[Albion] Goallessness in EL vs PL

[Colonel Mustard]

Is it just a quirk of fate that we've conceded goals in every Premier League game we've played since Arsenal away in May, but have managed to keep clean sheets in our last 4 Europa League games? Is there a logical reason for this? It's perplexing me.

 

[Is it PotG?]

 

[Austrian Gull]

For different reasons, Ajax and Marseille both parked the bus at the Amex and we got lucky with the woodwork.

We've been master of our own downfall at times in the league...

 

[Javeaseagull]

Is it just a quirk of fate that we've conceded goals in every Premier League game we've played since Arsenal away in May, but have managed to keep clean sheets in our last 4 Europa League games? Is there a logical reason for this? It's perplexing me.

Maybe PL teams have got more of a grip on how we play than EL? Just a thought. We did have a bit of luck when Marseille hit the woodwork twice but we are used to living dangerously!

 

[Justice]

Yes Steele can play out very well unfortunately he isn’t very good at stopping the ball going the net. Fulham’s goal for an example wasn’t that great of a shot and went straight through him.
If ever you see a team not trusting their keeper it’s ours.

 

[Eric the meek]

Very good question.

A better statistician than me will tell you that the chances of it happening at random (by chance) are really very small.
(But please don't ask me to work out what the probability actually is).

So we are left with the conclusion 'it is very likely there is a valid reason'. But I don't know what it is though.

This isn't very helpful is it?

 

[Javeaseagull]

Yes Steele can play out very well unfortunately he isn’t very good at stopping the ball going the net. Fulham’s goal for an example wasn’t that great of a shot and went straight through him.
If ever you see a team not trusting their keeper it’s ours.

Could be that de Zerbi is gambling on the fact that if we have the ball most of the time our goalie faces less shots? He is prepared to risk the better shot stopping for better ball distribution, is my take on it but I don’t really know, just guessing.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

.........
So we are left with the conclusion 'it is very likely there is a valid reason'. But I don't know what it is though.

This isn't very helpful is it?

No, but I'm glad you share my puzzlement.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

I think Steele and Verbruggen have had 2 games each of the 4 goalless ones so it doesn't seem to be connected with choice of GK.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Yes Steele can play out very well unfortunately he isn’t very good at stopping the ball going the net. Fulham’s goal for an example wasn’t that great of a shot and went straight through him.
If ever you see a team not trusting their keeper it’s ours.

Jason Steele has kept two of the 4 clean sheets in the Europa League so that kind of kills your argument straight away. As does the fact you clearly don’t remember the Fulham goal correctly, decent shot with pace from the edge of the area well away from the keeper, was nowhere near going straight through him at all.

 

[Weststander]

Worse opposition?

The worst Ajax team in 65 years, AEK weren’t up to much once we got over stage fright, Marseille had inept finishers.

The PL is the richest league in the world with backers investing £b’s over true profit and loss. Bmuff spent big last January, under the radar Khan at Fulham I think may’ve invested 3x that of TB on players. The point being every team has danger men and game changer who can undo 75 minutes of good defence.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Very good question.

A better statistician than me will tell you that the chances of it happening at random (by chance) are really very small.
(But please don't ask me to work out what the probability actually is).

So we are left with the conclusion 'it is very likely there is a valid reason'. But I don't know what it is though.

This isn't very helpful is it?

We have scored and conceded in 20 consecutive league games, and have scored but not conceded in 4 of 8 Europa games.

20/20 versus 4/8

The Chi2 test won't run if one category value is zero (as it is here for league games where we don't conced). So I have pretended we didn't concede in 1 league game (and balanced it up by reducing the number of games we we did).

What this shows is that simply focusing on the not conceding aspect (which makes sense as we scored in all our games, EPL and Euro) this still shows a statistically significant difference between EPL outcome and Euro outcome.

I would therefore conclude the two competitions are 'different populations', (in other words different competitions, in which our chance of not conceding is greater in one versus the other).

That was a five minute job

 

[studio150]

The EL match ball is totally different to the PL match ball and the dip and swerve is not as as pronounced

(pure guess, but sounds good)

 

[RandyWanger]

Jason Steele has kept two of the 4 clean sheets in the Europa League so that kind of kills your argument straight away

0 shots on goal in the OLM game and 1 for Ajax for Steele in those clean sheets. Steele had to make 1 save in those games.

I think I could match those stats.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

We have scored and conceded in 20 consecutive league games, and have scored but not conceded in 4 of 8 Europa games.

20/20 versus 4/8

The Chi2 test won't run if one category value is zero (as it is here for league games where we don't conced). So I have pretended we didn't concede in 1 league game (and balanced it up by reducing the number of games we we did).

View attachment 171371

What this shows is that simply focusing on the not conceding aspect (which makes sense as we scored in all our games, EPL and Euro) this still shows a statistically significant difference between EPL outcome and Euro outcome.

I would therefore conclude the two competitions are 'different populations', (in other words different competitions, in which our chance of not conceding is greater in one versus the other).

That was a five minute job

Hmm, but that was sort of plumbed into my starting point — that we are seeing markedly different stats in two different competitions! Or ‘populations', as you’d have it. What are these populations doing differently?!

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

We have scored and conceded in 20 consecutive league games, and have scored but not conceded in 4 of 8 Europa games.

20/20 versus 4/8

The Chi2 test won't run if one category value is zero (as it is here for league games where we don't conced). So I have pretended we didn't concede in 1 league game (and balanced it up by reducing the number of games we we did).

View attachment 171371

What this shows is that simply focusing on the not conceding aspect (which makes sense as we scored in all our games, EPL and Euro) this still shows a statistically significant difference between EPL outcome and Euro outcome.

I would therefore conclude the two competitions are 'different populations', (in other words different competitions, in which our chance of not conceding is greater in one versus the other).

That was a five minute job

A five minute job in which you've concluded we've played 8 Europa League games?

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

If ever you see a team not trusting their keeper it’s ours.

Really?

 

[GT49er]

I'm backing random chance.

 

[Eeyore]

Worse opposition?

The worst Ajax team in 65 years, AEK weren’t up to much once we got over stage fright, Marseille had inept finishers.

The PL is the richest league in the world with backers investing £b’s over true profit and loss. Bmuff spent big last January, under the radar Khan at Fulham I think may’ve invested 3x that of TB on players. The point being every team has danger men and game changer who can undo 75 minutes of good defence.

I would agree with that. The 'Group of Death' seemed more like the 'Group of Meh' Apart from the stage fright Albion could have won all six matches. I think Marseille may be better if we faced them again though.

The teams I least want to face are West Ham, Liverpool and AC Milan.

 

[Giraffe]

I would say it feels like we have played a more consistent and arguably better team in the Europa League, generally. Including starting with Dunk and Van Hecke as centre halves on those clean sheet games? Also feel the midfield has been stronger in most of those games in general.