[Politics] Brexit

[nicko31]

Everyone in the country will now be worse off for years to come in one way or another, may I ask what it is that you have " won" with the UK ( some of it ) leaving the EU ?

Surely now, a United Union of four nations striving to explore the exciting new opportunities, the commonwealth is ours, surely we are all winners

 

[Gazwag]

I'm not, I'm still in the EU with my new EU passport on the way

Sorry to disappoint you but the front cover doesn't have EU on the front anymore

 

[Gazwag]

LEAVE MEANS LEAVE.........I'm dreaming of a white christmas
Regards
DF

Corrected that for you

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Sorry to disappoint you but the front cover doesn't have EU on the front anymore

It does when it comes from an EU 27 member state

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Pleased for you.





On our way.


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Thanks, me too.

Not on my way

 

[Two Professors]

It does when it comes from an EU 27 member state

Don't forget to join the 'other countries' queue if you visit in future.You might need a visa if the EU still act twattish on travel.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Don't forget to join the 'other countries' queue if you visit in future.You might need a visa if the EU still act twattish on travel.

Every single time I’ve come into U.K. airports (too many) the queues for U.K. nationals is about half an hour long whilst other nationals just breeze through.

Almost made me go for Irish passport.

 

[Baker lite]

Thanks, me too.

Not on my way

Over the moon for you also.






All on our way.


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[The Clamp]

Don't forget to join the 'other countries' queue if you visit in future.You might need a visa if the EU still act twattish on travel.

As opposed to the 27 countries we’ll have to queue for. You really don’t think your posts through, do you.

 

[Baker lite]

As opposed to the 27 countries we’ll have to queue for. You really don’t think your posts through, do you.

A price worth paying surely?....
We’re British, we’re rather good at queuing.




On our way.


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[The Clamp]

A price worth paying surely?....
We’re British, we’re rather good at queuing.




On our way.


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Well, I think it’ll be the very least of our problems.

But for now we can rest easy knowing we are still a member of the EU.

 

[Two Professors]

As opposed to the 27 countries we’ll have to queue for. You really don’t think your posts through, do you.

Only you would queue at 27 different entry gates one after the other-everybody else visits one country at a time.You really don't think,do you?

 

[The Clamp]

Only you would queue at 27 different entry gates one after the other-everybody else visits one country at a time.You really don't think,do you?

Jesus wept. You can’t be this thick, surely?

 

[Baldseagull]

A price worth paying surely?....
We’re British, we’re rather good at queuing.




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I can think of a few you must have been at the back end of.

 

[The Clamp]

I can think of a few you must have been at the back end of.

Haha! Owned. Very well done, Sir.

 

[Baldseagull]

Jesus wept. You can’t be this thick, surely?

I used to think it was an act too.

 

[Mellotron]

Brino it is then. I suspect 95% of leavers won't care, thinking they have "won", as that's all that really matters it appears.

Actual Brexit is meant to be the beginning of the UK’s heroic solo journey. But, in fact, it will probably prove the end. That’s because Johnson will then struggle to negotiate a trade deal with the EU that can pass the Commons.

Next year, when Brexiter trade fantasies crash into reality, expect a new scenario to emerge: Brino (Brexit in name only) for now. Brino entails the UK leaving the EU but staying in the single market and customs union, and paying into the European budget, until it can devise a beneficial Brexit. Since there isn’t one, Brino could stick for years.

The UK’s plan for the trade talks is to peel countries off the EU’s common negotiating position. That’s why it’s adding staff to embassies around Europe. In certain capitals, British diplomats are taking local officials to lunch and suggesting ad hoc fallback arrangements for bilateral trade in case the UK-EU trade talks fail.


How Boris Johnson's Brexit election gamble maps out


“Is that allowed?” the local might ask. And the Brit will answer, perhaps not entirely accurately: “Don’t worry, member state X is discussing the same arrangement with us.”

Bilateral arrangements aren’t allowed. The EU’s rules are clear: Brussels, not individual member states, handles trade. If there’s one thing the EU27 agree on, it’s the need to preserve the single market. So they won’t let the UK access bits of it without following European rules.

Johnson wants to diverge from these rules to turn Britain into a low-tax, low-cost, low-regulation global exporter. However, this is a doomed fantasy. First, if he tries it, he can forget selling into the single market. And where is Britain going to export all that stuff to, if not to the EU? The US won’t offer a trade deal unless the Commons agrees to open up the National Health Service and food markets to American companies.

Second, the UK will never be cheap enough to compete on price with (say) China or Vietnam. Third, manufacturing is somewhere around 10 per cent of British GDP, not enough to sustain an economic model.

In short, leaving the single market will cause pain. However, most voters won’t accept pain. It’s not what they were promised. Johnson is currently assuring them that passing his withdrawal agreement will “get Brexit done”. They will be aghast when the whole boring drama segues straight into trade.

Moreover, once Brexit happens, almost all opposition MPs, many Tories, plus business will push for something softer, more Brinoesque.

When his whizzo trade deal proves elusive, Johnson might try crashing out of the EU, but parliament has shown it will stop kamikaze Brexits. Anyway, no-deal would be just a phase. Within weeks, the UK would need to ask Brussels for a relationship again. So no-deal could lead to Brino.

The withdrawal agreement foresees a transition until December 2020, during which time the UK stays in the single market and customs union. The agreement allows the transition to be extended just once, for up to two years. But when that period ends, the UK still won’t want to jump off the cliff.

The easiest way out for the EU would then be to reword the withdrawal agreement and extend the transition again and, if necessary, again. After all, Brino suits Brussels: the UK keeps paying into its budget, and nobody’s trade suffers.

For Britain, Brino is a pointless act of self-harm. It would mean following the EU’s rules but without a seat at the table. That’s acceptable for a small country such as Norway, which is used to rule-taking, but the UK has always had a seat at every table. Brino therefore probably wouldn’t last for ever. Yet for now, it’s the most workable scenario.

Brino would allow Johnson to boast that he had “got Brexit done” painlessly. Most voters could live with it too: they switched off the detail years ago. Google searches in the UK for Manchester United Football Club have exceeded searches for “Brexit” almost continuously since the referendum. And when voters were polled about their opinions of Johnson’s withdrawal agreement, about a third admitted they didn’t know.

After Brino, hardcore Leavers could get on with designing their fantasy departure. Occasionally they would put their proposals to parliament, but these would always be rejected because of all the problems that we now know about. Only a few Brexit bores would pay attention.

Meanwhile, Remainers could fight on as Rejoiners. Since Brino would scarcely change the UK’s relationship with the EU, Britain could return relatively easily in a few years, admittedly without its current opt-outs.

Britons in 2016 were promised a Brexit with no hard choices. Brino is the closest thing to it.

Follow Simon on @KuperSimon or email him at simon.kuper@ft.com

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Brino it is then. I suspect 95% of leavers won't care, thinking they have "won", as that's all that really matters it appears.

The idiot who wrote that article has no idea about Norway's relationship with the EU.

They are certainly not a 'rule taker'.

https://twitter.com/AdrianYalland/status/1073867169723756544?s=19

 

[Two Professors]

I used to think it was an act too.

Two posts without foul language.Very well done.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Just another tolerant loser [emoji2371]




On our way.


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Another sad act in more ways than one
Regards
DF