[Politics] FAO Brighton Pavilion Constituents Greens or Reds?

[Brovion]

And there I was thinking you were a lost cause, but that the others in your house could be worked on
Yes, you're welcome to, and you can do so with the added incentive that this is the most consequential election in Pavilion since 2010 and, with a bit of luck, several parliaments ahead, as it's the crucial Caroline-Sian hoped-for crossover. Caroline has got increased majorities at every election off the back of being a brilliant constituency MP, which Sian has also said is her key priority, yet the Greens will lose votes due to the loss of Caroline.
If you do vote Green and they're successful, not only will they be able to boast that they've never lost a seat, there will be more (welcome) diversity in parliament, and the government will be scrutinised from a position more in-tune with your values.
You know you want to.

Elaine always voted for Lucas! Our votes used to cancel each other out!

Seriously (and I feel disloyal even saying it), I am considering it. If the opinion polls were predicting a closer national result I'd probably stay tribal and hope we could get the seat back, but as it looks (please God) as if it will be a massive Labour landslide I'm way more ambivalent - indeed I hope the Lib-Dems and Greens get a few more seats. And as I said if I were more of a floater I'd probably vote Green on the strength of their manifesto alone.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Green for me. Brighton needs an independent voice not another yes man for Labour. Sian is an experienced campaigner and a good candidate she will be a great MP. The contest will be tight though, Caroline had a big personal vote and the Labour Party has done its best to undermine the Greens locally over the last few years.

That's an excellent point. Dave Lepper suffered the appalling train service from Brighton to London when it was at its worst and never seemed willing to put his criticise the rail status quo or call for renationalisation.

I vote Labour. I always vote Labour/Socialist Labour, however having read the manifestos (ok, the summaries) I was actually most impressed by the (gulp) ...... Greens. Can I vote Green? (Again. I did once back in 1989 in the Euros). As someone else said Labour's was incredibly disappointing.

They say you get more right-wing as you get older, and here I am at 67 finally admitting that despite my council estate upbringing I really might be a middle-class member of the petite bourgeoisie!

​

Frankly, looking at the Green and Labour manifestos, I'd say you were getting more left-wing by voting Green. So nothing to worry about on that score.

 

[Gwylan]

Elaine always voted for Lucas! Our votes used to cancel each other out!

That reminds me of the story told on TMS, of Jack Russell and Bill Athey playing for Gloucestershire at some northern county and, having not applied for a postal vote, drove all the way back home together after close of play, voted and drove all the way back - even though one voted Labour and one voted Tory (no prizes for guessing which is which) and cancelled out each other's vote. It was presented as an example of them being slightly bonkers, but I think it's a wonderful example of civic responsibility.

 

[Chicken Run]

So far then a majority won’t be voting Green on this board in this constituency, would be a travesty if the Greens get in without the popular vote

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Yesterdays IPSOS MRP poll shows voting intention in Brighton Pavilion is currently Labour 51% with the Greens lagging behind on 34%

 

[Chicken Run]

Yesterdays IPSOS MRP poll shows voting intention in Brighton Pavilion is currently Labour 51% with the Greens lagging behind on 34%

Don’t trust the polls

 

[Man of Harveys]

Yesterdays IPSOS MRP poll shows voting intention in Brighton Pavilion is currently Labour 51% with the Greens lagging behind on 34%

Excellent. Hope that comes true.

 

[Machiavelli]

Yesterdays IPSOS MRP poll shows voting intention in Brighton Pavilion is currently Labour 51% with the Greens lagging behind on 34%

YouGov suggesting otherwise:

Greens expected to add a second seat, but aren’t close to winning a third

The Green Party is expected to secure two seats in the upcoming election, Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central. The Brighton seat has been held by the Greens since 2010, and they are currently on course to take a majority of the vote (57%), with Labour following on a distant 28%. Bristol Central would be a Green gain from Labour, with the party currently on 50% to Labour’s 37%.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I do love a poll

 

[Weststander]

YouGov suggesting otherwise:

Greens expected to add a second seat, but aren’t close to winning a third

The Green Party is expected to secure two seats in the upcoming election, Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central. The Brighton seat has been held by the Greens since 2010, and they are currently on course to take a majority of the vote (57%), with Labour following on a distant 28%. Bristol Central would be a Green gain from Labour, with the party currently on 50% to Labour’s 37%.

One of the betting websites has effectively spelt out the same result all along. Winning those two, but long odds outsiders in the other Bristol seats, the Norwich seat they’re after, etc.

 

[Machiavelli]

One of the betting websites has effectively spelt out the same result all along. Winning those two, but long odds outsiders in the other Bristol seats, the Norwich seat they’re after, etc.

I found the IPSOS MVP surprising and concerning. I don't know too much on the accuracy of MVP but the wild difference between IPSOS and YouGov in Pavilion suggest that it's in its infancy. IPSOS survey is based on just short of 20,000, which works out as 30 per constituency if evenly distributed which is a pretty small sample (they do ask extra questions, eg who did you vote for in the last GE).

 

[Machiavelli]

Here's IPSOS' description of their method:

Two models underpin the estimates: the first estimates turnout rates, and the second estimates party choice. They include various factors about each panellist – such as their age and gender – and the constituency in which they live. MRP models are very sensitive to the assumptions that go into each model, and changing the assumptions can have a significant impact on the final seat estimates. For example, past vote is a strong predictor of future vote and we include it in our party choice model. However, we know that recall of past vote can be inaccurate due to false recall. We account for this by adjusting the overall past vote targets so that they match what we find in the survey data. The election will be contest on revised constituency boundaries. Our models rely on constituency-based information on previous vote. We have used the notional 2019 results on the revised boundaries produced by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. Both the turnout and party choice are Bayesian models: they return a full distribution of predictions in each case, rather than a simple point estimate. Each draw from this distribution is, in effect, a separate simulation of what might happen at a real election. We summarise the outcomes for each constituency across 1,000 simulations. We then aggregate up these data across all simulations to estimate the likely vote share and lower- and upper-bounds for each party in each constituency. Note that, since we summarise these data on a party-by-party basis, the sum of the expected vote shares is likely to be close to but not equal to 100%. All constituency vote shares are accompanied by confidence intervals. We have called individual seats as strong or likely wins, leaning, or toss ups (broadly based on size of leads, with some adjustment for incumbency at the margins).

 

[Weststander]

I found the IPSOS MVP surprising and concerning. I don't know too much on the accuracy of MVP but the wild difference between IPSOS and YouGov in Pavilion suggest that it's in its infancy. IPSOS survey is based on just short of 20,000, which works out as 30 per constituency if evenly distributed which is a pretty small sample (they do ask extra questions, eg who did you vote for in the last GE).

I’m voting Green again. I don’t agree with parts of their manifesto, but I’d love the Greens to have of 5 to 7 MP’s. FPTP at its cruelest. But on the other side of the coin, Reform’s 16% translates under PR into 104 MP’s …. we’d have our own Le Pen-esque rump. There again, 43% giving this seems so wrong, how will key parliamentary committees reflect the 57%?

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Why does it matter though? I guess one argument is that they might not understand local issues? But talking and listening to people will surely remedy this? What is your concern?

PS Lucas is a superb MP, I imagine it will be difficult for anyone to follow her.

Was.

There are currently no MPs

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Green for me. Brighton needs an independent voice not another yes man for Labour. Sian is an experienced campaigner and a good candidate she will be a great MP. The contest will be tight though, Caroline had a big personal vote and the Labour Party has done its best to undermine the Greens locally over the last few years.

Not hard when the Greens showed they couldn't run a bath, let alone a Council.

 

[Weststander]

 

[BevBHA]

View attachment 184898

Talk about saying things to try and boost your public image. I assume he refuses to board a plane when his Southampton team fly to Manchester and gets the train instead.