General Election 2017

[The Rivet]

Well this is gonna be the most interesting election for a very, very long time. I am naturally Tory, after supporting Smith, Kinnock and Blair first time around. I am also a 'remainer'.

Voting for Jezza would really stick in my throat, the man is a stupid ideologist. But his party is offering some common sense on Brexit. Allowing EU nationals to stay, allowing those with job offers to join us, and aiming to create some kind of customs treaty with the EU. I believe the referendum decision should be respected but to what degree? As a committed Tory I am very undecided right now........

Jezza is a communist but his name is not Kim Philby just Jezza. His party offers no common sense on Brexit at all. A customs treaty would entail us being accepting of the ECJ and paying yearly into EU coffers. The referendum should be finite. No ECJ superior laws, no ability to govern us. Our laws, our borders, our money, our waters. No free movement. Our decision end of.

 

[Weststander]

Well this is gonna be the most interesting election for a very, very long time. I am naturally Tory, after supporting Smith, Kinnock and Blair first time around. I am also a 'remainer'.

Voting for Jezza would really stick in my throat, the man is a stupid ideologist. But his party is offering some common sense on Brexit. Allowing EU nationals to stay, allowing those with job offers to join us, and aiming to create some kind of customs treaty with the EU. I believe the referendum decision should be respected but to what degree? As a committed Tory I am very undecided right now........

The Tory Government will allow those EU citizens the rights you mention. Kerr Starmer today was trying to make capital out of something we all know will happen anyway. The government are simply not stating it 100% at present, as the negotiations with the EU haven't started.

It is an interesting election. Will the traditional Labour votr crumble in part to follow other parties for various reasons?

 

[Soulman]

The Tory Government will allow those EU citizens the rights you mention. Kerr Starmer today was trying to make capital out of something we all know will happen anyway. The government are simply not stating it 100% at present, as the negotiations with the EU haven't started.

As has been stated many many many times, the EU citizens will get the rights to remain, as will others, the hand will not be shown until the negotiations start.....obvious and sensible really.

 

[Weststander]

As has been stated many many many times, the EU citizens will get the rights to remain, as will others, the hand will not be shown until the negotiations start.....obvious and sensible really.

We are singing from the same hymn sheet. I agreed with all your comments on this.

 

[Weststander]

Newsnight on BBC2 just now. Had detailed analysis that 46% of Labour's 2015 voters in the crucial north and midlands, who voted for brexit in 2016, will not vote for Labour this time. Not necessarily for one single other party, but spread, which in the many key marginals would have a big impact. In addition to that, a significant proportion of those 2015 Labour voters who voted Remain, will vote for other parties this time presumably LibDem. The squeeze on Labour's already hard pressed vote will be problematic!

 

[The Rivet]

Newsnight on BBC2 just now. Had detailed analysis that 46% of Labour's 2015 voters in the crucial north and midlands, who voted for brexit in 2016, will not vote for Labour this time. Not necessarily for one single other party, but spread, which in the many key marginals would have a big impact. In addition to that, a significant proportion of those 2015 Labour voters who voted Remain, will vote for other parties this time presumably LibDem. The squeeze on Labour's already hard pressed vote will be problematic!

I'd replace that with 'insurmountable' for Labour.

 

[Weststander]

I'd replace that with 'insurmountable' for Labour.

It was deliberately understated, to avoid further depressing the last few comrades on here.

 

[The Rivet]

It was deliberately understated, to avoid further depressing the last few comrades on here.

Oh I wouldn't worry about that empathy too much. I'd leave them desperate.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Well this is gonna be the most interesting election for a very, very long time. I am naturally Tory, after supporting Smith, Kinnock and Blair first time around. I am also a 'remainer'.

Voting for Jezza would really stick in my throat, the man is a stupid ideologist. But his party is offering some common sense on Brexit. Allowing EU nationals to stay, allowing those with job offers to join us, and aiming to create some kind of customs treaty with the EU. I believe the referendum decision should be respected but to what degree? As a committed Tory I am very undecided right now........

Hope you don't get caught in the stampede of people heading in the opposite direction.

 

[studio150]

Yet we are still getting the scaremongering from the easily taken in, on this forum.

And we still get people posting ridiculous comments as their opinions which when challenged they can not substantiate. Who apart from the deluded would suggest that the current French election is rigged?

 

[studio150]

Daily Telegraph prints misleading (and loaded) headline......hold the front page!

The article goes on to say:
Guidance posted on the Home Office website urges people not to apply and to instead sign up to receive an email alert which will inform them of any changes to their circumstances. The guidance states: “You do not need to do anything as a result of Article 50 being triggered.
There will be no change to the rights and status of EU nationals living in the UK while the UK remains in the EU".

This is in response to 92000 EU nationals who have sadly swallowed Project Fear hook line and sinker and have rushed in panic to apply for full UK status, thus swamping the system. The Home Office is offering to let them know in advance if there is likely to be a problem for them remaining in the UK (which will only happen if the EU decides not to act reasonably in the forthcoming negotiations).

It is not project fear. Although Mrs May has indicated that she wants this issue resolved quickly in the negotiating process she has not gone as far as Labour and others have stated that they would saveguard the EU citizens rights now and then seek for the EU to do likewise for EU citizens in the EU.

The current stance of the Home Office just looks like they don't want to provide UK citizenship as it removes these EU citizens from the negotiating table.

 

[wellquickwoody]

Hope you don't get caught in the stampede of people heading in the opposite direction.

I am beginning to wonder if this election will be as one sided as I originally thought, time will tell.

 

[mikeyjh]

It's amazing that educated people (I'm assuming you're educated) can be so stupid.

For the record, I'm not educated, unless you count 4 GCSEs . Not stupid though, arrogant or just wrong you could argue, but not stupid!

 

[mikeyjh]

I never made the post you are responding to, however there is evidently a nuanced view on the burka within the Muslim community.

That said, your assessment on the motives of this UKIP policy is more interesting. Their proposal is already a matter of law in other European countries and regions, it is a policy advocated by Merkel.

Bemoaning UKIP as anti Islamic completely misses this point.........your prejudice is astounding.

Obvious question, but I'll ask it anyway, as I'm missing the point, what is it?

 

[Goldstone1976]

Daily Telegraph prints misleading (and loaded) headline......hold the front page!

The article goes on to say:
Guidance posted on the Home Office website urges people not to apply and to instead sign up to receive an email alert which will inform them of any changes to their circumstances. The guidance states: “You do not need to do anything as a result of Article 50 being triggered.
There will be no change to the rights and status of EU nationals living in the UK while the UK remains in the EU".

This is in response to 92000 EU nationals who have sadly swallowed Project Fear hook line and sinker and have rushed in panic to apply for full UK status, thus swamping the system. The Home Office is offering to let them know in advance if there is likely to be a problem for them remaining in the UK (which will only happen if the EU decides not to act reasonably in the forthcoming negotiations).

My gf's mother is a French national who's lived in the UK for 40+ years. She asked me what to do. I said she should do nothing, it'll be ok, it's just a negotiating tactic. She continued fretting, so I pointed her to a Partner specialising in immigration law that I use for my work immigration stuff. His advice, paraphrased, was "it'll probably be ok, but under this Government you currently have no guarantee. If you wait for confirmation that you need to do nothing and then find that you do need to do something after all, you'll be at the back of a very long queue. While I think that everything will be fine, my advice is that you apply now, as insurance. You can always withdraw the application later if your status is confirmed." In the cold light of day, I found it impossible to argue with that advice. I've filled in the forms for her and she's sending them off...

 

[Soulman]

My gf's mother is a French national who's lived in the UK for 40+ years. She asked me what to do. I said she should do nothing, it'll be ok, it's just a negotiating tactic. She continued fretting, so I pointed her to a Partner specialising in immigration law that I use for my work immigration stuff. His advice, paraphrased, was "it'll probably be ok, but under this Government you currently have no guarantee. If you wait for confirmation that you need to do nothing and then find that you do need to do something after all, you'll be at the back of a very long queue. While I think that everything will be fine, my advice is that you apply now, as insurance. You can always withdraw the application later if your status is confirmed." In the cold light of day, I found it impossible to argue with that advice. I've filled in the forms for her and she's sending them off...

Good luck, though I do not think it will be needed.

 

[Audax]

so you'd have the same view on those that didnt vote had the remain side "won" without a clear majority of the entire electorate?

Key difference is that without a clear majority, the "status quo" wins by default. So yes, I would hold the same view (ie, if we were out and the referendum had been about joining, I'd argue the same: that a 52/48 split on a 72% turnout is not a clear enough mandate). The referendum was held to seek a mandate for change, and my opinion is that despite Leave "winning" that mandate is no where near as clear as the Tories have been claiming. Especially when the campaigns (both sides, unfortunately) were marred by potentially illegal campaigning techniques and spending.

[...]the only fair way to count those that dont vote, is to not count them. btw in Parliament, they count abstentions for the record, but they do not count for or against the vote: if the Government has 200 votes, the opposition 190, and the rest abstain, the government wins.

Have looked into it, and you're right for a vast majority of parliamentary votes. I was misled by some reporting on the recent vote on approving the early GE (where sufficient abstentions apparently could have defeated the motion). So my bad on that one.

I still firmly believe that the democratic mandate in favour of Brexit is not clear enough, however. That may simply be my Aussie background, where referendums that seek to make such a large change are a) mandatory vote*, b) require a national majority, and c) require a majority of states to have a majority. But I don't think that's all of why I feel this way. I simply don't believe that something that will have such a profound effect on this nation should be pushed through so aggressively on the basis of such a tight referendum result. Especially when looking at the demographics of the vote: the younger the voter, the stronger the vote in favour of Remain - and these younger voters are the ones who are going to have to live the longest with the outcome.

(* It is only mandatory to turn up and get your name marked as having attended. What you do from there is up to you: you can quite legally put a blank slip in the box, or write something foul mouthed on it. The most recent referendum held in Australia had a 95% voter turnout, and just under 1% of the votes cast were "informal" or blank ... effectively an abstention).

 

[hans kraay fan club]

How is the EU doing? Are they offering reciprocal rights to expats at this time? Prid pro quo comes to mind. Or are the EU dictating? I know what I think.

You do realize that they are in the position of strength here?

Are we really going to play hardball about 'sending back' the nurses, Polish plumbers and Eastern European fruit-pickers we need (and the pretty Spanish girls from all the Brighton shops) in return for the millions of our pensioners currently hoovering up resources in France and Spain?

 

[Audax]

Not going to go through your whole post. Sufficient to say that I disagree with it.

Two points I must make, though.
Firstly, I have made no assumption about the views of those who didn't vote. I've no idea what percentage of them wanted to remain, or wanted to leave, or just couldn't care either way. The fact, though, is that in a democracy whenever an election or referendum is held, the views of those that do not vote are not taken into account. They have, in effect, tacitly handed the decision making to those who do vote. End of story.
Secondly, UK elections and referendums are just what it says on the tin. They are elections or referendums of the whole UK as a single entity. What happened last summer wasn't a referendum for Scotland, a referendum for Wales, a referendum for England and another for NI - it was a UK referendum. If you're going to exempt Scotland and NI from accepting the result, it would be only fair to claim an exemption from Brexit for London, Bristol and Liverpool too. Good luck with that one!

On your first point - that wasn't aimed at you, more at the rampant pro-Brexit politicians who keep claiming they have a clear mandate for hard Brexit using some rather loaded language.

On your second - yes, that's the way they are set up currently. I personally (opinion, here) find it unacceptable that when there are such clear differences of opinion between the separate 'states' that make up the UK, that two of the states are going to be dragged into a hard Brexit that they clearly do not want because the most populous 'state' voted in favour by a narrow majority. While we live in a union (the UK), it is a union of separate cultures that (for Brexit and a range of other issues) have clear differences of opinion.

Your argument re: individual cities is spurious here, I'm afraid. Those cities do not enjoy the same status as Scotland / Wales / Northern Ireland. Those cities are fully integrated parts of England, and I'm quite happy for them to have to accede to the wishes of the majority England vote. There is a major difference between individual cities and the individual member states of the UK. Unless, of course, you think that London enjoys the same legal right to request an independence referendum that Scotland does?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I am beginning to wonder if this election will be as one sided as I originally thought, time will tell.

I know polls are sometimes wrong but the consistent 20+ lead the Tories hold suggests a landslide win. They also indicate a significant revival in Scotland beating Labour into a poor third and remarkably that Wales could go Tory.

Wonder what excuses Corbyn and his cheerleaders will use if these polls turn out to be accurate .. all the media's fault?