[Politics] Brexit

[jasetheace]

In the end 2016 was unfortunate timing to be having the debate (Cameron's fault, I accept). A couple of years on, we are by our own ineffectiveness, excluded from what is now a very real debate about immigration within the EU which if not side-lined, we could have influenced greatly.

It is not too late to jump back in and win the type of concessions for which a good chunk of those that voted leave wished for. There is now a seismic shift in public opinion which gives May's mob the leverage and license to do just that.

Nobody voted to turn their lives into a pain in the jacksee...

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Freedom to live and work in up to 26 other countries.

And I believe that therein lies the problem. Freedom of movement.

Working class people voted to leave as they have seen their wages pushed down over the past decade by cheap, imported labour.

The Country needs immigration - the NHS wouldn't survive without it. Hotels, hospitality, transport, farming etc. the same.

BUT we cannot continue to bring in cheap labour and expect to find homes for an additional 300,000 plus people every year.

Still approx 4% of the UK unemployed - we need to train and educate our own workforce.

Immigration has to be controlled, and we have to have the ability to decide who we do want to come and live and work in the UK.

Could I waltz into the USA or Australia if I didn't have the skills they want/need?

Freedom of movement of goods should IMO be a separate matter - nobody wants tariffs etc.on goods but unfortunately freedom of movement (people & goods) have become intertwined.

 

[Cadiz Seagull]

Whether or not there is a second referendum, the very fact that it is even being discussed will be detrimental to the deal we will get from the EU. They don't want us to leave, partly because we pay a lot of money to them and partly because if we did go it would encourage other countries, many of whom have growing anti-EU factions.

While Europe thinks there is any chance of a second referendum that might vote remain there is zero chance of them improving whatever is already on the table.

 

[Gwylan]

One thing that bothers me more than anything else is this idea that anti-Brexit people are somehow responsible for this complete shambles. There is absolutely no reason why any of us remainers shouldn't continue our democratic right to object to it any more than Brexiteers like Farage shouldn't have continued his own fight as he promised had it been 52-48 the other way. [MENTION=19800]lawros left foot[/MENTION] lists a bunch of Brexiteers who had a stake in how Brexit should happen, but have now cowardly backed away from it. I do think it's time these people were held to account by people on their own side i.e. Brexit voters. Stop blaming people like me for this utter clusterfck. Instead, what we've seen is a lack of willing on the part of brexit politicians to resolve the major issues, and the constant fall back of blaming the EU and "remoaners" whenever they don't get their way.

Firstly, the Irish border. A very complicated situation, and in all honesty the only way I can see that working is for NI to remain in the EU. But instead of Brexiteers recognising this obvious fact, all we've heard from them is that it's all the fault of the Irish government or the EU holding us to ransom. It clearly isn't. They haven't changed the status quo - we have. And with this in mind this issue should have been sounded out/thought about well before the 2016 referendum was held.

Secondly, access to the common market. We have spent 40 years building an economy whereby components of high tech products (and services) go back and forth over EU national borders without attracting tariffs. Car plants (for example) in this country simply won't function cost effectively unless we resolve this problem. To elaborate, a car is built in modular steps - headlights constructed in Belgium and shipped here, perhaps with light bubs built in France. Glass windows churned out in Poland and shipped here, that sort of thing. We still have no clue what they are going to do - it is a desperate situation.

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think a second referendum of some sort is likely to happen. We've had gutless leadership from pro-remain Theresa May and even worse from Brexit people like Boris Johnson. I wouldn't trust him to run a bath - let's not forget his shameful antics over the Heathrow vote. He thinks of nothing but his own career. And I'm also tired of other Brexiteers who go running to the right wing pro-Brexit press every time one of their ill considered lunatic ideas is rebuffed by either the remain leaning Tories or the EU. How about you twats come up with a plan that actually works FFS.

I'm a Leaver and I totally agree with this. As i said previously, the plan seems to have been: we want all the benefits of the EU without paying for it and accepting its rules. This was clearly a complete non-starter but not a single Brexiteer has come up with a plan that IS acceptable. When this is pointed out, all they come up with is inanities like "Tick tock" or "You've lost, get over it".

I voted Leave for various reasons but I knew that we needed to establish a good trading relationship with the EU, would have to accept a good many of their rules, probably accept free movement of people (or, at least a version of it) and possibly pay to the EU for some time. I accepted all of that and hoped that the politicians in charge of delivering it would move on from there so that we'd join Switzerland and Norway in being outside the EU but still very much part of the trading bloc.

Instead, we've had to put up with a bunch of preening charlatans scarcely capable of an original thought who run crying to the Mail or Telegraph whenever they come up against reality.

 

[pb21]

This is a genuine question from a self-admitted Brexit novice. I find the arguing and tribalism so tedious that I switch off and go have a bit of cake instead.

Anyway, can someone answer this for me, what's the EU's incentive to get a deal.

Let's think of this as a football transfer. Say we all voted that the club MUST buy a striker. The club approach Team B and say "so, we kinda need one of your strikers". and team B say "well, we don't want to get rid of him at all. We have no interest in it".

Team B will only accept a HUGE offer because 1 - they know Team A are under pressure of a referendum to get a deal done and 2 - They have no interest in selling in the first place. They are happy as they are

So, with the EU not wanting us to leave, how are negotiations anything other than us getting royally ****ed and the EU doing wonderfully out of it?

Again, this isn't a loaded question but more curiosity as I'm sure there is a logical answer.

Well if you believe those who advocated for brexit, and convinced millions of people who didn't know either way, its actually the other way around. We are Team B and we are in the position of holding all the aces and they (team A) need us more than we need them.

So to answer your question from a Brexiteer perspective their incentive they need us more than we need them.

That's probably not true though.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

Well if you believe those who advocated for brexit, and convinced millions of people who didn't know either way, its actually the other way around. We are Team B and we are in the position of holding all the aces and they (team A) need us more than we need them.

So to answer your question from a Brexiteer perspective their incentive they need us more than we need them.

That's probably not true though.

But if the EU need us more than them, they won't agree to a deal......unless they do insanely well out of it.

So the point still stands.

If we were NOT in the EU and the EU approached us wanting us to join, then yes, we would hold the advantage.

So we either stay against the referendum result...or we leave with a bad deal.

We can't win?

 

[Simster]

And I believe that therein lies the problem. Freedom of movement.

Working class people voted to leave as they have seen their wages pushed down over the past decade by cheap, imported labour.

The Country needs immigration - the NHS wouldn't survive without it. Hotels, hospitality, transport, farming etc. the same.

BUT we cannot continue to bring in cheap labour and expect to find homes for an additional 300,000 plus people every year.

Still approx 4% of the UK unemployed - we need to train and educate our own workforce.

Immigration has to be controlled, and we have to have the ability to decide who we do want to come and live and work in the UK.

Could I waltz into the USA or Australia if I didn't have the skills they want/need?

Freedom of movement of goods should IMO be a separate matter - nobody wants tariffs etc.on goods but unfortunately freedom of movement (people & goods) have become intertwined.

For what it's worth, I agree that unchecked freedom of labour has been a massive problem. It wasn't the case when the EU was made up of 12-15 broadly similarly prosperous economies, but when Eastern Europe was admitted it wasn't addressed and it really should have been. It's obvious that semi/unskilled workers cannot compete with scores of East Europeans living 20 to a 3 bed flat, working for small wages (yet far more than they'd get at home) for 2 years at a time, hording their money to take home. All they are doing is driving down labour costs for the locals, and is the reason that socialist Brexiteers are so happy to leave.

Cameron trotted off to the EU cap in hand about 2 years before the referendum when it became obvious people here had had enough of it...and came back with pretty much nothing. Poor negotiating on his part and complacent negotiating on the part of the EU. The EU for it's part really does need to revisit a two tier solution, but the UK quitting the EU in a huff over this issue is simply a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater in my view.

 

[seagulls4ever]

I accept that my figures on the number of non-voting UK citizens were way off the mark (although it's still fair to suggest that was a significant rump of people that could have influenced the result). I didn't reply because the thread had moved on by the time I read it, but it was a fair comment on your part. That's once though, what is the second example of me conveniently ignoring you?

That's not the only point I was challenging you on. It was also your assertion that these people who couldn't vote could normally vote in GEs (there wasn't any eligibility differences between the referendum and the GE, except for some minor ones such as Commonwealth citizens living in Gibraltar being allowed to vote). Also, I questioned whether there was any evidence that there was now a massive majority now in favour of remain, or at least a vote on the final deal.

Posts 65, 155 and 159.

I voted remain BTW. I'm just incredibly frustrated about all the misinformation that's around. That's not something that's just restricted to Brexit.

I'm not sure it would have made much of a difference. I don't know how many of the 1.2m (possibly less, depending on estimates) UK citizens living in the EU (those most affected) had lived there for more than 15 years - it's only those which would have been excluded from the vote - so that number is immediately reduced (don't know the figures). Of worldwide expats (5m), 1.4m were eligible to vote. If 5m worldwide expats were allowed to vote, then that's obviously quite a lot. But at the last GE, only 20% of those who were actually eligible to vote, registered to vote (although I would expect that number to be a lot higher for the referendum, particularly for those living in the EU, but I couldn't find any info on that). Also, I guess there's a reason why those outside the UK for 15+ years aren't allowed to vote - they're not allowed to vote in the GE because they haven't lived in the country for so long, so it wouldn't really be fair to allow them to vote in a referendum either.

 

[pb21]

But if the EU need us more than them, they won't agree to a deal......unless they do insanely well out of it.

So the point still stands.

If we were NOT in the EU and the EU approached us wanting us to join, then yes, we would hold the advantage.

But we have told them we want to leave. The EU either keep us or get reimbursed wonderfully well to let us go.

We have been rather stupid in continuously saying we WILL leave. That means we have absolutely no power in a negotiation as far as I can see.

We can't win?

Well I'm not an expert in game theory, but I suspect you are right and we cant 'win'.

 

[Goldstone1976]

I voted Leave for various reasons but I knew that we needed to establish a good trading relationship with the EU, would have to accept a good many of their rules, probably accept free movement of people (or, at least a version of it) and possibly pay to the EU for some time. I accepted all of that...

Nothing more than curiosity - given the things you were prepared to accept, why did you vote Leave?

 

[BadFish]

I'm a Leaver and I totally agree with this. As i said previously, the plan seems to have been: we want all the benefits of the EU without paying for it and accepting its rules. This was clearly a complete non-starter but not a single Brexiteer has come up with a plan that IS acceptable. When this is pointed out, all they come up with is inanities like "Tick tock" or "You've lost, get over it".

I voted Leave for various reasons but I knew that we needed to establish a good trading relationship with the EU, would have to accept a good many of their rules, probably accept free movement of people (or, at least a version of it) and possibly pay to the EU for some time. I accepted all of that and hoped that the politicians in charge of delivering it would move on from there so that we'd join Switzerland and Norway in being outside the EU but still very much part of the trading bloc.

Instead, we've had to put up with a bunch of preening charlatans scarcely capable of an original thought who run crying to the Mail or Telegraph whenever they come up against reality.

This. The Swiss or Norwegian model looked like something worth investigating.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Remainer almost manages to complete a post without abuse, but fails...................

So, going back to Simster's post 312, what IS your plan? How DO you see the British car industry surviving from this point onwards now they're faced with tariffs, delays and bureaucracy caused by the imminent No Deal outcome.

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm a Leaver and I totally agree with this. As i said previously, the plan seems to have been: we want all the benefits of the EU without paying for it and accepting its rules.

this is not true, though the brexiteer leaders have not done much to dissuade the impression. the idea was to get some of the benefits, accepting some rules and paying. what those benefits and rules where to be was for negotiation. the EU from the start maintained another inanity "cant have your cake an eat it" and dug in. brexit leaders apparently didnt walk around this, holding their "no deal" position while doing nothing in the way of serious planning. so here we are. we will inevitably end up with Norway like deal as we remain in the EEA at this point and thats the only type of arrangment that can be sorted now without massive economic impact to both the UK and EU. remains to be seen how they can fudge Ireland, someone has to backdown as they created a Mexican stand off there.

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

People actually voted ‘no deal’? Wow.

 

[jameswestport]

I blame the bus

 

[Hampster Gull]

So, going back to Simster's post 312, what IS your plan? How DO you see the British car industry surviving from this point onwards now they're faced with tariffs, delays and bureaucracy caused by the imminent No Deal outcome.

There is no plan, they dont have one. This is ideological, for many extremists it doesn’t matter. As Rees-Smog has indicated we won’t know for 50 years whether the gamble of an exit without something better in place will work.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

People actually voted ‘no deal’? Wow.

There's a fairy somewhere with a tick-tocking clock who seems to want that more than anything.

 

[Trufflehound]

Also, I guess there's a reason why those outside the UK for 15+ years aren't allowed to vote - they're not allowed to vote in the GE because they haven't lived in the country for so long, so it wouldn't really be fair to allow them to vote in a referendum either.

Your last statement is not comparing like with like, however.

As someone who has lived outside the UK but within the EU for considerably more than 15 years, I have no problem with not having a say in UK General Elections. I don't pay UK taxes and so I agree that I shouldn't have a say in who sets those taxes. UK domestic affairs by and large don't affect me.

Brexit is not a purely domestic issue. It has the potential to have massive impact on me personally, so it was hugely frustrating to have my democratic rights refused.

 

[seagulls4ever]

Your last statement is not comparing like with like, however.

As someone who has lived outside the UK but within the EU for considerably more than 15 years, I have no problem with not having a say in UK General Elections. I don't pay UK taxes and so I agree that I shouldn't have a say in who sets those taxes. UK domestic affairs by and large don't affect me.

Brexit is not a purely domestic issue. It has the potential to have massive impact on me personally, so it was hugely frustrating to have my democratic rights refused.

Fair enough, although I suspect it could have opened up a can of worms had eligibility criteria changed, with cries of the establishment trying to fix the referendum.

 

[pb21]

There's a fairy somewhere with a tick-tocking clock who seems to want that more than anything.

I do wonder if some of these people are letting their cravings for self-destruction, providing an ultimate sense of control, take over.