[Other Sport] F1 2024

[Audax]

Have there been any rule changes or car modifications introduced to make this year's racing interesting? Year on year, changes are made that don't work so surely they need to do something because F1 fan figures can only be declining.
I can't imagine anyone becoming interested in F1 for more than a couple of years before noticing how processional it is and switching their attention to something more exciting like............well, pretty much anything.
The sights and sounds are lovely but I want to be gripped so I have to stay awake. As it is, I watch until I fall asleep.

Nothing major for next year, the rules remain relatively stable. The next big shift in rules is for 2026.

In terms of numbers: through the end of 2021 the TV viewer numbers were on a constant increasing trend. They've dipped slightly for 2022 (and probably 2023), but it is only slightly. But TV numbers aren't the only numbers that matter: attendance at races is up, and still going up. Social media presence of F1 is still growing (and rapidly, although the rapidity is largely driven off the back of Bernie Ecclestone completely ignoring social media, so Liberty are playing catch up still). And probably the most important metrics of all: there are still plenty of new venues wanting to join (which means F1 can demand huge fees), and the value of a Formula 1 team has skyrocketed. The single biggest objection to Andretti joining to grid from other teams (though few will admit it) is because they believe allowing a new team in will dilute the value of the existing teams. The lost prize money if they get beaten by Andretti is small fry compared to what they can get if they sell a team.

Even Williams is now worth massive money. Event though the owner (Dorilton, an investment company) is still having to pump money into the team as it isn't self-sufficient from sponsorship/prize money yet, they're sitting on the investment because they bought the team at a point in time before the big Formula 1 boom and the money they're putting in to sustain the team is peanuts compared to the increased value of the team (which is forecast to continue going up).

 

[Audax]

Formula 1 (FOM) heading for a court case appointment with Andretti? They've announced today that they have rejected Andretti's application:

F1 formally rejects Andretti bid in emphatic statement

Michael Andretti's bid to enter a team in Formula 1 had FIA approval - but will not get the blessing from the championship itself

www.the-race.com

A chunk of the rejection justification is an assumption by FOM that Andretti could not possibly be "competitive" enough in 2025 & 2026 to add value to the championship. Given Andretti already has a 60% scale model car undergoing wind tunnel testing, I wouldn't be surprised if Andretti disputes that assumption strongly. Part of FOM's reasoning is that with the massive rules change for 2026, Andretti couldn't possibly design and build a car for 2025 *and* then also design and build a car for 2026. But I think FOM have forgotten that they have put rules in place that prohibits any team from starting 2026 car development until 2025. So Andretti has all of 2024 to design and build for 2025 (same as existing teams, but they don't need to put any effort into a 2024 car), and can then switch focus to 2026 in exactly the same way and at exactly the same time as the existing teams.

FOM left the door open for a 2028 entry (this is the year that Cadillac have said they would have their own PU ready for Andretti to use).

I expect Andretti will challenge this decision, especially as FOM have openly accused them of "ignoring" an invitation to present their proposal in person. Given that invitation was sent in the run-up to Christmas, I wouldn't be surprised if the reality is not as clear cut as the FOM wants us to believe.

 

[Audax]

Lots of new F1 discussion points in the last 24 hours...

Andretti 2025 entry bid rejected by FOM

As per my previous post, above. Since then Andretti has responded with a short statement making it clear that they disagree with the FOM's assessment and will be carrying on with their development process. So this isn't over - I suspect in the coming weeks we'll be hearing of moves towards a legal challenge of the decision (which will be based in EU law designed to block anti-competitive practices. EU have previously taken an interest in F1 and forced the FIA to divest itself of the commercial running of F1, hence the current FIA / FOM setup).

FIA have also issued a brief statement this morning, taking note of the FOM decision and indicating they are considering next steps.

Hamilton to Ferrari 2025?

Over night the rumour mill has exploded into action with plenty of talk doing the rounds that Ferrari are close to obtaining Hamilton's signature for 2025:

Lewis Hamilton will make shock move from Mercedes to Ferrari

Lewis Hamilton will make a shock move from Mercedes to Ferrari for the 2025 season, BBC Sport understands.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Frutos]

Mercedes' Hamilton on verge of shock Ferrari move - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68163799

Some breaking Deadline Day news at least.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

Would Hamilton to Ferrari be a bit of end of career box ticking(i.e if he's going to drive for a team with no rel chance of the title then he may as well have a season or two at the most storied team) or a serious attempt to win the world title with a third different team(has anyone ever won the title at three teams?)?

 

[The Colonel]

If it's true (and it sounds like it is) then it possibly suggests Hamilton doesnt like what he sees of the 2024 Mercedes. That has to be bad news for everybody who wants a title fight this year.

 

[Marshy]

If it's true (and it sounds like it is) then it possibly suggests Hamilton doesnt like what he sees of the 2024 Mercedes. That has to be bad news for everybody who wants a title fight this year.

Maybe... every driver wants to drive at Ferrari though dont they.... ? so it could well be a long standing ambition

 

[The Colonel]

Maybe... every driver wants to drive at Ferrari though dont they.... ? so it could well be a long standing ambition

You could be right, it could be that, but I just can't see Hamilton leaving Mercedes for any other team if he was looking at the new car and thinking they're about to hit the front again.

 

[kojak]

he has to win a race though otherwise it'll all be for nothing.
Mansell won his 1st race in a Ferrari
an unexpected win in Rio
the tifosi don't forget things like that
Il Leone

 

[Audax]

There's a rumour via Italian press that there's a possibility that the move could happen *this year*.

 

[A1X]

If I was Lando Norris hearing this news I’d be furious that I’d just signed for three years at McLaren just as a Mercedes seat comes up

 

[Guinness Boy]

If it's true (and it sounds like it is) then it possibly suggests Hamilton doesnt like what he sees of the 2024 Mercedes. That has to be bad news for everybody who wants a title fight this year.

Yep, my first thought was 'boy, the 2024 Merc must really suck'.

Fingers crossed for MacLaren getting a full season out of theirs now.

 

[The Colonel]

There's a rumour via Italian press that there's a possibility that the move could happen *this year*.

Please make this happen. I don't want a year of watching Lewis scrapping in the midfield in a team he knows he's leaving. Get him in that red car now and use this year to build for a title fight in 2025.

Surely Mercedes wouldn't want a driver they know is leaving in the car either. Maybe I'm oversimplifiying it, but couldn't they just take Sainz on a one year deal to replace the year he has left at Ferrari?

 

[dolphins]

If it's true (and it sounds like it is) then it possibly suggests Hamilton doesnt like what he sees of the 2024 Mercedes. That has to be bad news for everybody who wants a title fight this year.

Could it be a falling out/clash of personalities within the team? Have there been any change of personnel I wonder?

 

[drew]

Could it be a falling out/clash of personalities within the team? Have there been any change of personnel I wonder?

Probably more like as The Colonel says re the car. Hamilton is within a hairs breath of having the overall most championships but he hasn't looked close to doing that in the Mercedes in the last few years (having been robbed by Michael Masi at Abu Dhabi). Time isn't on his side as he is now 39.

 

[Audax]

Lots of new F1 discussion points in the last 24 hours...

Andretti 2025 entry bid rejected by FOM

As per my previous post, above. Since then Andretti has responded with a short statement making it clear that they disagree with the FOM's assessment and will be carrying on with their development process. So this isn't over - I suspect in the coming weeks we'll be hearing of moves towards a legal challenge of the decision (which will be based in EU law designed to block anti-competitive practices. EU have previously taken an interest in F1 and forced the FIA to divest itself of the commercial running of F1, hence the current FIA / FOM setup).

FIA have also issued a brief statement this morning, taking note of the FOM decision and indicating they are considering next steps.

Hamilton to Ferrari 2025?

Over night the rumour mill has exploded into action with plenty of talk doing the rounds that Ferrari are close to obtaining Hamilton's signature for 2025:

Lewis Hamilton will make shock move from Mercedes to Ferrari

Lewis Hamilton will make a shock move from Mercedes to Ferrari for the 2025 season, BBC Sport understands.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's interesting how this all played out. FOM clearly knew the Hamilton news was going to break. The first signs that something "big" was coming was leaked by Will Buxton, who is one of FOM's tame journos (he's employed by F1TV). While he was non-specific, his bait-tweet came out while the rest of the F1 journos were beginning to sink their teeth into some good-old FOM bashing over the Andretti announcement. Sentiment across the board was heading south, rapidly, and articles with anti-FOM sentiment re: Andretti were proliferating.

Sure enough, the next morning the news leaked and took centre-stage, immediately killing off the Andretti discussion. My assumption is that FOM knew it was coming (maybe not the specific timing, but knew it would be this week) and they deliberately timed the release of the "no to Andretti" announcement so that it would get buried by the Hamilton news once it surfaced. They may even have been the source of the initial, more specific, leaks yesterday morning that got the rumour mill fired up.

Basically, Hamilton was used as a "dead cat" to kill off the Andretti discussion. Of course ... all they've done is kick the can down the road. I think it's inevitable that Andretti are already talking to lawyers and the likelihood is that it won't be long before we get a much longer, more detailed, announcement from the Andretti side detailing their rejection of FOMs rejection and inviting FOM to reconsider or face a legal fight in the EU courts.

 

[Audax]

Haas 2024 livery (and car, based on what I'm seeing) has been revealed:

 

[Audax]

New statement from Andretti. This could get spicy. They've specifically responded to 2 of FOMs excuses for not accepting their application. One is a "how does this happen in the 2020s still?" thing, the other undermines completely the #1 justification FOM put forward.

So in the realms of WTF?! it turns out Andretti never saw the email FOM sent in mid Dec inviting them to a face to face meeting to discuss the application. Andretti have said the email got captured by their spam filter. Unofficially, it's been leaked that FOM sent the email from a junior staffers account and never followed up. Meanwhile, Andretti has previously mentioned last year that FOM CEO Domenicali has been ignoring his calls and texts.

The other element Andretti have addressed is FOMs claim that Andretti could not expect to be competitive due to their plan to build and enter a 2025 car and then also develop an all new car for the big 2026 regs change. Andretti have now stated they've been aiming for 2026 for some months now, due to the FIA and FOM processes taking so long that 2025 was no longer feasible. The FIA acceptance of the team entry was for either 2025 or 2026, Andretti now saying the only reason 2025 is in their application today is because its taken a year to get to this point.

Story not over, by a long shot. Personally think FOM made a mistake going public with a detailed rejection before giving it to Andretti. Andretti will now respond by systematically deconstructing that rejection in public as well.

 

[Flounce]

There's a rumour via Italian press that there's a possibility that the move could happen *this year*.

That would be great imo, especially if the Merc is as much of a dog as it’s been for most of the last couple of years. Ferrari at least threatened to challenge on occasions last year. Hamilton was very downbeat most of last season, a change might invigorate him and make things interesting for Lewis fans.

 

[ElectricNaz]

I'm liking Hamilton to Ferrari.

Ferrari are outright fast.

Yes tactically inept but fast. Gives Hamilton a better chance of wins. Also he's significantly less likely to bin in into a wall than LeClerc.