Cheltenham Festival 2008

[Billy Seagull]

The Cheltenham Festival is just 2 days away which signals a week off work for some of us

My bets of the week are:

Champion Chase - Voy Por Ustedes to keep his crown even though he's been beaten by the Mister Minded and Twist Magic this season. I feel he's a better horse round Cheltenham and will turn the form round. At the moment he's my biggest best bet of the week at 3/1.

Grand Annual - Looked through this last night and like the look of Enlightenment at 12/1 and noticed it is also engaged in the Arkle. Well, if he goes for the Arkle he'll be wasting his time as he looks very well handicapped to me and in what looks like a poor race he could be a blot on the handicap. Evan Williams knows how to get one fit and this chap has been off since December waiting for better ground.

Racing Post Plate - another short priced fav which needs to be taken on and this time its Bible Lord for me at 8/1. He had a nice win when coming back in distance last time after being tried over 3m+ which he doesn't get. He was 9th in the Hennessey despite the trip and "only" 32L behind Denman albeit in receipt of nearly 2 stone. The clincher is the form of the Turnell stable - 5 wins this week out of 11 runners.

The Arkle doesn't appear to be a good race and the fav Noland is a bit short for one who has won two egg and spoon races - his previous festival win over hurdles is the reason. Moon over Miami interests me. He has his own ideas but has ran round Cheltenham twice and won both times. I was at Newbury when he beat Big Bucks and he won well. Last time at Warwick he pulled up but he seems to run the odd strange race and then win next time. There are worse 16/1 shots to be had.

The Sun Alliance Chase also seems weak. Albertas Run is the one for me following his good win at Ascot, against the other joint fav Air Force One, who he was conceding 3lbs to. He will like the going and has won at Cheltenham.

Also like Sentry Duty and Snap Tie in the Supreme, Breedsbreeze and Trafford Lad in the Ballymore, Garde Champetre in the Cross Country, Fier Normand and Dun Doire in the William Hill and a small nibble on Osana in the Champion Hurdle. Kauto Star wins the Gold Cup too.

Plenty of good offers about from the bookies this week and have already taken Bet365 and Victor Chandler offers this week.

 

[Tooting Gull]

I've only been given two tips this year and happily they're both on the Wednesday when I'll be there. Aigle D'or in the Ballymore Hurdle, Zarooti in the bumper. Both favourites, so no massive value. I also fancy Tamarinbleu in the Champion Chase, if it runs that day and not in the Ryanair Chase instead.

 

[Mtoto]

As I opened the front door to set off for the west country this morning, the sun came out. Only briefly, mind, but surely an omen none the less.....

Not much in the ante-post book, though did get River Liane at 10-1 for the Fred Winter (before Ashkazar came onto the scene). Also used up a £25 free bet that had been hanging around for ages on Zaarito at 8-1 in the Bumper, so pretty hopeful there. And backed O'Regan for top jock at an average of 74-1 on Betfair in the hope that cheekpieces will sharpen up Tidal Bay's jumping and Inglis Drever will do the business.

Had De Valira at 80-1 for the Champion though too. He was down to 16s with Ruby booked to ride by the time he got injured on Saturday...

Others I will probably be backing include Crozan (apparently Nicky Henderson, who's an Old Etonian, gave a talk at the school a week ago and said this was his best chance of a winner all week). It's had a wind op since its last run, and was really tanking when he came down four out in the Ryanair last year. Oh, and Denman wins the Gold Cup.

 

[Billy Seagull]

Fier Normand and Dun Doire non runners - dont really fancy anything in that race now. Ashkazar must be a good thing Tomorrow the way he won on Saturday. Took 3/1 with Corals which has been knocked over now.

 

[brighton_haha]

Denman must have it wrapped up - the going's going to be soooo soft.

Champion Bumber - Cousin Vinny.
Champion Hurdle - Sizing Europe - My Personal NAP of the week.

More to follow....

 

[Peppermint Tea]

Odds starting to drift ever so slightly on Kauto Star, presumably down to the weather. I'm saving (what remains) of my money for the Gold Cup and will watch it from that rare position of impartiality...it'll be a cracker I hope.

 

[Billy Seagull]

Ashkazar is my nap Today. Ladbrokes 11/4 wont last long as the whole Racing Post team has picked him. He has got a ton in hand and should win this as he likes...this is the Cheltenham Festival though and nothing is easy there.

I've backed him in a cheeky double with Osana to bring up an opening day double for David Pipe. 5/1 and 11/4 with Ladbrokes pays just over 20/1.

Good luck.

 

[Billy Seagull]

Touch of the nearlys Today with 2 seconds but Garde Champetre saved the day.

Tomorrow I like Breedsbreeze, Albertas Run, Voy Pur Ustedes (NAP) and Zaarito.

Following on from my first post Bible Lord is looking better and better as the ground has come for him. Still 8/1 with Corals.

 

[Billy Seagull]

A good day yesterday but Mr Strachan cost me the placepot and my big bets on Voy Pur Ustedes and Bible Lord both placed without having a chance of winning.

With the rain coming I've switched to Denman in the gold cup, mainly because Ladbrokes are laying 2/1. Also worth a nibble is Denman to win by 4 lengths or more at 4/1. I get the feeling that he'll either demolish Kauto or come nowhere.

Franchoek must win a very weak looking Triumph hurdle.

 

[Mtoto]

Just finished walking the course and though it's quite wet on top, that should dry off by the afternoon and I'd be surprised if it rides any worse than good-to-soft, (and there are bits that will be closer to good if it stays dry). Cheltenham takes water like no other track.

Unlucky with Zaarito, I was on too (at 8-1) so admittedly my pocket's talking a bit, but I thought it got a pig of a ride from Russell. Slowly away, crowded early, ran up a backside and stumbled at the top of the hill, smacked a rail, and then having been tight on the inner most of the way he finished on the wide outside. Ugly.

Master Minded was amazing though. Didn't have a penny on, but have never seen a horse win the Champion Chase like that in nearly 20 years coming to the Festival, and doubt I will again unless it's that horse next year.

 

[Billy Seagull]

Yes, Zaarito received a terrible ride. He doesn't ride Cheltenham well at all.

Good luck Today.

 

[Hannibal smith]

Master Minded was amazing though. Didn't have a penny on, but have never seen a horse win the Champion Chase like that in nearly 20 years coming to the Festival, and doubt I will again unless it's that horse next year.

Master Minded winning by 18 lengths in a 2 miler means he is either brilliant or something was amiss with either the ground or the other horses. Given there were 4 horses with decent OR's I think you need to have a look at the others performance to see how good it was.

I've had a look at the replay this morning of the 4 (Tarimbleu, Twist Magic & Voy Por Estedes). I think Twist Magic didn't stay, Tarimbleu ran below form but Voy por estedes ran his race although probably didn't get his ground. Even so, I still think Master Minded must of improved by at least 10 pounds since his last run and probably more like 15. Fantastic performance and I didn't have a penny on it either. Shame there are no Moscow Flyers around to race it.