Government after the next election ?

[Leekbrookgull]

Not a fan of the 8/1 option !! http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=282167

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Not a fan of the 8/1 option !! http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=282167

That would be a suicide pact coalition because the SNP would insist on another independence referendum

 

[Machiavelli]

It would be the best option, because nobody would know what to do. The SNP would not insist on another independence referendum; they're not going to push for another one until they know they'll win.
As an option it would be fantastic, because it's the most likely to produce quite profound change. And boy do we need that, considering the shower of s***e that we have to put up with at the moment.

 

[narly101]

I like the 500/1 option - pie in a sky bet

 

[BensGrandad]

According to one of the papers Frank Lampard want to be a Tory MP when he retires from playing football.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

So according to the bookies it is over three times more likely UKIP will secure a majority government than the Lib Dems ? Really ?

 

[Hamilton]

According to one of the papers Frank Lampard want to be a Tory MP when he retires from playing football.

We get the politicians we deserve I guess.

 

[Hamilton]

I like the 500/1 option - pie in a sky bet

If everyone in the country put a bet on the Lib Dems at the same time and then we all voted Lib Dem then could we transfer the national debt to Paddypower?

 

[Elvis]

According to one of the papers Frank Lampard want to be a Tory MP when he retires from playing football.

His Uncle Harry to be Chancellor?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Not a fan of the 8/1 option !! http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=282167

Could well happen.

Alex Salmond as deputy PM. Interesting times.

 

[Machiavelli]

So according to the bookies it is over three times more likely UKIP will secure a majority government than the Lib Dems ? Really ?

Westdene, I do appreciate that things are looking up for you UKIPs at the moment, but there's a reason why bookies place odds, and that's because they've done their homework, rather than viewing things through purple-and-yellow-tinged spectacles. Despite NSC's Could UKIP form a government at the next general election thread reaching its gazillionth page, UKIP haven't got a chance of winning it, neither have the Lib Dems.
What is a slightly more interesting question is who will pick up most seats: the Lib Dems, or your UKIPs. Want a bet?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Westdene, I do appreciate that things are looking up for you UKIPs at the moment, but there's a reason why bookies place odds, and that's because they've done their homework, rather than viewing things through purple-and-yellow-tinged spectacles. Despite NSC's Could UKIP form a government at the next general election thread reaching its gazillionth page, UKIP haven't got a chance of winning it, neither have the Lib Dems.
What is a slightly more interesting question is who will pick up most seats: the Lib Dems, or your UKIPs. Want a bet?

That was my point - I'd suggest the odds should be the other way round - that the Lib Dems have a three fold better chance of forming a majority government. No need to bet - I know the Lib Dems will have more seats. My prediction - Lib Dems around the 25 mark and UKIP will have done well to get to 7 or 8.

 

[beorhthelm]

Westdene, I do appreciate that things are looking up for you UKIPs at the moment, but there's a reason why bookies place odds, and that's because they've done their homework, rather than viewing things through purple-and-yellow-tinged spectacles.

bollocks. they set up some prices and then adjust them according to what the punters are backing. they do not do their homework, the punters (might) do. and as many punters would be swayed by the prices offered, they can manipulate where the punters put their money. I wouldn't put much store by high street betting. now, betfair and finanical betting markets are a different story, because they do make the markets amongst themselves and im told there's some interestingly large money moved off the back of complex analysis

 

[Machiavelli]

That was my point - I'd suggest the odds should be the other way round - that the Lib Dems have a three fold better chance of forming a majority government. No need to bet - I know the Lib Dems will have more seats. My prediction - Lib Dems around the 25 mark and UKIP will have done well to get to 7 or 8.

That Lib Dems prediction sounds about right to me. I think you might be pleasantly surprised by UKIP, and think they'll get about double that, while being reckless in Rochester.
What's your most likely scenario for the GE itself? Or is it too open-ended to call?

 

[Machiavelli]

bollocks. they set up some prices and then adjust them according to what the punters are backing. they do not do their homework, the punters (might) do. and as many punters would be swayed by the prices offered, they can manipulate where the punters put their money. I wouldn't put much store by high street betting. now, betfair and finanical betting markets are a different story, because they do make the markets amongst themselves and im told there's some interestingly large money moved off the back of complex analysis

You are charming. And how do you think bookmakers open their prices out of interest?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

That Lib Dems prediction sounds about right to me. I think you might be pleasantly surprised by UKIP, and think they'll get about double that, while being reckless in Rochester.
What's your most likely scenario for the GE itself? Or is it too open-ended to call?

I think it will swing on Labour's showing in Scotland. If the SNP win a lot up there then they will become king makers. Nailed on for a hung parliament I would say. One of four possibilities :

1. Labour minority government
2. Labour + SNP coalition
3. Labour + Lib Dem coalition
4. Tory + UKIP coalition

.... and in that order.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Paddy Power odds on Next Prime Minster after David Cameron has David Miliband at 66-1. I'm not a betting man but if I was I'd have a cheeky tenner on it.

 

[Machiavelli]

I think it will swing on Labour's showing in Scotland. If the SNP win a lot up there then they will become king makers. Nailed on for a hung parliament I would say. One of four possibilities :

1. Labour minority government
2. Labour + SNP coalition
3. Labour + Lib Dem coalition
4. Tory + UKIP coalition

.... and in that order.

Good call. I haven't devoted that much thought to it, but this seems a plausible hierarchy at present (a week is a long time in politics, of course). As I indicated on another thread, it's Ashcroft's marginal polling which is most revealing.
On a separate note, as you've wisely refused a bet with me, I think you ought to prise some money out of the bookies based on this. I had two connected bets at the last GE, which predicted Tory seats in the range of 275 and 325.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think it will swing on Labour's showing in Scotland. If the SNP win a lot up there then they will become king makers. Nailed on for a hung parliament I would say. One of four possibilities :

there's no good reason at present to exclude the obvious 5th possibility of Tory + Liberals. and the way the seats go in Scotland mean Labour + SNP + Liberal has to be considered

 

[Seagull on the wing]

With Salmond standing for Westminster isn't ironic that no English parliamentarian can stand in the Scottish parliament...do we want Scotland having the right of setting our laws and agenda...after Blair and Brown done such a good job of running this country down with illegal wars and economic disaster