[Politics] Brexit

[Blue Valkyrie]

This is how I see this going:

1. EU Summit rejects Boris's backstop solution. No "Deal" reached.
2. 19 Oct 19 - Parliament reconvenes. Johnson asks for vote on his backstop solution to give it parliamentary backing. Corbyn rejects this as EU has already rejected it. Corbyn demands the Benn Act be executed and Boris seeks extension.
3. Boris leaves it as late as possible but eventually caves and writes letter seeking extension.
4. Boris immediately announces a General Election for the end of November.
5. Boris goes into full "Me and the People vs Parliament" mode.
6. EU accept extension to January.
7. EU also announce they'll extend further to June if UK wishes to hold a Second Referendum.
8. Farage kicks off that No Deal hasn't happened, that Boris is full of shit and an electoral pact is off.
9. Boris takes a kicking in the polls as Leavers begin to desert Tories for Brexit Party.
10.General Election produces another hung Parliament.

1 - 6 Probably, but then anything could happen.

Hopefully the DUP lose influence, and the tail stops wagging the dog, after an election though.

 

[A1X]

The only way by which an election seriously changes anything is if the Tories get a majority large enough to see off the DUP, at which point they go for a deal which hangs NI out to dry and force that through, or the Tories can no longer form a Government (however that transpires). Anything else and we're just back here again in January.

 

[A1X]

[TWEET]1182251163175002112[/TWEET]

 

[nicko31]

If we get Brexit on Oct 31st will this thread no longer be relevant and so locked?Please someone say yes.

There is only one way we can leave on 31st and that's with no deal. That won't even be the end of the beginning, and what's more if you think we've been owed by Europe since 1975 you're going to be in for a rather nasty shock

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

There is only one way we can leave on 31st and that's with no deal. That won't even be the end of the beginning, and what's more if you think we've been owed by Europe since 1975 you're going to be in for a rather nasty shock

There will be a lot of nasty shocks after *no deal*. Some of the loudest cheerleaders for it on NSC will be the hardest hit - which is the tiniest consolation.

 

[nicko31]

The only way by which an election seriously changes anything is if the Tories get a majority large enough to see off the DUP, at which point they go for a deal which hangs NI out to dry and force that through, or the Tories can no longer form a Government (however that transpires). Anything else and we're just back here again in January.

If that happens...

a) Civil war in NI

b) Indy ref 2

It won't end well...

 

[nicko31]

There will be a lot of nasty shocks after *no deal*. Some of the loudest cheerleaders for it on NSC will be the hardest hit - which is the tiniest consolation.

It will be straight back to withdrawal agreement in a far weaker position. Could be a lot of corporate litigation as well against HM government....

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I warned of the difficulties some people were having getting Settled Status, even when they have all the relevant paperwork. Some are being given preSettled Status instead of Settled Status, but the Home Office is making a mess of it.

Now they are issuing threats, then backtracking and saying it was taken out of context. I wouldn't trust this lot as far as I can throw them.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ettled-status-could-be-deported-minister-says

 

[Pavilionaire]

I'm wondering how quickly the government will remove their "Get Ready For Brexit 31st October" adverts and web campaign, given that they've probably done deals with TV stations to run right up to that date.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Genius.

https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1182204784427851776?s=19

 

[A1X]

If that happens...

a) Civil war in NI

b) Indy ref 2

It won't end well...

Oh jeez obviously it won't, any Brexit bar the softest possible doesn't end well. But in purely Parliamentary terms that is the only way by which anything changes from where we are right now, there might be some tinkering with the numbers but fundamentally we'll be back here in January.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Genius.

https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1182204784427851776?s=19

One of the best accounts on Twitter.

 

[ManOfSussex]

1 - 6 Probably, but then anything could happen.

Hopefully the DUP lose influence, and the tail stops wagging the dog, after an election though.

Both Nigel Dodds and Emma Little-Pengelly haven't got huge majorities and their constituencies aren't majority unionist as well, plus if the pro-remain Unionist vote switches to Alliance, some tactical voting takes place by Sinn Fein voters and other Unionists switch back to The UUP elsewhere, hopefully a few of those DUP pro-Brexit oddballs will lose their seats anyway.

 

[BBassic]

Genius.

https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1182204784427851776?s=19

Brilliant.

Incidentally, would love to see your 'Narrator' thing as a Twitter account.

 

[ManOfSussex]

One of the best accounts on Twitter.

This one made me chuckle.

[tweet]1181238440265953280[/tweet]

 

[WATFORD zero]

I think you are getting confused again. I asked

We tried leaving with a deal, and it appears there was no majority for that.

We even tried leaving with no deal (which was specifically ruled out as part of the Leave campaign), and it appears there was no majority for that.

So what do you think we should we do now to 'respect' this referendum ?

Which you seem to have somehow interpreted as 'If you had a magic time machine and could go back and in time and change history what would you do ?'

I think that leaver Jezza should have voted May's deal through rather than run the risk of us now CRASHING out without a deal, as he so eloquently puts it.

So I'll try again, in really simple terms 'what do you think we should we do NOW to 'respect' this referendum

 

[Two Professors]

Will he keep popping into the toilets and changing his outfit? “Oh yeah, I’ve just seen two profs in the toilets, he’ll be out in a minute. In fact I’ll just go and check on him”...

Obvs I won’t be at Wetherspoons with him. I wouldn’t go anywhere near him if the world was flooded with piss and he was sat in the only tree.

Typical eu lover.Even wants everyone to smell the same as him-Eau de Stale piss.

 

[dingodan]

This is how I see this going:

1. EU Summit rejects Boris's backstop solution. No "Deal" reached.
2. 19 Oct 19 - Parliament reconvenes. Johnson asks for vote on his backstop solution to give it parliamentary backing. Corbyn rejects this as EU has already rejected it. Corbyn demands the Benn Act be executed and Boris seeks extension.
3. Boris leaves it as late as possible but eventually caves and writes letter seeking extension.
4. Boris immediately announces a General Election for the end of November.
5. Boris goes into full "Me and the People vs Parliament" mode.
6. EU accept extension to January.
7. EU also announce they'll extend further to June if UK wishes to hold a Second Referendum.
8. Farage kicks off that No Deal hasn't happened, that Boris is full of shit and an electoral pact is off.
9. Boris takes a kicking in the polls as Leavers begin to desert Tories for Brexit Party.
10.General Election produces another hung Parliament.

I agree with you up until 9.

Boris doesn't take a kicking at the polls, maintains his lead, with the remain (and Libs who don't like JC) vote split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens, although LD and Greens don't get the kind of gains they have been expecting. Turns out that EU elections don't translate into GE results.

Labour also lose a lot of the "working man's" and Brexit vote to the only conservative leader who could ever have attracted them, Boris. Brexit Party get nowhere beyond what was achieved by UKIP as Brexit voters don't see a BP majority as at all possible, and blame only remain MP's for the delay not Boris, they see the only way to get it done as being to give the current Gov't a majority in this election.

However.

I might not be the only person to predict it this way, the EU might also see that this is the likely outcome, and they may (already) realize that if they can't get movement on the current deal on offer, things only get harder if the current Gov't get a majority at a GE. So perhaps what actually happens is that we get an extension, GE is announced, but all of a sudden a deal get's done pre-31st October, pre-GE, and after all of that we leave on 31st anyway with the deal on offer, perhaps with some superficial concessions from the UK to help the EU save face.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I think you are getting confused again. I asked



Which you seem to have somehow interpreted as 'If you had a magic time machine and could go back and in time and change history what would you do ?'



So I'll try again, in really simple terms 'what do you think we should we do NOW to 'respect' this referendum

Leave the EU.

 

[Klaas]

I'm thinking of starting a poll on the name of Goliath's main account

Suggestions so far,

Sussex Nomates
Two Plums
Baker Lite

(Although, if I remember rightly even [MENTION=35289]Baker lite[/MENTION] wasn't THAT stupid before he unilaterally left the EU )

Sussex Nomad. Or at a stretch bashldir.