything is relative and the next move would eat it all up.

I couldnt possibly upsize as the next step up would be detached etc and would be another £300k+ which I am not able to borrow or afford anyway. luckily I am settled where I am.

When I eventually downsize, I will have to look in cheaper areas to free up equity to live.

I argued with the wife last night who said that it was a struggle to buy my first property when I was 18 so its all the same - I said that my first property was £35k and I was earning £14k a year.

now the same flat would be £300,000 and a shop worker out of college isnt on £100k a year!!

You're 2/5 ratio of mortgage to rent sums it up. Ridiculous.

 

[usernamed]

Crumbs. Take it easy. All I did was post a couple of links which countered your claim that 'Joe Public doesn't get a look in' with the 'number of first time buyers at a 20 year high'. You evidently have a problem with facts. I'll remember that next time and adjust my style.

The irony is, if you had said it about pretty much any time period apart from the pandemic, it would have held greater weight.
And if you had said it about the bloodbath in the last few months of the 08-09 crash, I would have said I completely agree with you. Joe Public did not get a look in.

I'll end with this stat from earlier in 2021. Forget about cash purchases for a moment. First time buyer mortgage-backed purchases outnumber landlord mortgage-backed purchases by 6 to 1.

In this segment of the market, Joe Public is most certainly getting a look in, precisely because the purchases are mortgage-backed, and Joe bids up the price!

Crumbs. Take it easy. All I did was post a couple of links which countered your claim that 'Joe Public doesn't get a look in' with the 'number of first time buyers at a 20 year high'. You evidently have a problem with facts. I'll remember that next time and adjust my style.

The irony is, if you had said it about pretty much any time period apart from the pandemic, it would have held greater weight.
And if you had said it about the bloodbath in the last few months of the 08-09 crash, I would have said I completely agree with you. Joe Public did not get a look in.

I'll end with this stat from earlier in 2021. Forget about cash purchases for a moment. First time buyer mortgage-backed purchases outnumber landlord mortgage-backed purchases by 6 to 1.

In this segment of the market, Joe Public is most certainly getting a look in, precisely because the purchases are mortgage-backed, and Joe bids up the price!

Blimey, let’s recap:

1. You asked a question about housing stock, which I provided an answer to.

2. You then popped back with an attitude problem and an (incorrect) assertion that business to business sale/purchase of property portfolios weren’t a thing. To support this you provided a link to articles lauding the number of first time buyers there have been recently. While a tangential point of interest (as first time buyers do have to buy something) not the question you originally asked. Additionally, the article uses raw numbers of buyers to define the record, which makes it meaningless, coz there’s 9.1 million more people in the U.K. than there was in 2002 at the previous peak and 3.7m more dwellings.

3. I gave real world examples of businesses who act as brokers for business to business property portfolio transfers and also detailed other ways in which such business is currently conducted.

4. You responded with figures relating to mortgage backed purchases vs buy to let mortgage backed purchases, and included an ad hominem attack accusing me of having a problem with facts.

I feel you could still be missing the point I was originally trying to make, which was that once properties become part of a professional portfolio, many will subsequently be traded as part of a portfolio., rather than individually via a High Street estate agent or online portal.

It could well be that 2021 was a slow year for growth in buy to let, but that doesn’t change the fact that there was growth. As more properties are brought into the portfolios of larger players in the market, there’s less chance of them becoming available in the future for us mere mortals to buy. Even if the current owner decides to sell, they’re most likely to sell as part of a portfolio of property, selling to professional investors/property companies rather than the public.

I clearly offended you, I’m not really sure how, but my point still stands. TBH, I think I’m going to stick you on ignore, I’d hate to accidentally answer a question you asked in the future.


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[Knocky's Nose]

In a nutshell, in the 1800's there was a huge gap between the haves and have nots. Over time we developed a middle class. People who may not be rich, but also weren't poor.

Wealth is once again being polarised, slowly but surely. Property ownership is a great indicator of this (in my humble opinion)

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Only moving south by one mile from SE24 to SE27.. - My business is based here and and doing well enough to stay local, but never in my life did i think i'd be spending £750k on a house i've seen for 1.5 hours..

I know you think its a war-zone up here, but while i'm queuing for my toasted pannini in a 'chi-chi' Deli in West Dulwich (aka Gypsy Hill Borders) i dont see that (and yes, i'm lucky enough to not be in a demographic that is heavily affected)

On the whole house buying thing, this past year i've been in queues of c15 people, all with 15mins to commit to a purchase..

The real test is how many fried chicken takeaways you have. 2 or more it’s a ghetto.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Air BnB and the like have changed the market forever. I don’t know if that’s already been mentioned on this thread. Our eldest has just bought in Manchester but only by being the best bid of 19 !!! (10% over asking price). Property prices have gone crazy up here because of large portfolios of investment property.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...r-news/priced-out-moss-side-stag-22642189.amp

There is no sign of any of this going away and interest rates remain extremely low so I think house prices will continue to rise. The 18 buyers who missed out on my daughter’s house will move on to the next deal.

 

[moggy]

Many houses aren’t even making onto the shop windows. People are registering their interest in certain areas so when people want to sell their homes the estate agents already have lists of potential buyers

 

[dazzer6666]

Many houses aren’t even making onto the shop windows. People are registering their interest in certain areas so when people want to sell their homes the estate agents already have lists of potential buyers

Same with rentals……here at least anyway.

 

[mikeyjh]

Same with rentals……here at least anyway.

Yeah - I have houses in Swansea and back down in Worthing - Had a few moves at the end of the last year, it was absolutely mental, houses gone before they even made it online. Neither we nor our our agents have a particular understanding of what's going on.

 

[Machiavelli]

In a nutshell, in the 1800's there was a huge gap between the haves and have nots. Over time we developed a middle class. People who may not be rich, but also weren't poor.

Wealth is once again being polarised, slowly but surely. Property ownership is a great indicator of this (in my humble opinion)

You've more or less summarised the historical analysis of the evolution of in/equality produced by Thomas Piketty, and the growing research team around him. It was actually e20C that inequality went into reverse, and it started to grow again from about 1980. He's also very good at differentiating between assets and income, as you've done.

 

[Eric the meek]

Blimey, let’s recap:

1. You asked a question about housing stock, which I provided an answer to.

2. You then popped back with an attitude problem and an (incorrect) assertion that business to business sale/purchase of property portfolios weren’t a thing. To support this you provided a link to articles lauding the number of first time buyers there have been recently. While a tangential point of interest (as first time buyers do have to buy something) not the question you originally asked. Additionally, the article uses raw numbers of buyers to define the record, which makes it meaningless, coz there’s 9.1 million more people in the U.K. than there was in 2002 at the previous peak and 3.7m more dwellings.

3. I gave real world examples of businesses who act as brokers for business to business property portfolio transfers and also detailed other ways in which such business is currently conducted.

4. You responded with figures relating to mortgage backed purchases vs buy to let mortgage backed purchases, and included an ad hominem attack accusing me of having a problem with facts.

I feel you could still be missing the point I was originally trying to make, which was that once properties become part of a professional portfolio, many will subsequently be traded as part of a portfolio., rather than individually via a High Street estate agent or online portal.

It could well be that 2021 was a slow year for growth in buy to let, but that doesn’t change the fact that there was growth. As more properties are brought into the portfolios of larger players in the market, there’s less chance of them becoming available in the future for us mere mortals to buy. Even if the current owner decides to sell, they’re most likely to sell as part of a portfolio of property, selling to professional investors/property companies rather than the public.

I clearly offended you, I’m not really sure how, but my point still stands. TBH, I think I’m going to stick you on ignore, I’d hate to accidentally answer a question you asked in the future.


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The abridged version is as follows.

You didn't offend me. But I am bemused at your conduct. Every time I point out the facts to you, you ignore them and talk about something else.

You made an incorrect claim, that Joe Public doesn't get a look in. Of course he does, far more than anyone else.

I questioned your claim, and asked you to provide supporting data. You didn't provide any.

I posted a couple of links to recent articles, showing that first time buyers have hit a 20 year high. You ignored them and continued to talk about B2B.

I notice that you are still accusing me of a list of various misdemeanours, none of which are relevant. None of them change the fact that your claim is demonstrably wrong.

 

[zefarelly]

Going by your positive nsc persona, I'd hazard a guess that you enjoy life?

It can be small things, some people love just coffees out with the partner, walks, whatever makes folk happy.

I love skiing, but hamstrung by no alpine resorts in SE England, so I need to spend to satisfy my interest.

Most of my hobbies are self funding to a point. TBH the biggest life choice is living where I want to, where I'm happy. I don't feel the need to have to get away from the place. I do like travelling though. a few hundred miles on an old scooter for music and beer, or dragging an old car about to whizz round in circles

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Most of my hobbies are self funding to a point.

Never get high on your own supply!

TBH the biggest life choice is living where I want to, where I'm happy.

Totally agree.

I don't feel the need to have to get away from the place.

[MENTION=21158]Weststander[/MENTION] made the point about winter sports though. You have to 'get away' for this. I'm very happy where I live and I live in the middle of a city; I love snowboarding but the options are a bit limited here. And as much as I love the mountains I'd get bored living there all the time.