[Politics] Do you believe we are going to leave the EU on October 31st

[Pavilionaire]

My feeling is that we will leave, and with a deal. Boris will head back to Brussels and come back with some very minor changes to the current agreement, amounting to nothing more than semantics - but it will be dressed up as a big change, the backstop still there but renamed. Boris will thus come back as the hero standing up for British interests and the whole tories plus a few Labour will get the deal through, there might need to be a few giveaways to certain individuals to win their vote but this deal will pass.

Boris and Rees-Mogg have already voted for this deal once, don't forget. JRM will be in a Boris cabinet, and maybe Baker too. For the ERG its really about the look of the thing after all. DUP probably won't play ball but won't be needed.

The alternative for Boris is pushing the no deal line which is doomed to failure because Hammond will lead enough tories into seriously opposing it, and maybe even push them to the brink of vote of no confidence and election. A Hammond free from cabinet responsibility will be a thorn in Boris' side if Johnson goes away from his moderate roots and wants to be radical.

No, Boris will want this done, and done simply, so he can enjoy all the trappings of being PM without the hassle of having to deal with either eternal brexit or the serious work of rebuilding our economy after a no deal crash out.

May's deal will pass, and go down in the books as Boris' deal

I don't know what part people don't understand when the EU say they won't renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.

IT AIN'T GONNA CHANGE.

The EU Project is far bigger to the 27 than any short-term, minor disruption caused by Britain flouncing out. Right wing politicians are living in denial. We will not be able to call their bluff. The best Boris could have hoped for is that the EU give us a short period of grace so we can get some sort of procedures and infrastructure in place, but that would have been dependant upon us paying the £39billion divorce bill. That won't happen under Boris either. We will be completely ****ed under all 6 of the remaining candidates, although there may be a semblance of organisation under Hunt or Stewart.

 

[Mellotron]

Absolutely no chance whatsoever, with no PM in place and a general election still likely to come.

IMO it's a bit naive to think we're going in October. Juncker also anticipates a further extension, this time to the end of 2020 - nearly FOUR years after the vote. By then the clamour for a further referendum will be deafening, and justified.

 

[Hungry Joe]

We will if Corbyn forgets his communist roots and goes with what the nations voters want and tells his MPs to do the same.

You're aware that Corbyn is pro-(soft) Brexit aren't you? His Socialist (not Communist) roots are exactly why he is personally in favour of either leaving the EU or trying to get it significantly reformed.

 

[GT49er]

We will if Corbyn forgets his communist roots and goes with what the nations voters want and tells his MPs to do the same.

That's assuming Corbyn has any influence whatsoever over his MPs - and that is cloud cuckoo land.

 

[Seasider78]

Absolutely no chance whatsoever, with no PM in place and a general election still likely to come.

IMO it's a bit naive to think we're going in October. Juncker also anticipates a further extension, this time to the end of 2020 - nearly FOUR years after the vote. By then the clamour for a further referendum will be deafening, and justified.

Agree entirely and a general election will see another divided result as cannot see Labour campaigning on a remain or leave ticket as their voters are too split. Lib Dem’s would make up ground and we will end up with a government with an even weaker majority than we do now. Hard to see any coalition either with so much division between the parties.

Nope at least another 3 years of this cluster**** to come before everyone is so bored of it the status quo is maintained.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Boris wins

Pushes for take May deal (plus a couple of tiny concessions having been back to Brussels for the EU to laugh at us)

No deal

Crash out 31 Oct

 

[Cheshire Cat]

No deal
No idea

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Absolutely no chance whatsoever, with no PM in place and a general election still likely to come.

IMO it's a bit naive to think we're going in October. Juncker also anticipates a further extension, this time to the end of 2020 - nearly FOUR years after the vote. By then the clamour for a further referendum will be deafening, and justified.

Surely if there's a GE they'll be no need for a referendum, each party will set out it's stall on what they propose and then the country votes, it's a solution that won't suit people but will be necessary given the need for a GE.

 

[GT49er]

Nope at least another 3 years of this cluster**** to come before everyone is so bored of it the status quo is maintained.

Which is exactly what the Westminster/Whitehall establishment have been trying to do since the day their cosy world was severely ruffled by the referendum result.

 

[mac04]

Under WTO Most Preferred Nation (MPN) rules that we would be operating however, that means that we have also granted the Whole World free access to all Goods, Services and People in all British markets

Would that mean Percy Tau could play for us in November?

 

[A1X]

Absolutely no chance whatsoever, with no PM in place and a general election still likely to come.

IMO it's a bit naive to think we're going in October. Juncker also anticipates a further extension, this time to the end of 2020 - nearly FOUR years after the vote. By then the clamour for a further referendum will be deafening, and justified.

The EU want us out, if indeed we are going, by the end of 2020 as that tallies nicely with the next EU budget period (running 2021 to 2027), and obviously the maths is a lot easier if Britain isn't still sat whinging in a corner about how it's so unfair that it has to abide by it's international treaty obligations. Anything up to that point is basically decided by our begging and their patience.

 

[pb21]

The Tory party know they will face electoral oblivion if they don't 'deliver Brexit' by 31st October.

On this basis they will bodge something together in time so that they can say they have delivered Brexit.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

The Tory party know they will face electoral oblivion if they don't 'deliver Brexit' by 31st October.

On this basis they will bodge something together in time so that they can say they have delivered Brexit.

I think that's about right.

 

[Mellotron]

Surely if there's a GE they'll be no need for a referendum, each party will set out it's stall on what they propose and then the country votes, it's a solution that won't suit people but will be necessary given the need for a GE.

We will need an extension no matter what - there isn't time for a new PM to make any maneuvers whatsoever before October, votes have to go back to Parliament, amendments drawn up etc etc. There isn't time.

The next extension will likely be to the end of 2020. The length of that extension would be the reason for a further referendum, as the idea that a vote is still valid 4 years on is stretching credibility massively, and a further referendum will be seen as far more palatable, as we move through 2019/2020.

Don't you think Labour and Tories official positions will be a bit of a fudge, yet again? There's no way they can please their members and stand on a clear and specific platform, in my opinion. Lib Dems and Brexit will stand on clear platforms and continue to make gains.

I also don't think a GE will negate the need for a 2nd ref as it looks very likely to be a hung parliament yet again.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

We will need an extension no matter what - there isn't time for a new PM to make any maneuvers whatsoever before October, votes have to go back to Parliament, amendments drawn up etc etc. There isn't time.

The next extension will likely be to the end of 2020. The length of that extension would be the reason for a further referendum, as the idea that a vote is still valid 4 years on is stretching credibility massively, and a further referendum will be seen as far more palatable, as we move through 2019/2020.

Don't you think Labour and Tories official positions will be a bit of a fudge, yet again? There's no way they can please their members and stand on a clear and specific platform, in my opinion. Lib Dems and Brexit will stand on clear platforms and continue to make gains.

I think the electorate understand sufficient now to make a simple choice, in or out, based on what's on the table at that time. The problem is, and this is why we need PR, every Labour or Tory MP will need to tow the party line and we need MP's who better represent their constituents and not their party or we except that some won't always agree.

 

[A1X]

It is worth remembering that even for No Deal there is legislation that is required to pass through Parliament to enable it to happen without massive legal ramifications. As we've seen, that takes time.

 

[Mellotron]

I think the electorate understand sufficient now to make a simple choice, in or out, based on what's on the table at that time. The problem is, and this is why we need PR, every Labour or Tory MP will need to tow the party line and we need MP's who better represent their constituents and not their party or we except that some won't always agree.

In or Out? The reason we're in this mess is that it isn't as simple as in or out, that's the whole bloody point!

 

[ManOfSussex]

There are too many imponderables to consider once Johnson becomes PM to answer the poll question.

I also don't think an extension is any way guaranteed - Johnson is a highly dangerous, supremely arrogant individual capable of flaming up the diplomatic fire and making the international bad blood far worse than at present for The UK. The EU know we're not ready for a no deal situation and wont last for long should it occur.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think the electorate understand sufficient now to make a simple choice, in or out, based on what's on the table at that time. The problem is, and this is why we need PR, every Labour or Tory MP will need to tow the party line and we need MP's who better represent their constituents and not their party or we except that some won't always agree.

contradiction there: PR to toe the party line and better represent the constituency. the whole reason we have this stalemate is many remain MP are mindful of the wishes of their leave constituents, otherwise they'd have voted to revoke by now.

 

[Hamilton]

Yes I do.

I think Boris will push it through.

Either by calling a GE on a no deal mandate or pushing a new May deal through.


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