By-election test for Corbyn.

[Leekbrookgull]

Had a look in Ladbrokes earlier and if i am right (?) Labour 1/8 with Ukip at 8/1. The Oldham West and Royton seat is set for December. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...ld-hope-Ukip-wins-the-Oldham-by-election.html

 

[Pavilionaire]

They could stick a red rosette on a wardrobe and it would get elected in that seat.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Good thread
Any named candidates yet!?

 

[Leekbrookgull]

They could stick a red rosette on a wardrobe and it would get elected in that seat.

Well at 8/1 must be worth at a quid ? After all remember Simon Hughes and Bermondsey ?

 

[warmleyseagull]

Well at 8/1 must be worth at a quid ? After all remember Simon Hughes and Bermondsey ?

just had 30 notes at 6/1. UKIP shoo in.

 

[London Irish]

just had 30 notes at 6/1. UKIP shoo in.

On the day their only black candidate accuses Ukip of being racist?

We will certainly find out how much the Tory press hate Corbyn more than they hate right-wing bigotry - we know the answer to that probably but still won't be enough

 

[e77]

Nearly 15,000 majority for a recently deceased MP who by all accounts was popular locally. Corbyn will probably play well in Labour strongholds (marginals might be another story but we shall see).

Would be tempted to keep my money in my pocket.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Even Corbyn can't lose this one for Labour.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Even Corbyn can't lose this one for Labour.

Not so sure. Have had a tickle at 6/1. UKIP went from 3% of vote to 39% in Heywood and Middleton and that was when Labour had a leader who at least at that time looked almost electable.

 

[beorhthelm]

looking at the seat's last showing, Meacher considerably increased his majority, adding more than 4k more voters. so i dont think this one is going to embaress Corbyn, worse case a "close" vote within a few thousand.

 

[Machiavelli]

Not so sure. Have had a tickle at 6/1. UKIP went from 3% of vote to 39% in Heywood and Middleton and that was when Labour had a leader who at least at that time looked almost electable.

Difference is that UKIP have lost that momentum they then had, haven't exactly had a good six months, and the electorate now recognise that they have to confront UKIP's very raison d'être. We'll see.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

looking at the seat's last showing, Meacher considerably increased his majority, adding more than 4k more voters. so i dont think this one is going to embaress Corbyn, worse case a "close" vote within a few thousand.

I think your right, if UKIP thought they had a realistic chance at winning they would be making far more noise trying to build momentum.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

UKIP being heavily backed today by others and me @ 11/2.
Dec 3 polling date

 

[Mellotron]

Difference is that UKIP have lost that momentum they then had, haven't exactly had a good six months, and the electorate now recognise that they have to confront UKIP's very raison d'être. We'll see.

Being racist is bloody tiring after a while.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Even Corbyn can't lose this one for Labour.

Let,s wait and see.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Let,s wait and see.

Indeed.

2 weeks to go, and Corbyn and crew are making a real good fist of doing the improbable and losing it for labour.

 

[Hastings gull]

Why is it a test for Corbyn? He is not standing in the bi-election is he!? People would do well to look at and remember what and who they actually vote for!

I think you are being rather naïve here, with respect. People tend to vote for the party, and who leads that party is clearly a big issue. Granted, he personally is not standing, but his policies are likely to affect the way that party operates. Many an otherwise good constituency MP undeservedly loses his/her seat due to national swings come election time.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Labour still odds-on favourites to win. 2/9.

 

[warmleyseagull]

See https://betting.betfair.com/politic...ing-odds-tips-3-december-2015-181115-136.html . Good article that gets down to basics. Happy with my 6/1 punt

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Labour support at ballot box could be halved at Oldham by-election, polling suggests
Senior figures, including a shadow cabinet minister, have expressed alarm at the prospects for Labour in the upcoming by-election "Jeremy on the doorstep is terrible, they say to me he is worse than Ed"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...d-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html