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[Politics] Brexit

If there was a second Brexit referendum how would you vote?


  • Total voters
    1,101


pastafarian

Well-known member
Sep 4, 2011
11,902
Sussex
I can't speak for Lincoln Imp, and as I did not find the old post, I cannot confirm either way with absolute certainty whether it was you or another poster that added that, but to my recollection it was you. I apologise if I have got that wrong, but I don't think I have.

well you have got it wrong, it wasnt me that wrote it.
no biggy really........innocent mistake with so many opinions flying about
 




JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
Europe's ideological civil war laid bare in Davos

Our European friends seem to be getting a bit fractious...

“The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it’s buried,” said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

“The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate,” he said at the World Economic Forum.

His comments went to the heart of a fierce battle under way for control over the EU project, and provoked an impassioned counter-attack from Martin Schulz, the European Parliament’s president.

Mr Schulz called it profoundly misguided to give up the dream of political union and retreat to the nation state. “If it’s Angela Merkel, or Mark Rutte, or whoever else, they must have the courage to say that we need ever-closer union more than ever in the 21st century, and without it the EU has no future,” he said.

“We have some members sitting inside the European Parliament trying to destroy the EU from within. They are drawing EU salaries, and one of them is running for the presidency of France,” he said.

Professor Hans-Werner Muller from Princeton University said the EU was unlikely to disintegrate in any formal sense but there was a real risk that it will instead dissolve from within. “We will still have the Treaties, but they will not be observed,” he said.

He accused Hungary and Poland of acting like rogue states inside the EU, abusing the rule of the law with a “brutality” not seen in democratic Europe since the Second World War. “For them it is even better than Brexit. They get all the money, but they don’t obey the rules. If the EU does not do anything about it, trust is going to break down,” he said.

Italy’s finance minister Carlo Pier Padoan has repeatedly blamed the EU authorities for pushing Italy into a banking crisis that could easily have been avoided. “The problem with Europe, is Europe,” he told Davos earlier this week.

Emma Marcegaglia, head of the pan-EU federation BusinessEurope, told the Telegraph that it sticks in the craw to hear some countries talk about EU rules. Germany has been running a chronic current account surplus of 9pc of GDP in open breach of the EU’s ‘macro-imbalances’ edict, damaging to the cohesion of monetary union. Nothing is ever done.

Why isn’t Germany being punished? We can’t go on like this, it’s not sustainable. Some people say Germany should leave the euro,” she said.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/
 


The Rivet

Well-known member
Aug 9, 2011
4,592
Our European friends seem to be getting a bit fractious...

“The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it’s buried,” said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

“The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate,” he said at the World Economic Forum.

His comments went to the heart of a fierce battle under way for control over the EU project, and provoked an impassioned counter-attack from Martin Schulz, the European Parliament’s president.

Mr Schulz called it profoundly misguided to give up the dream of political union and retreat to the nation state. “If it’s Angela Merkel, or Mark Rutte, or whoever else, they must have the courage to say that we need ever-closer union more than ever in the 21st century, and without it the EU has no future,” he said.

“We have some members sitting inside the European Parliament trying to destroy the EU from within. They are drawing EU salaries, and one of them is running for the presidency of France,” he said.

Professor Hans-Werner Muller from Princeton University said the EU was unlikely to disintegrate in any formal sense but there was a real risk that it will instead dissolve from within. “We will still have the Treaties, but they will not be observed,” he said.

He accused Hungary and Poland of acting like rogue states inside the EU, abusing the rule of the law with a “brutality” not seen in democratic Europe since the Second World War. “For them it is even better than Brexit. They get all the money, but they don’t obey the rules. If the EU does not do anything about it, trust is going to break down,” he said.

Italy’s finance minister Carlo Pier Padoan has repeatedly blamed the EU authorities for pushing Italy into a banking crisis that could easily have been avoided. “The problem with Europe, is Europe,” he told Davos earlier this week.

Emma Marcegaglia, head of the pan-EU federation BusinessEurope, told the Telegraph that it sticks in the craw to hear some countries talk about EU rules. Germany has been running a chronic current account surplus of 9pc of GDP in open breach of the EU’s ‘macro-imbalances’ edict, damaging to the cohesion of monetary union. Nothing is ever done.

Why isn’t Germany being punished? We can’t go on like this, it’s not sustainable. Some people say Germany should leave the euro,” she said.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/

Angel Merkel says they will be UNITED in brexit talks. I wonder if she is a comic sometimes.
 


JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
Angel Merkel says they will be UNITED in brexit talks. I wonder if she is a comic sometimes.

Wishful thinking on her part. Germany would most likely come to a sensible settlement re Brexit, unfortunately, the joys of European democracy mean any nation can veto it or try to extort numerous concessions from the net EU contributors. Saying that I expect the French will be the biggest problem. Quelle surprise,
 


Mental Lental

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,300
Shiki-shi, Saitama
Saying that I expect the French will be the biggest problem.

I suspect it will be one of the minnows. Like that obscure part of Belgium that put the kibosh on the Canadian trade deal for a while. Some provincial little country drunk with the power of veto piping up just so people around the world might actually take notice of them for once.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,763
The Fatherland
Has anyone read this book?
 

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wellquickwoody

Many More Voting Years
NSC Patron
Aug 10, 2007
13,922
Melbourne
At least you have offered an exact guess, although I fear a [MENTION=267]TSB[/MENTION] moment where this will be bounced a year or two in the future to show how useless your predictions really are .....

Life must be ever so cosy in your utopian ideal world. Enjoy it as best you can before reality comes crashing down on you.
 


wellquickwoody

Many More Voting Years
NSC Patron
Aug 10, 2007
13,922
Melbourne
im wondering on what basis why you believe 5% inflation this year (bearing in mind price of fuel incease due to currency is already todays inflation), and what series of events would lead to 7% interest rates, in particular why the increasing interest wouldn't reduce inflation?

Just using the information put in front of me on a daily basis to form an opinion. Most forward predictions of inflation are averaging out at around 3% by the end of 2017, but this is based almost entirely on currency fluctuations. Other inflationary pressure also hit suppliers meaning that prices are rising even before the fall in the value of the pound is factored in. 5% is only my opinion.

Interest rates are certain to rise if inflation is running away. It is the biggest, bluntest tool the BofE have to attempt to curb or at least dampen inflation, if people have less disposable income they cannot afford to spend on luxuries or premium brands therefore surpressing all prices from the top down. But hey, if we all keep our heads in the sand maybe it will not happen huh?
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,763
The Fatherland
It's not an estimate is it ? It's a calculation of actual prices looking back.

It's definitely an estimate. Here's how it's calculated.

Firstly, the government (more specifically the Social Survey Division – Office for National Statistics) undertake the Family Expenditure Survey. FES. It is a voluntary survey of about 6,000. This finds out what % of income is spent on different goods. Basket of Goods at ONS This enables the government to create a typical basket of goods. From this a weighting is given to the different goods. e.g petrol may account for 8% of spending. Cigarettes 6% e.t.c.

These sectors then have sub-divisions, e.g. for transport. Then the government undertake a price survey. This means checking the prices of the 1,000 most common goods in the UK, every month. The % change in the price of individual goods and services are noted. The price increases are then multiplied by the weighting of the goods. e.g. if petrol increases 10% and has a weighting of 1.3% in the basket it will be 10% * 0.013. This means they can then calculate the price index.

So they estimate which items and products a household buys from just 6000 people. The weighting of how much a household sends per sector is also estimated. Last, prices for products vary between brand, different shops and across the country, so an average price is found.

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/54/inflation/how-is-inflation-calculated/

As an example, my Apple and craft beer consumption makes my inflation higher than 1.6% :smile:
 


portslade seagull

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2003
17,955
portslade
It's definitely an estimate. Here's how it's calculated.

Firstly, the government (more specifically the Social Survey Division – Office for National Statistics) undertake the Family Expenditure Survey. FES. It is a voluntary survey of about 6,000. This finds out what % of income is spent on different goods. Basket of Goods at ONS This enables the government to create a typical basket of goods. From this a weighting is given to the different goods. e.g petrol may account for 8% of spending. Cigarettes 6% e.t.c.

These sectors then have sub-divisions, e.g. for transport. Then the government undertake a price survey. This means checking the prices of the 1,000 most common goods in the UK, every month. The % change in the price of individual goods and services are noted. The price increases are then multiplied by the weighting of the goods. e.g. if petrol increases 10% and has a weighting of 1.3% in the basket it will be 10% * 0.013. This means they can then calculate the price index.

So they estimate which items and products a household buys from just 6000 people. The weighting of how much a household sends per sector is also estimated. Last, prices for products vary between brand, different shops and across the country, so an average price is found.

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/54/inflation/how-is-inflation-calculated/

As an example, my Apple and craft beer consumption makes my inflation higher than 1.6% :smile:

You obviously have too much money to buy an Apple
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,763
The Fatherland
You obviously have too much money to buy an Apple

Not really. I make sacrifices elsewhere when my phone needs an upgrade. Down grading to Cava goes a long way towards my new phone.
 








Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
well you have got it wrong, it wasnt me that wrote it.
no biggy really........innocent mistake with so many opinions flying about

Yes, you're absolutely right. It was Brexiteer Cunning Fergus who wants to stop workers moving round the country. Apologies to you and Bald Seagull. Can't imagine why I should confuse you with CF.
 




Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
Our European friends seem to be getting a bit fractious...

“The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it’s buried,” said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

“The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate,” he said at the World Economic Forum.

His comments went to the heart of a fierce battle under way for control over the EU project, and provoked an impassioned counter-attack from Martin Schulz, the European Parliament’s president.

Mr Schulz called it profoundly misguided to give up the dream of political union and retreat to the nation state. “If it’s Angela Merkel, or Mark Rutte, or whoever else, they must have the courage to say that we need ever-closer union more than ever in the 21st century, and without it the EU has no future,” he said.

“We have some members sitting inside the European Parliament trying to destroy the EU from within. They are drawing EU salaries, and one of them is running for the presidency of France,” he said.

Professor Hans-Werner Muller from Princeton University said the EU was unlikely to disintegrate in any formal sense but there was a real risk that it will instead dissolve from within. “We will still have the Treaties, but they will not be observed,” he said.

He accused Hungary and Poland of acting like rogue states inside the EU, abusing the rule of the law with a “brutality” not seen in democratic Europe since the Second World War. “For them it is even better than Brexit. They get all the money, but they don’t obey the rules. If the EU does not do anything about it, trust is going to break down,” he said.

Italy’s finance minister Carlo Pier Padoan has repeatedly blamed the EU authorities for pushing Italy into a banking crisis that could easily have been avoided. “The problem with Europe, is Europe,” he told Davos earlier this week.

Emma Marcegaglia, head of the pan-EU federation BusinessEurope, told the Telegraph that it sticks in the craw to hear some countries talk about EU rules. Germany has been running a chronic current account surplus of 9pc of GDP in open breach of the EU’s ‘macro-imbalances’ edict, damaging to the cohesion of monetary union. Nothing is ever done.

Why isn’t Germany being punished? We can’t go on like this, it’s not sustainable. Some people say Germany should leave the euro,” she said.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/19/europes-ideological-civil-war-laid-bare-davos/

Doesn't this show that this is the very moment when the UK could have hugely strengthened its power within the EU and the world? We're choosing the exact wrong time to get out of the EU.
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,274
I suspect it will be one of the minnows. Like that obscure part of Belgium that put the kibosh on the Canadian trade deal for a while. Some provincial little country drunk with the power of veto piping up just so people around the world might actually take notice of them for once.

Wow ! sounds just like May's Brexit strategy lecture.
 




mothy

Well-known member
Dec 30, 2012
2,295
Doesn't this show that this is the very moment when the UK could have hugely strengthened its power within the EU and the world? We're choosing the exact wrong time to get out of the EU.

Quite possibly. But I don't think we'd hear this kind of talk / Euro leaders wouldn't have heard were it not for the fact that we jumped ship
 




Buzzer

Languidly Clinical
Oct 1, 2006
26,121
Doesn't this show that this is the very moment when the UK could have hugely strengthened its power within the EU and the world? We're choosing the exact wrong time to get out of the EU.

I disagree. The last Greek bail-out took funds from ring-fenced sources that were completely outside the scope and jurisdiction of the Eurozone and the result was that UK money was included. There will almost certainly be another bail-out on the horizon for Greece and quite possibly Italy, Portugal and Spain and if so then more UK money will be involved. The Euro is failing and will ultimately collapse and the further we are from that, the better.
 


BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
Life must be ever so cosy in your utopian ideal world. Enjoy it as best you can before reality comes crashing down on you.

Well on this showing I can comfortably expect that my life is far more positive and optimistic than yours thats for sure, just wallowing in pessimism waiting for some bad economic data to back up your previous inaccuracies based on very little evidence doesnt make you realistic by the way .....
 


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