[Other Sport] F1 2024

[A1X]

5. These rumours have now been refined - while Liberty "might" have been involved, the driving force is claimed to be Perez's main sponsor Carlos Slim. Perez is retained to ensure "sponsor and team stability". Rumours suggest Slim convinced Red Bull that there would be security risks at the Mexican GP if Perez was dropped. Liberty, on the other hand, are claimed to be worried about ticket sales and merchandise revenue.

Wait, what? So they're retaining a driver to avoid riots at a future race?

That seems like a sub-optimal way to run a sport.

 

[Flounce]

Wait, what? So they're retaining a driver to avoid riots at a future race?

That seems like a sub-optimal way to run a sport.

On the other hand how many top drivers are going to agree to join a team where they are not allowed to win a race unless the no 1 driver isn’t in a position where you have to move over, even if he is a country mile clear in the Championship? The car is set up for Max, end of so bin any ambitions if you join Red Bull. The best you can hope for is coming second to the no 1 driver and it looks like the dominance is over.

 

[Guinness Boy]

On the other hand how many top drivers are going to agree to join a team where they are not allowed to win a race unless the no 1 driver isn’t in a position where you have to move over, even if he is a country mile clear in the Championship? The car is set up for Max, end of so bin any ambitions if you join Red Bull. The best you can hope for is coming second to the no 1 driver and it looks like the dominance is over.

It depends where you're coming from. Danny Ric isn't going to win anything where he is now so might as well get involved in a constructor's championship. On the other hand Norris, Sainz, Piastri, Russell, Leclerc and Hamilton won't be anywhere near RB for exactly the reason you describe.

The no 2 at RB is always going to be a compromise driver.

 

[AstroSloth]

More details (rumours) starting to emerge on how this all played out. One to put very much in the "unsubstantiated" bucket for now, but it's now coming from multiple sources and detail is being filled in gradually. So, in summary, the current rumour mill suggests the following sequence of events:

1. Verstappen family was informed post-race on Sunday that Max would have a new team mate for the Dutch GP after the summer break.

2. By Monday evening, it had all changed and Perez was instead retained. Worth noting that the wording Horner used when announcing this to the team (leaked out, not officially released) leaves Red Bull with a lot of wriggle room for revisiting the decision and very tellingly *did not* confirm Perez for 2025. Wording was also highly suggestive that his form in Baku and Singapore could be key to his future, with Horner specifically mentioned wanting to see Perez perform at "circuits where he has done well before."

3. Marko confirmed the news in interviews Tuesday/Wednesday, but explicitly mentioned "reshuffling the cards" for 2025. Widely taken as a very big hint that Perez is still under significant pressure to retain his seat.

4. Rumours began emerging that Red Bull's decision to retain Perez was influenced by Liberty, who were worried about potential issues with/at the Mexican GP if Perez was dropped.

5. These rumours have now been refined - while Liberty "might" have been involved, the driving force is claimed to be Perez's main sponsor Carlos Slim. Perez is retained to ensure "sponsor and team stability". Rumours suggest Slim convinced Red Bull that there would be security risks at the Mexican GP if Perez was dropped. Liberty, on the other hand, are claimed to be worried about ticket sales and merchandise revenue.

6. Clarity on what the plan was on Sunday has also emerged: Ricciardo would have stepped up to RBR, with Liam Lawson taking his seat at VCARB.



So ... my prediction, if Perez continues to struggle / underperform he may be removed after the Mexican GP once that potential risk is behind. At that point there would be 4 races remaining ... potentially enough time to assess Ricciardo and Lawson ahead of making 2025 driver decisions.

To add onto this, there's also the Sergio Perez documentary which is on Disney Plus. Disney apparently applied pressure onto Liberty media who then applied pressure onto Red Bull.

Again, unsubstantiated but makes some sense.

 

[A1X]

On the other hand how many top drivers are going to agree to join a team where they are not allowed to win a race unless the no 1 driver isn’t in a position where you have to move over, even if he is a country mile clear in the Championship? The car is set up for Max, end of so bin any ambitions if you join Red Bull. The best you can hope for is coming second to the no 1 driver and it looks like the dominance is over.

Oh don't get me wrong, Perez has been dealt a bad hand at Red Bull while also failing to do what he should be doing in his position (being at the sharp end of the field and helping Verstappen against the other drivers and teams), in the way Bottas did for Mercedes despite being by some distance the second best driver in that team.

It was more a case that he's being retained not for any sporting reason but because "the Mexicans are going to riot at their grand prix". Dafuq? If Mercedes dropped George Russell, I wouldn't expect to see the crowd at Silverstone turn into a pitchfork-wielding mob. Red Bull sound almost like they've got themselves in with a cartel who are now going "nice circuit you have there, be a shame if anything were to happen to it..." to both them and F1 in general.

 

[Flounce]

Oh don't get me wrong, Perez has been dealt a bad hand at Red Bull while also failing to do what he should be doing in his position (being at the sharp end of the field and helping Verstappen against the other drivers and teams), in the way Bottas did for Mercedes despite being by some distance the second best driver in that team.

It was more a case that he's being retained not for any sporting reason but because "the Mexicans are going to riot at their grand prix". Dafuq? If Mercedes dropped George Russell, I wouldn't expect to see the crowd at Silverstone turn into a pitchfork-wielding mob. Red Bull sound almost like they've got themselves in with a cartel who are now going "nice circuit you have there, be a shame if anything were to happen to it..." to both them and F1 in general.

If Mercedes had dropped Lewis (rather than him quitting) I would have been leading the pitch forkers at Silverstone

Being serious, I am shocked that Perez has not been dropped given how ruthless Red Bull were with Albon and Pierre Gasly

 

[Audax]

It depends where you're coming from. Danny Ric isn't going to win anything where he is now so might as well get involved in a constructor's championship. On the other hand Norris, Sainz, Piastri, Russell, Leclerc and Hamilton won't be anywhere near RB for exactly the reason you describe.

The no 2 at RB is always going to be a compromise driver.

Worth mentioning from a Ricciardo viewpoint: it's well known that he "likes" a car with similar characteristics to what Verstappen likes. It's entirely possible that Ricciardo back at RBR proves to be the closest to Max (let's face it, even as a long-time Ricciardo fan I have to admit that Max is the quicker driver) of anyone that's been tried since Ricciardo left. For DR, it's potentially an opportunity to enjoy his final years in Formula 1, recover his reputation somewhat, and maybe win another race or two. I think he knows that the ever winning the WDC is gone for him and he's happy to accept that. Of course ... if he does get back into RBR for 2025, and does "well enough" against Max, he could find himself as the lead RBR driver for 2026 (I just have this niggly feeling that Max will jump to Mercedes for 2026).

 

[Audax]

In other news, Red Bull stole Audi's thunder this afternoon by announcing that Jonathan Wheatley is leaving RBR to join Audi. After a bit of delay, Audi have now confirmed the news and provided some missing detail - Wheatley will become joint Team Principal alongside Mattia Binotto, who was announced recently to replace Andrea Seidl.

 

[Audax]

2025 drivers line up update:

Red Bull
1. Verstappen
2. Perez (signed for 25 and 26 ... but at risk of being cut loose with either Ricciardo or Lawson slotting in)

Ferrari
1. Leclerc
2. Hamilton

McLaren
1. Norris
2. Piastri

Mercedes
1. Russell
2. Antonelli (widely assumed the only hold up in this being announced is Toto is still hoping to lure Verstappen)

Aston Martin
1. Alonso
2. Stroll

VCARB
1. Tsunoda
2. Ricciardo OR Lawson OR Hadjar (Ricciardo's improving form may see him keep the seat ... or be promoted to RBR in place of Perez, in which case Lawson slots in here. The less likely option is that both Perez and Ricciardo get dropped, Lawson goes to RBR and Hadjar to VCARB)

Sauber / Audi
1. Hulkenberg (multi year contract)
2. Bottas / Bortoleto / could be anyone really (Audi are running out of options. Latest rumour is they might pluck McLaren junior Bortoleto out of Formula 2, where he is currently 2nd in the standings)

Williams
1. Albon
2. Sainz

Haas
1. Ocon
2. Bearman

Alpine
1. Gasly
2. Doohan (rumour mill here is now claiming it's been signed, but not yet officially announced)

 

[Audax]

Wait, what? So they're retaining a driver to avoid riots at a future race?

That seems like a sub-optimal way to run a sport.

These rumours are now being rubbished. Latest is that Red Bull just weren't convinced enough that Ricciardo's form is good enough consistently enough to replace Perez. Effectively decision has been deferred - If Perez continues to stink, and Ricciardo's form improvement over the last 6 races continues, we could see the change happen later in the year or for 2025.

 

[Audax]

Just like Formula 1, I've been off enjoying holidays. And just like Formula 1, I'm back to work this week.

Just a few things I wanted to note as we kick off the week leading up to the Dutch GP, and if I can find time between catching up on work stuff I might fill a couple of these out a little:

1. Rumours suggest Newey's most likely next destination is now Aston Martin, and that the expected Ferrari deal mooted earlier this year is now dead.

2. Is Alonso going to trigger another silly season meltdown? Some talk he might be interested in a move to Audi / Sauber...

3. Or could we see a sensational return of Vettel at Audi?

4. The Andretti situation took a potential turn for the worse for FOM / Liberty, with the US Department of Justice launching an official investigation into whether their refusal to admit Andretti is a breach of the US Sherman Act (which relates to anti-trust).

5. No movement on filling the second seat at Alpine over the break, despite a flurry of rumours immediately after the Spa race suggesting Doohan was a done-deal.

 

[Audax]

Rumours: Antonelli to be announced as a Mercedes driver for 2025 at Monza (his home race).

 

[Audax]

... I forgot to post the biggest rumour I picked up during the break.

So ... the FIA recently issued a rules clarification / update, which relates to how the brakes are used / controlled. It is believed this change was initially communicated ahead of the Miami race, and that it relates to something Red Bull were doing with their rear brakes - specifically, it is thought that red Bull had a device that would cause the rear brakes to be applied asymmetrically when applied while cornering.

I've seen two separate theories on how this would improve performance:

1. by increasing brake pressure on the inside rear wheel slightly, they could induce the car to rotate more into the corner and improve cornering speeds.

2. by increasing brake pressure on the outside rear wheel slightly, they could improve braking performance through applying more braking force to the "loaded" tyre and less to the "unloaded" tyre on the inside (thus reduced the chances of the inside tyre locking).

The first theory has been the most common one, and makes most sense to me. Especially considering Newey has history with exactly that concept (McLaren way back had a split brake pedal that allowed the drivers to apply variable pressure to help turn the car. The FIA banned that as well).

Rumours further suggest that the existence of such a system would explain the brake failure that Verstappen had in Melbourne. It is also suggested that removing the system coincides with Verstappen starting to complain that the car won't turn in the way he wants, as well as Perez' slump in form.

 

[Audax]

Ha! And just like that, today there's an article debunking the Red Bull asymmetric braking rumours:

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/what-was-really-behind-the-fias-f1-asymmetric-brake-rule-change/10645992/

 

[Audax]

Jack Doohan confirmed at Alpine for 2025, alongside Gasly. Really excited about this one - I have a lot of good memories of watching his dad dominate 500cc motorcycle racing (despite an absolutely hideous leg injury sustained in a massive accident early in his career). He's not quite a Piastri IMO, but his performances in F2 were very strong (robbed of a potential title by a broken car last season) and he should be good enough to secure himself a long term future in Formula 1.

2. Is Alonso going to trigger another silly season meltdown? Some talk he might be interested in a move to Audi / Sauber...

Answer: No. Turns out that particular rumour was a complete mis-read. Alonso has now confirmed he has had talks with Audi ... but in his capacity as Bortoleto's manager. Bortoleto is currently a McLaren junior doing well in F2.


Edit (10:50): I'm going to keep editing anything new into this post until there's a new reply from someone else to save on spamming the thread.

Williams have switched from a 2023 Red Bull-style sidepod inlet to a 2024 Red Bull-style inlet.

At Red Bull, they are rolling back to some older parts having determined that upgrades made before the summer break weren't working.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Surprised no bounce of this for yesterday’s race. Quite a boring race up front maybe but five wide on the banking at one point at the back.

And it’s now gone from “hooray, Max didn’t win” to “Max didn’t win again”.

Probably got enough podiums in him to win the driver’s championship but constructers is very up for grabs.

Are Red Bull falling apart like the football team they now sponsor?

 

[Dr Q]

Really don't like that Scaletrix track, but it produced some interesting racing, with some interesting overtaking. Good result, and its making teh championship way more interesting than the first few races indicated. I think Max will scrape the drivers champ (Hungary could haunt McLaren), but McLaren will get the constructors.

I do wonder once Max retires we'll see a rather quick exit of all those Dutch fans and possibly the track on the calendar??

 

[Guinness Boy]

Colapinto replaces Sargeant at Williams.

 

[zefarelly]

Really don't like that Scaletrix track, but it produced some interesting racing, with some interesting overtaking. Good result, and its making teh championship way more interesting than the first few races indicated. I think Max will scrape the drivers champ (Hungary could haunt McLaren), but McLaren will get the constructors.

I do wonder once Max retires we'll see a rather quick exit of all those Dutch fans and possibly the track on the calendar??

The Dutch like the Belgian drivers don't they.

 

[Audax]

Now I've finally had time to watch the C4 highlights:

Really well run race from Norris. McLaren need to figure out what's going wrong with their starts, but beyond that it was a perfect day out. Managed the first stint really well, and dominated the second stint. Piastri disappointing to get stuck behind first Russell, and then Leclerc. Suspect he had the underlying pace to worry Verstappen otherwise.

As it stands, I think McLaren are going to find themselves leading the WCC within a few races. Red Bull will be very worried about the Zandvoort result. Zandvoort is the kind of circuit that Red Bull have dominated at, and yet they were absolutely shown a clean pair of heels by Norris. Does not bode well for them at the majority of the remaining races. Max has a 70 point buffer with 9 races to run. That *should* be enough for him to defend against a Norris surge, but Norris only needs 7.9 points per race average to cut that down. Zandvoort was 8 points.

So there's your maths: if Norris wins all 9 races, and takes fastest lap in all those races, he wins the WDC. Highly unlikely, but it does show that the 70 point advantage Max has isn't as big as it looks. A DNF or some races where Piastri can get ahead of him as well and we could be seeing a WDC showdown to end the season.


Edit: Colapinto in for Sargeant. Wow. Don't think anyone saw that coming. That's not an upgrade. Prior to Zandvoort there was a strong rumour emerge that Lawson might be loaned from Red Bull. That was apparently scuppered because Red Bull wanted to be able to recall him if needed (that suggests Perez's position remains insecure). That was followed by rumours Mick Schumacher was in the frame. And then *bang* ... Colapinto. Don't expect anything special from him. Currently 6th in F2, with 1 win and a couple of 2nds. Might be an improvement vs Sargeant, but won't trouble Albon.