[Politics] By election result

[Thunder Bolt]

Commentators kept referring to it as a ‘leave’ voting ward / area on the live results show last night (?).

It was. It was 52% Leave in the referendum.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

If the Tories agree not to stand a candidate in those seats, giving the Labour leavers the chance to vote again for leave without having to do the unthinkable and vote Tory, Labour would lose several such seats.

Don't buy it in those northern seats where the Leave vote was high, Sunderland might well see a smaller Labour majority but no-one else is winning the seats. A lot of the Brexit Party vote is people punishing the Tories for not delivering, that same sentiment won't exist in Labour seats

 

[Sorrel]

With Boris leading the Conservative, the Brexit Party really haven’t got a hope of wining a seat: maybe somewhere in north-east, but generally not much chance. They will just split the vote and let the Liberals in.

Good news for the liberals and probably good news for Farage too as he prefers being a valiant loser to winning.

 

[GT49er]

Don't buy it in those northern seats where the Leave vote was high, Sunderland might well see a smaller Labour majority but no-one else is winning the seats. A lot of the Brexit Party vote is people punishing the Tories for not delivering, that same sentiment won't exist in Labour seats

Brexit party, with the Tories not competing in certain pro-leave Labour seats would see Labour punished for hindering Brexit every step of the way. Labour would lose some seats - don't kid yourself. The only way Labour would win would be if the Tories were too arrogant to consider withdrawing from a few constituencies to give the BP a clear field to reinforce the pro-Brexit elements in Parliament. Luckily for Labour, the Tories probably are too arrogant.

 

[ManOfSussex]

You are confusing the Brexit Party with UKIP. There are very good reasons why the Brexit Party is separate from UKIP, leaving the latter to fester in its nasty right wing-ness. The Brexit Party is a one issue party, basically a pressure group rather than a party - which is what UKIP was when it was on the rise - and where it should have stayed.

What's their policy position on the issues I mentioned though? Is it the same as UKIP in 2010 or not? Many of the same individuals from then are in the Brexit Party now. If they want to take votes off Labour in deprived leave voting constituencies such as mine for example, what's their policy on Universal Credit, because not everything is about Brexit for some people? Pressure group or political party, I can't see how the Tories can do a pact with them at a general election when they don't have a manifesto, let alone because of clashes of ego between certain individuals in the two of them.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

take votes but not seats

Yes I would tend to agree with that. Unless Labour completely collapse they can 'afford' to ignore the loss of the votes!

 

[GT49er]

What's their policy position on the issues I mentioned though?

Who cares? It doesn't matter, it's irrelevant. They don't need to have a policy on any of those things just to satisfy you. UKIP made the mistake of trying to turn itself into a party with policies on everything. The Brexit party hasn't been that stupid, not yet anyway, and hopefully it won't - it is a single issue party, or in reality a pressure group. Once we are out of the EU, it will probably just cease to exist. There will be no need for it.

 

[TSB]

It was. It was 52% Leave in the referendum.

Maybe they've since seen sense?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

There's an interesting paradox here though. BP's chance of getting any real power is to do a deal with the Tories so they stand aside in some constituencies and the Tories stand aside in a few too. Under this deal, Farage would be given a cabinet seat. But if they start polling too weakly, Tories would consider them an irrelevance and see no need to do a deal.
But - and here's the paradox - a low-polling Brexit party would still take votes from the Tories.

It's a bit of a problem for Johnson to decide what to do

I’m still not sure the Brexit party will get enough votes to win more than a couple of seats even if the Tories step aside.

Could you imagine the blue meltdown if the tories did this as well?

Which seats would they step aside in? If already a Tory MP would they stand as an independent to split the vote even more?

If it came to a GE, how many people can you see actually voting for the Brexit party? Enough leavers are against no deal to counter a large number that do - I get the feeling this is you? Voted leave but against a no deal?

In the European election it was all Shiney and new, in 6 months - 2 years time it will just be noise.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Did you listen to Mishal Husain interview Rabb this week?

If that was Pro-Brext, well..........

Wasn’t that just a journalist calling out lies by a member of the cabinet

 

[GT49er]

I’m still not sure the Brexit party will get enough votes to win more than a couple of seats even if the Tories step aside.

Could you imagine the blue meltdown if the tories did this as well?

Which seats would they step aside in? If already a Tory MP would they stand as an independent to split the vote even more?

If it came to a GE, how many people can you see actually voting for the Brexit party? Enough leavers are against no deal to counter a large number that do - I get the feeling this is you? Voted leave but against a no deal?

In the European election it was all Shiney and new, in 6 months - 2 years time it will just be noise.

Point of order. There aren't any Tory MPs in those northern Labour safe seats that are pro-Brexit.

 

[bazbha]

How about we leave first, respect democracy. If after 5 years it's true what they say, have another referendum to join as full members of the EU.

Think 5 years is a bit too soon as we were denied a vote by Blair & co for a lot longer than that.

 

[GT49er]

Think 5 years is a bit too soon as we were denied a vote by Blair & co for a lot longer than that.

Every 40 years has been fine for referendums on Scottish independence and the EU up to now. 40 years then; like it or lump it. The Scots can have another go in 2040 something too.



......and BTW, we were denied a vote by Thatcher too. Just to keep things even, like......................

 

[Gwylan]

Did you listen to Mishal Husain interview Rabb this week?

If that was Pro-Brext, well..........

Yes, that's one of the examples I was thinking of. He outright lied and she should have nailed him, instead he had the last word.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Who cares? It doesn't matter, it's irrelevant. They don't need to have a policy on any of those things just to satisfy you. UKIP made the mistake of trying to turn itself into a party with policies on everything. The Brexit party hasn't been that stupid, not yet anyway, and hopefully it won't - it is a single issue party, or in reality a pressure group. Once we are out of the EU, it will probably just cease to exist. There will be no need for it.

That's fine. It's why they wont make much of an impact at a general election, other than splitting the vote for people who 'believe in Brexit'

The Tories will not do a pact with a party, single issue or otherwise, who don't have a manifesto or policies. The Monster Raving Loony Party has a manifesto policy on Brexit, they don't. Judging by some of the individuals in The Brexit Party and things they've said, I can understand their reluctance to show their hand.

A policy position on Universal Credit might help them in a lot of leave voting, Labour constituencies, that some people think they're supposedly going to win votes on behalf of the Tories. Perhaps they also realise that Leave voters in Labour constituencies that voted leave and Labour voters in Labour constituencies that voted leave are not all the same people either. Perhaps they don't.