[Politics] Brexit

[Mo Gosfield]

I agree, and I voted leave. There was a commitment to a referendum in the Tory manifesto, to lance the boil, but as i have said previously, Cameron had no belief that he would win an outright majority, and this would have been the first commitment to be jettisoned in coalition talks with the LibDems. He was as gobsmacked as anyone to have a majority. That said, he had no need to call it so quickly, and before he had made any kind of preliminary, behind the scenes discussions with his EU counterparts about what kind of reforms he was looking for, and they would be willing to grant. His tour around the capitals, and then the grand meeting when he made that triumphalist press conference declaring he had obtained pretty much sod all was embarrassing in the extreme. Massive regrets all round from both parties I imagine.

He sold this country so far down down the river, he effectively swept his own career into oblivion.
During his tenure, Cameron lost 80% of all cases he took to the European Court of Justice and any semblance of control we had over EU affairs was diminishing year on year on year. Over the last 20 years, we had opposed new EU laws and measures on 72 occasions. We had been outvoted 72 times on the Council of the EU. Cameron was so desperate to come back with something that he agreed to a red card deal. This gave us the opportunity to object to any new law or measure emanating from the EU, providing we could find 14 more member states to support us ( i.e a majority )....cue....pink animals flying past windows.
In return for this fantastic concession, Cameron surrended our right as a nation, to give or withold our consent to future treaties converting the European bloc into a Eurostate. At that fateful moment of committing us to having absolutely no say or control over our future, he was a dead man walking. If the Remain campaign had won, this one single moment of utter and foolish recklessness would have condemned this country to years of civil unrest and ultimately, complete anarchy.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Mervyn King, esteemed former Governor of the Bank of England says that the falling pound...." is a welcome change "....but I don't suppose many of the financial experts on here will agree.

 

[studio150]

Mervyn King, esteemed former Governor of the Bank of England says that the falling pound...." is a welcome change "....but I don't suppose many of the financial experts on here will agree.

Given that he us teaching in New York he will not see the 5 or 6p per litre rise in pump prices that we are likely to see by the end if the month. Nor will he see the increase of 16% or more on imported goods if we default to World Trade. Which will all mean RPI rising and out stripping wage inflation so we all become poorer.
Now that myst be a welcome change

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Given that he us teaching in New York he will not see the 5 or 6p per litre rise in pump prices that we are likely to see by the end if the month. Nor will he see the increase of 16% or more on imported goods if we default to World Trade. Which will all mean RPI rising and out stripping wage inflation so we all become poorer.
Now that myst be a welcome change

No one said it was going to be easy.
This will be seen as a minor blip against the fallout from the demise of the EU, which many don't seem to be building into their plans.

 

[Gwylan]

Given that he us teaching in New York he will not see the 5 or 6p per litre rise in pump prices that we are likely to see by the end if the month. Nor will he see the increase of 16% or more on imported goods if we default to World Trade. Which will all mean RPI rising and out stripping wage inflation so we all become poorer.

You forget that the falling pound means our exports become competitive, we attract more foreign visitors and overseas money, the stock market is boosted, so there's more in our pension pots and people who are paid in dollars or euros will be better off.

Even things like a rise in import costs, while causing short term pain, will mean opportunities for British firms to undercut foreign competition. And if the price of petrol keeps rising, people will have to use cars less and shops will have to source more food locally. With the trend towards electric cars, this will be less of an issue in future.

The decision to leave the EU was always going to cause a bit of short term pain - the benefits will be felt in the long term

 

[portslade seagull]

My comment was a straightforward statement of fact following comments from a number of constitutional experts both in the UK and abroad. It was not a wailing and a gnashing of teeth and an "if only we had needed a 60% majority....".

So stop crowing, particularly when it is not appropriate to crow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fact of what someone who cannot accept the vote ( the person who made the comment whoever that might have been). I wasn't crowing either just stating the fact that the vote was a no.
I wonder whether you would have stated this FACT if the vote had been the other way by the same margin I doubt it

 

[portslade seagull]

Given that he us teaching in New York he will not see the 5 or 6p per litre rise in pump prices that we are likely to see by the end if the month. Nor will he see the increase of 16% or more on imported goods if we default to World Trade. Which will all mean RPI rising and out stripping wage inflation so we all become poorer.
Now that myst be a welcome change

Since the banking crisis most people have been lucky to get a wage rise, some of the unluckier ones even saw there wages cut in real terms.

 

[El Presidente]

You forget that the falling pound means our exports become competitive, we attract more foreign visitors and overseas money, the stock market is boosted, so there's more in our pension pots and people who are paid in dollars or euros will be better off.

Even things like a rise in import costs, while causing short term pain, will mean opportunities for British firms to undercut foreign competition. And if the price of petrol keeps rising, people will have to use cars less and shops will have to source more food locally. With the trend towards electric cars, this will be less of an issue in future.

The decision to leave the EU was always going to cause a bit of short term pain - the benefits will be felt in the long term

1: When the pound fell to similar levels post 2008 recession there was no major boost to exports, we are not a manufacturing economy. If you can show me any country that has had sustained economic growth as a result of currency deflation I'd love to see the evidence.

2: Import costs hit the poor and elderly disproportionately higher because they spend a higher proportion of their income on fuel and food.

3: Most electricity is generated from gas fuelled power stations. Gas is traded in € so will also be hit by the devaluation of sterling.

4: The pensions deficit rose by £100 billion in August alone (following a significant rise in July) as a consequence of the BoE's emergency measures post Brexit vote.

http://pwc.blogs.com/press_room/201...-a-month-according-to-pwcs-skyval-index-.html

5: Shops won't be sourcing food locally, as (a) Agricultural prices will rise due to abolition of EU farming subsidies (b) our climate is inappropriate for many types of fruit and veg (c) lower supply of fruit pickers due to reduction in migration (d) consumers at the poorer end of the market will switch to cheaper foodstuffs.

6: The proportion of people who are paid in €\$ is tiny compared to the overall economy so won't impact upon economic growth.

I've always said that there was an argument for Brexit in terms of issues of sovereignty, democratic deficit and migration. If you consider such issues to be paramount then voting to leave was totally logical.

There has never been a good argument to leave from an economic perspective, which is why no credible economist has put forward such a viewpoint.




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[Hastings gull]

1: When the pound fell to similar levels post 2008 recession there was no major boost to exports, we are not a manufacturing economy. If you can show me any country that has had sustained economic growth as a result of currency deflation I'd love to see the evidence.

2: Import costs hit the poor and elderly disproportionately higher because they spend a higher proportion of their income on fuel and food.

3: Most electricity is generated from gas fuelled power stations. Gas is traded in € so will also be hit by the devaluation of sterling.

4: The pensions deficit rose by £100 billion in August alone (following a significant rise in July) as a consequence of the BoE's emergency measures post Brexit vote.

http://pwc.blogs.com/press_room/201...-a-month-according-to-pwcs-skyval-index-.html

5: Shops won't be sourcing food locally, as (a) Agricultural prices will rise due to abolition of EU farming subsidies (b) our climate is inappropriate for many types of fruit and veg (c) lower supply of fruit pickers due to reduction in migration (d) consumers at the poorer end of the market will switch to cheaper foodstuffs.

6: The proportion of people who are paid in €\$ is tiny compared to the overall economy so won't impact upon economic growth.

I've always said that there was an argument for Brexit in terms of issues of sovereignty, democratic deficit and migration. If you consider such issues to be paramount then voting to leave was totally logical.

There has never been a good argument to leave from an economic perspective, which is why no credible economist has put forward such a viewpoint.





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A very good post, if I may so. I am not an economist by any standard, but do feel that your points in number 5 are rather OTT, and smack of desperation. Has the government not said that the subsidies will remain, paid here, and as for the argument that we cannot grow many types of fruit and veg -this is surely not true. Whilst we cannot grow the more exotic types of fruit where a hot climate is needed, how many veg types typically eaten regularly cannot be grown here.

 

[CHAPPERS]

how many veg types typically eaten regularly cannot be grown here.

Take a walk around a supermarket and find out.

 

[Hastings gull]

Take a walk around a supermarket and find out.

I could do better -used to work at an open market.

 

[Mental Lental]

If you can show me any country that has had sustained economic growth as a result of currency deflation I'd love to see the evidence.

Japan are really trying to rescue their manufacturing economy by deliberately weakening the yen. Doesn't look like it's working though.

 

[El Presidente]

A very good post, if I may so. I am not an economist by any standard, but do feel that your points in number 5 are rather OTT, and smack of desperation. Has the government not said that the subsidies will remain, paid here, and as for the argument that we cannot grow many types of fruit and veg -this is surely not true. Whilst we cannot grow the more exotic types of fruit where a hot climate is needed, how many veg types typically eaten regularly cannot be grown here.

1: The government has committed itself to maintaining subsidies (and HE research funding) until 2020. Given that Article 50 will be invoked in March 2017, and therefore exit won't take place formally until March 2019, it's not a long term commitment.

2: I was responding to [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] 'a claim that we could do a 'Good Life' and source locally. Tea,coffee, bananas, lemon, lime, grapes, blueberries etc are all from overseas. If the UK economy is to be successful it should be through using intellectual resources rather than agriculture surely?


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[Hastings gull]

1: The government has committed itself to maintaining subsidies (and HE research funding) until 2020. Given that Article 50 will be invoked in March 2017, and therefore exit won't take place formally until March 2019, it's not a long term commitment.

2: I was responding to [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] 'a claim that we could do a 'Good Life' and source locally. Tea,coffee, bananas, lemon, lime, grapes, blueberries etc are all from overseas. If the UK economy is to be successful it should be through using intellectual resources rather than agriculture surely?

Thanks for that. I see you have now included for good measure tea and coffee but your original post only made mention of fruit and veg. Of course we will not be able to grow certain types, but the clear implication of your post was that we would really be struggling. You may well be right -time will tell.

 

[Pinkie Brown]

how many veg types typically eaten regularly cannot be grown here.

The issue will be 'who can pick those nice home grown cabbage, cauliflower, etc. The task is mostly carried out by those Johnny Foreigner types. Those not wanted in the UK by many. Still as Andrea states, there will be plenty of Brits who will be willing to roll their sleeves up and work the land. Sorted.

 

[Gwylan]

1: When the pound fell to similar levels post 2008 recession there was no major boost to exports, we are not a manufacturing economy. If you can show me any country that has had sustained economic growth as a result of currency deflation I'd love to see the evidence.

There was no rethinking of the economy however - Brexit will force many changes on people - and we will have to start being a manufacturing economy again

Most electricity is generated from gas fuelled power stations. Gas is traded in € so will also be hit by the devaluation of sterling.

True. But last year, 40% of electricity was generated by nuclear and renewable energy - this is going up year on year. I expect that 2016 will show that most of electricity is non-carbon powered. When Hinkley comes on board this will be higher still. Companies will have to think more broadly: there's a massive amount of geothermal energy in Iceland and they've just started marketing that to datacentre providers in the rest of Europe - that's about 2% of our power demands.

Shops won't be sourcing food locally, as (a) Agricultural prices will rise due to abolition of EU farming subsidies (b) our climate is inappropriate for many types of fruit and veg (c) lower supply of fruit pickers due to reduction in migration (d) consumers at the poorer end of the market will switch to cheaper foodstuffs.

We're about 76% self-sufficient as it is, it wouldn't take a huge amount of effort to boost that higher. We will able to target farming subsidies better - they go on farming land, not on food production at the moment. I'm not convinced that we will get a reduction in migration - I certainly hope not. I voted out of the EU but approve of free movement

I've always said that there was an argument for Brexit in terms of issues of sovereignty, democratic deficit and migration. If you consider such issues to be paramount then voting to leave was totally logical.

There has never been a good argument to leave from an economic perspective, which is why no credible economist has put forward such a viewpoint.

Really?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/06/22/brexit-economic-case/#7174231f374b

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/22/the-uk-economy-will-perform-better-outside-the-eu

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/21/11974600/brexit-eu-euro-disaster

I'm certainly not saying it's going to be easy and it's going to be less easy if the headbangers in the Tories get their way. To lose financial passporting would be a big problem for the economy and to halt migration would be even worse. The benefits will be seen in the long term - there will be short term pain - but it entails rethinking about the way we live, we work, we travel and we eat. But it's only going to be a disaster if we want it to be

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

1: When the pound fell to similar levels post 2008 recession there was no major boost to exports, we are not a manufacturing economy. If you can show me any country that has had sustained economic growth as a result of currency deflation I'd love to see the evidence.

2: Import costs hit the poor and elderly disproportionately higher because they spend a higher proportion of their income on fuel and food.

3: Most electricity is generated from gas fuelled power stations. Gas is traded in € so will also be hit by the devaluation of sterling.

4: The pensions deficit rose by £100 billion in August alone (following a significant rise in July) as a consequence of the BoE's emergency measures post Brexit vote.

http://pwc.blogs.com/press_room/201...-a-month-according-to-pwcs-skyval-index-.html

5: Shops won't be sourcing food locally, as (a) Agricultural prices will rise due to abolition of EU farming subsidies (b) our climate is inappropriate for many types of fruit and veg (c) lower supply of fruit pickers due to reduction in migration (d) consumers at the poorer end of the market will switch to cheaper foodstuffs.

6: The proportion of people who are paid in €\$ is tiny compared to the overall economy so won't impact upon economic growth.

I've always said that there was an argument for Brexit in terms of issues of sovereignty, democratic deficit and migration. If you consider such issues to be paramount then voting to leave was totally logical.

There has never been a good argument to leave from an economic perspective, which is why no credible economist has put forward such a viewpoint.




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Thanks for posting this as it saves me reacting to [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] s cloud-cuckoo la-la land theoretical assessment of the UK's future. We're better off for a collapsing currency FFS; I'll have a pint of what he's been drinking please. .

 

[LamieRobertson]

A very good post, if I may so. I am not an economist by any standard, but do feel that your points in number 5 are rather OTT, and smack of desperation. Has the government not said that the subsidies will remain, paid here, and as for the argument that we cannot grow many types of fruit and veg -this is surely not true. Whilst we cannot grow the more exotic types of fruit where a hot climate is needed, how many veg types typically eaten regularly cannot be grown here.

Very true we have a good supply of carrots
....of course no cheap foreign labour to pick some of the crops of veg we grow

 

[Gwylan]

Thanks for posting this as it saves me reacting to [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] s cloud-cuckoo la-la land theoretical assessment of the UK's future. We're better off for a collapsing currency FFS; I'll have a pint of what he's been drinking please. .

As pointed out earlier, this is a view held by the ex--governor of the BoE. It's scarcely la-la thinking.

 

[El Presidente]

Patrick Minford, head of Economists for Brexit, is my ex head of department. He was one of the architects of the poll tax and was still arguing for it when he left.