[Misc] Economic Effect of No Smokers

[Trevor]

Hello top team,
I was wondering where to go with this one. I approve of the recent policy relating to further restrictions of sales of nicoine based upon age - I feel that this will have a positive effect on public health in the long-term. But my question is this. What would the effect be on the UK economy if there were no smokers. I went googling something similar and found some data published by ASH but it clearly missed plenty of the relevant factors. The things that I thought of quickly (but it will be more)

Loss of Tax Revenue
Loss of GDP contribution from sales
NHS Care cost? Is the lifetime cost of NHS care more for a smoker and if so by how much? I know cancer drugs are often very expensive
Greater average earnings due to longer and more effective working lives?
Effect of greater life expentancy. More paid out in pensions etc in retirement years but greater
Effect on GDP of more socially active people?
Others?

I'm not really after people's views about the recently announced policy. Just whether this subject has been covered and where

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Pension retirement age will go back and back as people live longer

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Presumably, the money that people currently spend on cigarettes will be spent on something, it's not like smokers will just chuck £10 notes into a canal instead.

 

[Trevor]

Pension retirement age will go back and back as people live longer

Correct - but on the other hand smoking reduces fertility. pension age (arguably) goes up when there is a higher percenage of the population retired

 

[Anger]

Presumably, the money that people currently spend on cigarettes will be spent on something, it's not like smokers will just chuck £10 notes into a canal instead.

Don’t oppress them.

If they want to chuck £10 notes into a canal it is their inalienable right to do so.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Presumably, the money that people currently spend on cigarettes will be spent on something, it's not like smokers will just chuck £10 notes into a canal instead.

Probably black market cigs that are not taxed.

 

[Trevor]

Probably black market cigs that are not taxed.

yeah, mine is a theoretical question about if there were no smokers

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Probably black market cigs that are not taxed.

A fair point that occurred to me as soon as I pressed send.
But given the aim is to reduce how many smokers there are in the first place (something we've had some success in doing already so it's not a nonsensical idea) I think a decent portion of the money would just go elsewhere in the legitimate economy even if it goes via vaping instead of cigarettes.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Public health should win the day over any pro-smoking economic arguments. Ditto over any pro-car economic arguments. Both sets of lobbyists make a strong case. Doesn't make either case right tho

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Don’t oppress them.

If they want to chuck £10 notes into a canal it is their inalienable right to do so.

I'm still angry about The Man trying to oppress my crippling smack addiction.

 

[Insel affe]

Hello top team,
I was wondering where to go with this one. I approve of the recent policy relating to further restrictions of sales of nicoine based upon age - I feel that this will have a positive effect on public health in the long-term. But my question is this. What would the effect be on the UK economy if there were no smokers. I went googling something similar and found some data published by ASH but it clearly missed plenty of the relevant factors. The things that I thought of quickly (but it will be more)

Loss of Tax Revenue
Loss of GDP contribution from sales
NHS Care cost? Is the lifetime cost of NHS care more for a smoker and if so by how much? I know cancer drugs are often very expensive
Greater average earnings due to longer and more effective working lives?
Effect of greater life expentancy. More paid out in pensions etc in retirement years but greater
Effect on GDP of more socially active people?
Others?

I'm not really after people's views about the recently announced policy. Just whether this subject has been covered and where

hmmm...

It is almost as if you want folks to.....

 

[Trevor]

Public health should win the day over any pro-smoking economic arguments. Ditto over any pro-car economic arguments. Both sets of lobbyists put forward a strong case. Doesn't make either case right tho

Yes, I think I mentioned my view on this which is not based upon economics so i agree with you. I would still like to know the answer though

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

£ 18 for a pack of 20 but people can get a triple macdonalds burger for £ 2.99

 

[Weststander]

Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

 

[Trevor]

Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

and indeed Kevins

 

[dazzer6666]

Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

Volume of office gossip will reduce faster than the tax take

 

[beorhthelm]

Public health should win the day over any pro-smoking economic arguments. Ditto over any pro-car economic arguments. Both sets of lobbyists make a strong case. Doesn't make either case right tho

public health always wins over all other considerations? i hope not, there should always be some informed balance, acceptance of some risk and impact weighed against benefits to quality of life.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

In the short term. In the long term the ex-smokers won't be able to work as they will be so fat from all the extra chocolate and takeaways they now desire.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

I'm not a smoker but against the ban but then I would also legalise and tax most drugs for recreational use.

 

[keaton]

£ 18 for a pack of 20 but people can get a triple macdonalds burger for £ 2.99

Not entirely sure of your point, but food is requirement, a cigarette isn't