[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Chicken Run]

Think they'll come out with something like "the British public have been hoodwinked by labour's lies and if only they had trusted us for the future as we've learnt from our mistakes".

I’m waiting for the first chump on here to moan that the outgoing treasury office left a note saying there’s no more money and then be outraged

 

[Napper]

That would be

Still think labour get over 450 and Tory under 100

legendary and a memory that will last our life times

Think they will get a lot more than that but hoping their pain will be real

 

[Eeyore]

So it forecasts Labour is about to take a 212 seat majority with a lower percentage of the vote than it got under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.

 

[oldboyroy]

Over 100 seats for the Tories. Boooo https://yougov.co.uk/politics/artic...abour-on-course-for-historic-election-victory

Yep. Far too much blue still!

 

[beorhthelm]

Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister.

The Labour leader told reporters on Wednesday he did not think Britain would go back into any of the three blocs while he was alive, all but ruling out rejoining even if he wins a second term in office.

seems bold, but pushes the matter off the agenda. probably spoken to a lot of European leaders and weighed up how it might or might not work. expect something more practical like improved trading arrangement, maybe even one that that looks and smells like customs union, but called something entirely different.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Still think labour get over 450 and Tory under 100

Indeed.

This ‘supermajority’ BS from the Tories will have the same effect as the last minute rolling out of that swine Johnson will have.

Tories will stay at home. There is a huge group of undecided voters whose natural instinct is ‘what’s in it for me?’ Why support a party when they are about to be crushed. Why get off your fat Tory ass to place a vote when the party has just undertaken probably the worst election campaign in history?

A Labour win is good, even with a small majority.
A Labour landslide beating the ‘97 total would be amazing.
But a result with Tory MPs on the double figures would be historic, utterly brilliant and wonderful for this country. Especially if somehow they could come third.

 

[KZNSeagull]

seems bold, but pushes the matter off the agenda. probably spoken to a lot of European leaders and weighed up how it might or might not work. expect something more practical like improved trading arrangement, maybe even one that that looks and smells like customs union, but called something entirely different.

I can see why he has said this - he totally rejected a customs union when opposing May's deal in an attempt to bring down that government. As a statesman though he has to keep all options on the table, even ones which he knows are right but makes him look like a bit of an arse.

 

[oldboyroy]

Still think labour get over 450 and Tory under 100

Hope so!

 

[KZNSeagull]

So it forecasts Labour is about to take a 212 seat majority with a lower percentage of the vote than it got under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.

And the new PM will have the lowest approval rating of any PM on taking office (or something like that - source: The Rest is Politics)

 

[Audax]

There's a site that has aggregated all of the MRP polls that have been run (13 on the site currently). And it has some neat filtering tools that makes it possible to analyse the level of agreement between all of them. So I took a look, and it's interesting.

I grabbed the numbers for levels of agreement for the big 3 parties (all of the minor parties at this level are negligible, even SNP) and got this:

Party	13 agree	12 agree	11 agree	10 agree	9 agree
Labour	358	398	418	432	440
Tory	11	25	42	52	58
Lib Dem	26	36	40	47	53

What I take out of this ... there is actually a realistic possibility of the Lib Dems beating the Tories. While the general consensus is that the Conservatives will win more seats, the degree of agreement across the 13 MRP polls falls away remarkably for them. What this shows, I think, is just how fragile the Tory position is. A strong tactical voting turnout could see them in a lot of trouble vs the Lib Dems, as could a strong "shy Reform" turnout. Equally, a weak turnout from Tory supporters could also see them crumble.

 

[KVLT]

Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister.

The Labour leader told reporters on Wednesday he did not think Britain would go back into any of the three blocs while he was alive, all but ruling out rejoining even if he wins a second term in office.

Hmmm. I'm not entirely happy about the way this is worded given that It's not a direct quote from Starmer but the words of a journalist.

Especially the use of the word insisted and the assertion that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister.

The BBC reporting of it reads rather differently and is in keeping with what he's said for some time:

The Labour leader said he doesn’t think the UK will rejoin the EU’s single market or customs union within his lifetime.

Asked if he could see any circumstances in which that might be a possibility, he replied: "No, I don’t think that that is going to happen. I’ve been really clear about not rejoining the EU, the single market or the customs union or returning to freedom of movement."

He added: "I’ve been equally clear that I do think we can get a better deal than the botched deal we got under Boris Johnson."

 

[Eeyore]

Indeed.

This ‘supermajority’ BS from the Tories will have the same effect as the last minute rolling out of that swine Johnson will have.

Tories will stay at home. There is a huge group of undecided voters whose natural instinct is ‘what’s in it for me?’ Why support a party when they are about to be crushed. Why get off your fat Tory ass to place a vote when the party has just undertaken probably the worst election campaign in history?

A Labour win is good, even with a small majority.
A Labour landslide beating the ‘97 total would be amazing.
But a result with Tory MPs on the double figures would be historic, utterly brilliant and wonderful for this country. Especially if somehow they could come third.

The super majority rhetoric is more contempt for the public. The Tories had a super majority at the last election. 80 gives them total control of the legislature and nothing can be done about it. 80 is no different to 440. Excepting that rebellions are easier to put down.

 

[TomandJerry]

Close results in constituencies at the election could be challenged in the high court because of delayed postal votes, experts have said.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

I don't think I've ever seen a betting market where you can't get a bet on before the race effectively starts. Extraordinary really given the result at the last election.

 

[TomandJerry]

I don't think I've ever seen a betting market where you can't get a bet on before the race effectively starts. Extraordinary really given the result at the last election.

View attachment 185083

What's the odds of a hung parliament?

 

[sparkie]

Keir Starmer has said he can see “no circumstances” in which the UK will rejoin the EU’s single market, customs union or freedom of movement within his lifetime.


Source: The Times

Boooooooooooooooo

 

[Iggle Piggle]

What's the odds of a hung parliament?

33-1

 

[sparkie]

It really is all about the Portillos tomorrow.

Rees-Mogg
Truss
Sunak
Hunt

are all nominated for an award.

 

[A1X]

 

[TomandJerry]

View attachment 185084

33-1

I'll have a small nibble at those odds.