[Politics] Brexit

[Stat Brother]

Meanwhile the Grandson of Winston Churchill is kicked out of the party!!!

Really can't understand how any sane person can vote for them now. They are now a narrow English nationalist cult...

Which people will vote for in there droves.
Because underneath the facade many many thousands are just xenophobic racists.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I reckon (1) can be done by throwing the DUP under the bus and having a customs boundary in the Irish Sea. No customs union for the rest of the UK.

Add EFTA membership and payment for EEA access.

We'll end up with more and tastier cake than Switzerland - and we can have it all to ourselves and eat it many times per day as well.

I agree there are other options (or variations on options), but that was what I predicted straight after the referendum as the only realistic options, and I don't think anything has changed to make other options more likely

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The EU won't force us out.

If we go 'no deal' and blow our brains out economically they, as our nearest neighbours, will have one hell of a dry cleaning bill. I'm afraid they are not stupid (which is where the leave plan started to come apart )

So you think they will allow us to extend the deadline till January in the hope we can cook up a deal or give up and remain? And in January when we are in exactly the same place we are in now, they will let us extend till May? Perhaps they will - what do they have to lose?

My view is a deal that avoids a hard border in Ireland is impossible, and that it will take a couple of years to work out all the other various treaties and arrangements. I suspect Boris thinks that unless we leave now, then do the deals, the deals will never be done. Much as I detest the man, he is dishonest rather than thick, and if one is hell bent on leaving the Boris strategy seems to make sense.

We shall see....

 

[nicko31]

Which people will vote for in there droves.
Because underneath the facade many many thousands are just xenophobic racists.

English exceptionalism is at the heart of things, especially in the older generation and that threatens the very existence of the United Kingdom. The EU ultimately is the glue that holds our own union together

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

From the BBC:

'Former cabinet minister Rory Stewart, who voted against the government last night, was sacked from the Conservative Party by text message.

Extraordinarily, he received the text just as he was going on stage to collect an award as one of GQ magazine's men of the year.

He told the lively audience: "I'm very proud to take the award as politician of the year on the evening of which I cease to be a politician."

Top man Rory, his day will come again

 

[Hamilton]

How do you square this circle?

5 Live this morning talking to Welsh farmers.
They were in favour of No Deal Brexit in order to get some closure.
48% tariff on their product meant "well we just won't spend any money for a year or so".

One said:-

'You can't take No Deal off the table as that's part of the negotiation, and will seriously weaken our position'.
'But what would No Deal mean for you?'
'Oh it would be catastrophic'.


I started bleeding out of my eyes.

We seem to be at a point in history where people have detached logical reasoning from emotional reasoning. There does appear to be a genuine desire to move away from the EU as it is perceived to be undemocratic and staffed by corrupt individuals only interested in their own careers. There's a fear that a United States of Europe will emerge and that all our individual freedoms will be removed from us. This is fear real in peoples minds.

On the other hand people know that all the indicators suggest real pain. IMF data says that we'll see hard recession if we leave with no deal. Now, people don't want to hear this. They don't want catastrophe, but they would rather leap into the unknown and hope all the indicators are wrong rather than stay in the EU.

The EU isn't perfect. There's loads to be fixed. But then again, no form of government is perfect. There is always something that will not be to someone's liking. What the politicians who support a 'stand alone' ideology are doing is appealing to the hope that there is a better way. But hope isn't a good position to take when you're making decisions that will affect people materially.

Personally, I have no problem building strong relationships with the EU - I didn't mind being a member - but equally, I wouldn't have signed up to things like a European Army (but hey, we had the right of veto on that anyhow). Personally, I think our role in the world has changed so much, that the modern Britain had a role as a significant player in a big trading bloc (Europe) and ideas that we'd retain our economic and political status outside of that were fanciful. But hey ho.

Now, we've voted to leave and I reluctantly believe we have to leave, but not with no deal - that would be madness: Like sending ourselves to the back of the class. Again, all the data says, don't do it, but we've been emotionally screwed up by UK stories about Europe. It's almost as if nobody can think straight anymore.

If I had a magic wand, we'd remain, but the time has passed.

 

[Pondicherry]

thats the withdrawal negotition covered. the suggestion was that if the EU has to unimously agree to the deal and the UK could, bizarely, veto their own deal. clause 4:

the leaving member take no part in the discussion as part of the European Council.

I could be wrong here but I think you are missing the point. I agree that we do not get a vote on the deal. However that is not relevant as what is being proposed is an extension to the negotiation period. We do have to agree to that (in theory a veto). As there is no deal currently agreed, Boris might in theory veto the extension and we would exit with no deal.

 

[beorhthelm]

The only way out of this mess is for the Labour/Lib Dems/SNP/Caroline Lucas to take us out of the EU with the softest of Brexits that honours the referendum. Not ideal, and the No Deal contingent on here will be most displeased, but the current situation is far from ideal either.

dont see the Liberals or SNP will back even a softest exit, they would want at least another referedum on it. the WA is soft brexit, we leave and remain in customs unions, they voted against that. besides, the price of alliance with SNP is probably too hgh for Labour, it damages them in Scotland.

I reckon (1) can be done by throwing the DUP under the bus and having a customs boundary in the Irish Sea. No customs union for the rest of the UK.

that does seem to be a way to resolve this, but regulatory alignment for NI is the sticking point. essentially NI becomes closer legally to Ireland than UK. difficult to sell to unionists either side of the Irish sea.

 

[WATFORD zero]

So you think they will allow us to extend the deadline till January in the hope we can cook up a deal or give up and remain? And in January when we are in exactly the same place we are in now, they will let us extend till May? Perhaps they will - what do they have to lose?

My view is a deal that avoids a hard border in Ireland is impossible, and that it will take a couple of years to work out all the other various treaties and arrangements. I suspect Boris thinks that unless we leave now, then do the deals, the deals will never be done. Much as I detest the man, he is dishonest rather than thick, and if one is hell bent on leaving the Boris strategy seems to make sense.

We shall see....

There was never going to be a 'good deal' where we would get any benefits of being in the EU without customs union, payments etc. That was just a complete lie as has now been proven by the fact that nobody has been able to give even an outline of what this 'good deal' was going to be. That's why Johnson hasn't put a proposal up to 'negotiate' with the EU and why no negotiations have taken place since he got in. He simply doesn't have any proposal

'No deal' is possible operationally, even if it was still a complete disaster economically. However, for it to work operationally, we would need customs posts in NI, Lorry parks at all ports, new IT infrastructure, systems to be specified and built, huge numbers of staff to be recruited and trained. It is possible, but maybe in a 3-5 year timescale, not 30 days, and dumping NI would only change the customs posts part. (If I hear we've started to invest in those areas, I'm taking my pensions out and investing them in Tarmac companys, IT and software houses and recruitment and training agencies and I'll give you a shout to do the same ).

So where does that leave us ?

As you rightly say, still up shit creek, but there is a paddle called 'second referendum'. This would have to give detailed plans for leaving and as we spoke about before, make sure the leave vote isn't split. This does give both the main parties a way out (but the tories will probably have other things on their mind now).

In the meanwhile, the EU are happy to look on as bemused bystanders and let us keep extending. (It's almost like us staying in the EU).

Because, as has been proven, GE's and changing PM don't change the numbers sufficiently to give any way out

 

[cheshunt seagull]

English exceptionalism is at the heart of things, especially in the older generation and that threatens the very existence of the United Kingdom. The EU ultimately is the glue that holds our own union together

If we do crash out (and I hope we don't) the one positive outcome could be that we are finally forced to grow up as a nation, move on from WW11 and realise that we are no more special than anyone else and not immune to the things that other countries have had to go through. We too often present as simultaneously arrogant, entitled, aggressive and whiny victim who never takes any responsibility and this is perfectly embodied by Johnson, Francois and co.

 

[Stat Brother]

Soames represents a 53.1% remain constituency.
Soames voted against a No Deal Brexit.
Soames is a traitor of the electorate and the people he represents.

 

[Stat Brother]

If we do crash out (and I hope we don't) the one positive outcome could be that we are finally forced to grow up as a nation, move on from WW11 and realise that we are no more special than anyone else and not immune to the things that other countries have had to go through. We too often present as simultaneously arrogant, entitled, aggressive and whiny victim who never takes any responsibility and this is perfectly embodied by Johnson, Francois and co.

Clinging onto that belief is the exact reason why we're crashing out.

 

[Chicken Run]

Poor old Jeremy, been calling for an election for three years and now he doesn’t want one, why is that (said in that annoying fake inquisitive Jeremy tone)

 

[beorhthelm]

'No deal' is possible operationally, even if it was still a complete disaster economically. However, for it to work operationally, we would need customs posts in NI, Lorry parks at all ports, new IT infrastructure, systems to be specified and built, huge numbers of staff to be recruited and trained. It is possible, but maybe in a 3-5 year timescale, not 30 days, and dumping NI would only change the customs posts part. (If I hear we've started to invest in those areas, I'm taking my pensions out and investing them in Tarmac companys, IT and software houses and recruitment and training agencies and I'll give you a shout to do the same ).

agree and pretty much the same needed for a deal right?

 

[Simster]

Well I think we can finally be hopeful of some sanity.

Brexit date pushed back to Jan 31st
General election called
Labour lead a coalition government that renegotiates Brexit sensibly by removing the ridiciculous Tory red lines that made it impossible without damaging the country. So they take us out of the EU thus respecting the referendum result, but keeps us in a customs union thereby securing the GFA.

And if the voting system gets changed to something a bit more fit for purpose, then perhaps the billions we've wasted to date might actually have some value. Apart from anything else, perhaps we'd then see both the Tories and Labour split, as neither of them look fit to govern in truth, because certainly in my life time, they both preach "we are a broad church" but they have both shown they absolutely are not - a faction takes control of those parties, bullies everyone else, and it limits the choice of the electorate. It is time for PR - give everyone a voice.

 

[Lever]

Poor old Jeremy, been calling for an election for three years and now he doesn’t want one, why is that (said in that annoying fake inquisitive Jeremy tone)

...because the GE is still mixed up with the Referendum result?

 

[Klaas]

If we do crash out (and I hope we don't) the one positive outcome could be that we are finally forced to grow up as a nation, move on from WW11 and realise that we are no more special than anyone else and not immune to the things that other countries have had to go through. We too often present as simultaneously arrogant, entitled, aggressive and whiny victim who never takes any responsibility and this is perfectly embodied by Johnson, Francois and co.

cheshunt seagull there, reporting from 300 years in the future, the world an apocalytpic dust bowl after eleven World Wars. Good to know though there's wifi AND nsc is still going.


(Completely agree with you re the Johnson, Francois etc types. Hitting 18 in 1990, I felt that Britain had moved on from that exceptionalist attitude. Here we are in 2019, and the ***** are running the show.)

 

[nicko31]

Soames represents a 53.1% remain constituency.
Soames voted against a No Deal Brexit.
Soames is a traitor of the electorate and the people he represents.

Add to that he voted 3 times for May's deal and only voted against his own party 3 times in 37 years. That's a reward for loyalty.

Met him a few times in the past when he was MP for Crawley, didn't always agree with him, but felt he a politician with absolute integrity that loved his country. There's a big difference between patriotism and nationalism

 

[Gwylan]

that does seem to be a way to resolve this, but regulatory alignment for NI is the sticking point. essentially NI becomes closer legally to Ireland than UK. difficult to sell to unionists either side of the Irish sea.

Why is this a sticking point? The Tories don't need DUP votes any more as they've lost their majority anyway. They could throw them under the bus now. Remember, the original WA had the customs union in the Irish Sea, so we know the EU would be happy with it. It would solve a lot of problems - it would lead to bloody murder in NI, mind you but I get the feeling that wouldn't concern Johnson too much.

 

[Bob!]

Poor old Jeremy, been calling for an election for three years and now he doesn’t want one, why is that (said in that annoying fake inquisitive Jeremy tone)

Because he wants to make sure that Johnson can't crash us out of the EU by changing the date of the election until after October 31?