[Politics] Brexit

[Herr Tubthumper]

Thought that was the main reason for visiting this thread .. especially if reading The Clamp's mainly frivolous contributions.

Getting back to the substantive issue. According to 'expert' opinion (IMF, Economists etc) the pound has been overvalued for some time. Forecasts (in 2015) predicted it could fall as low as $1.15 this year. As we know these expert opinions were gospel when it suited the Remain argument so at best I suppose people could say the Brexit vote has facilitated this inevitable readjustment.

Pound over-valued? And no doubt the drop in UK productivity is because the UK was over-productive? The slow down in economic growth is because the economy was growing way too fast? Manufacturing almost non-existent because the UK was making way too much? Construction stalling because the UK was building too much?

Do you really and genuinely think the current chaos of the U.K. economy is merely some re-adjustment because it was previously over-heated?

 

[pb21]

According to 'expert' opinion (IMF, Economists etc) the pound has been overvalued for some time. Forecasts (in 2015) predicted it could fall as low as $1.15 this year.

The IMF, in 2015, were forecasting the £ could fall as low as $1.15 this year? Really?

 

[Diego Napier]

fair enough, you're at ease with that option. raising the question, core to the wider European project, is never irrelevant. many dont want to address any consequences of remaining, as if nothing would change and everything would be to our advantage had we voted the other way.

Many don't need to address any consequences of remaining, many will be addressing the consequences of leaving.

The majority of both Remainers and Leavers join the debate as though their choice has all the pluses and their opponents all the minuses. The reality is that the UK public at large are largely ignorant of the positive and negative impact of the EU on their daily lives and, with their opinions determined by red top headlines & photo-op sound-bites, woefully ill-equipped to make their referendum decision. A fair chunk of the blame for that must lie with our sadly inept "politicians", of all shades.

 

[Alex Alex Dawson oo! oo!]

just as they put in place articles for a common foreign policy and a EU army in to Lisbon, they can make some provision for joining the Eurozone as part of the next EU treaty. there already supposed to be a framework with all members joining exchange rate mechanicsim with objective of joining the Eurozone, they could put firm time frame around that. currently Euro is hamstrung by a lack of EU fiscal policy, and thats difficult to achieve while some members are outside. if they press ahead with only the existing eurozone it would lead inevitably to two tiers with those EU+Euro having different rights and responsibilties to those EU-only.

Who exactly are "they"?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The "game will be up" once there are camps of hundreds of thousands of migrants in Kent and Sussex living in 3rd world conditions

The way the country is collapsing around your ears you'll all be living in 3rd world conditions very shortly.

 

[cunning fergus]

The way the country is collapsing around your ears you'll all be living in 3rd world conditions very shortly.

To some extent you are right, we have medieval religious misogyny, FGM, rising rates of TB, forced marriages, pologomy and honour killings here these days.

Truly the end of days...........you're lucky you don't have such problems to worry about in Germany?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Pound over-valued? And no doubt the drop in UK productivity is because the UK was over-productive? The slow down in economic growth is because the economy was growing way too fast? Manufacturing almost non-existent because the UK was making way too much? Construction stalling because the UK was building too much?

Do you really and genuinely think the current chaos of the U.K. economy is merely some re-adjustment because it was previously over-heated?

Productivity has been a long standing problem. Growth was better than expected last quarter and forecasts have rowed back from predicting recession. Increases in GDP growth still predicted. Low unemployment, record employment. Numerous other indicators faltered pre vote mainly due to uncertainty but have since recovered. FTSE 250 seems to be doing ok and business confidence is making a strong recovery.

Chaos?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The IMF, in 2015, were forecasting the £ could fall as low as $1.15 this year? Really?

IMF said pound was up to 15% overvalued in 2015. Specifically, economists at Deutsche Bank said the £ could fall as low as $1.15 back in 2015. Yes really.

 

[larus]

Although your tone has more than a shade of McCarthy, your assumptions & generalisations sweeping and your eschewal of the benefits of closer European ties as the world inexorably metamorphs from tribal community into the global estate particularly Ludditesque, nevertheless the overall silliness of your post holds a peculiar albeit fleeting charm.

Oh dear. Maybe you should disprove my facts, rather than just a piece of flowery prose which actually fills space but says nothing. Maybe that's all you have to offer; but if you wish to live in the clouds, watching butterflies and dreaming of a European Superstate Utopia, then feel free to continue with your delusion.

Maybe you should tell the young people of Italy, Greece, Portugal that their high level unemployment is just a slight inconvenience as there is this wonderful dream which a lot of people have bought.

 

[larus]

I read a few days ago that if it drops another 10% it will almost certainly force the government into drastic and emergency measures. The way the country is collapsing I presume the minute Article 50 is triggered, or a major corporation pulls out of the U.K., it will be game over.

Hey guys - HT has made a prediction. If that's not a buy sell then I don't know what is. We've all seen his predictions fail (100% record as far as I can see). Maybe he should reign in the emotional hyperbole as it makes him sound like a sulky teenager. I want my way - boo hoo.

 

[cunning fergus]

Oh dear. Maybe you should disprove my facts, rather than just a piece of flowery prose which actually fills space but says nothing. Maybe that's all you have to offer; but if you wish to live in the clouds, watching butterflies and dreaming of a European Superstate Utopia, then feel free to continue with your delusion.

Maybe you should tell the young people of Italy, Greece, Portugal that their high level unemployment is just a slight inconvenience as there is this wonderful dream which a lot of people have bought.

The numerous young spaniards that I work with agree, they are very resentful about what the EU and their spineless government (as they see it) has done to their economy. They would laugh at the sentiment that workers rights are protected by the EU.

What's worse is they have had to leave the bountiful paradise of the EU to find work over here in the 3rd world!

 

[5ways]

Our economy is crashing.

And each Leaver bears a personal responsibility.

 

[5ways]

IMF said pound was up to 15% overvalued in 2015. Specifically, economists at Deutsche Bank said the £ could fall as low as $1.15 back in 2015. Yes really.

Shame you didn't listen to the experts when they said Brexit would be a car crash.

 

[larus]

Our economy is crashing.

Wow, so all of these stats recently showing how well the economy is doing are wrong.

So, the MARKETS are upset (note, this is those same financial merchant bankers who constantly get things wrong - Lehmans etc.), yet this is PROOF that the economy is tanking. The same bankers are the ones who are threatening to relocate to Europe (how many times have we heard these scare stories before, e.g. the Euro), yet they are still here. Yes, some functions may move, but lots will stay. We'll look back in a few months and this will be viewed as a short term knee-jerk reaction and nothing more.

 

[larus]

Shame you didn't listen to the experts when they said Brexit would be a car crash.

What the same experts that said as soon as we voted to leave:
1. We'd be at the back of the queue in trade talks with the US. (Well, that didn't take long until Pratt Obama changed his tune).
2. £30b emergency budget.
3 House price crash.
4. Interest rate rises.

Still waiting pal, so if the markets/bankers are having a hissy fit at the moment I don't care. Markets like to create turmoil as it creates opportunities to make profits.

 

[BigGully]

I read a few days ago that if it drops another 10% it will almost certainly force the government into drastic and emergency measures. The way the country is collapsing I presume the minute Article 50 is triggered, or a major corporation pulls out of the U.K., it will be game over.

HT you seem to have an odd relationship with your homeland, I have worked and lived in Germany and enjoy it immensley and as you know periodically I still do but I adore the UK and its poeple more.

You seem to have such 'blindspot' on anything even remotely challenging the EU, you today choose to offer up a scenario that is undetermined to try and show Brexits catastophic consequence when really all you are doing is just making things up.

I have said this before, you are quick, driven perhaps to casually swipe the UK with evocative words like collapsing, drastic, emergency and 'game over' and much worse whilst actually we are doing quite well thank you.

No mention, now or previously of the issues within the EU including the recent averted banking crisis, migrant crisis, euro crisis, youth unemployment crisis, southern europes many issues and a burgeoning political geographic area where even you couldnt have foreseen, with many of those member states in some level of crisis.

You are too busy flicking the finger at the UK to look and see the comparative chaos around you, the major problems are happening on your doorstep on your watch, thats the real irony.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

HT you seem to have an odd relationship with your homeland, I have worked and lived in Germany and enjoy it immensley and as you know periodically I still do but I adore the UK and its poeple more.

You seem to have such 'blindspot' on anything even remotely challenging the EU, you today choose to offer up a scenario that is undetermined to try and show Brexits catastophic consequence when really all you are doing is just making things up.

I have said this before, you are quick, driven perhaps to casually swipe the UK with evocative words like collapsing, drastic, emergency and 'game over' and much worse whilst actually we are doing quite well thank you.

No mention, now or previously of the issues within the EU including the recent averted banking crisis, migrant crisis, euro crisis, youth unemployment crisis, southern europes many issues and a burgeoning political geographic area where even you couldnt have foreseen, with many of those member states in some level of crisis.

You are too busy flicking the finger at the UK to look and see the comparative chaos around you, the major problems are happening on your doorstep on your watch, thats the real irony.

We are discussing the UK current financial situation....this is the reason I have not mentioned the "youth unemployment" in "Southern Europe". It's not relevant to this particular discussion. Similarly it's the reason I haven't mentioned the price of cheese in Finland.

Why don't you explain the reasons why you say I'm making things up instead of conflating your post with spurious and not all-together related topics?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Hey guys - HT has made a prediction. If that's not a buy sell then I don't know what is. We've all seen his predictions fail (100% record as far as I can see). Maybe he should reign in the emotional hyperbole as it makes him sound like a sulky teenager. I want my way - boo hoo.

That's fine. Im not an economic expert, my skills lie elsewhere . But, Im struggling to see how a collapsing economy will be turned around by triggering Article 50 or a big company pulls out. Care to explain this to me?

 

[BigGully]

We are discussing the UK current financial situation....this is the reason I have not mentioned the "youth unemployment" in "Southern Europe". It's not relevant to this particular discussion. Similarly it's the reason I haven't mentioned the price of cheese in Finland.

Why don't you explain the reasons why you say I'm making things up instead of conflating your post with spurious and not all-together related topics?

Sterling isnt 10% weaker than it is now .... there simple.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

HT you seem to have an odd relationship with your homeland

I like somethings, I don't like other things. Which is exactly my feelings towards most stuff in life. What's odd about this?