GoldWithFalmer
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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
We never had enough fields to not rely on imports.
Interesting article in the FT (will be in tomorrow's print edition)....Brexiteers perhaps shouldn't read....
Four days after Brexit, is there any way back?
A petition calling on MPs to overturn last week’s Brexit decision is up to 3.3m signatures and counting. Young people, three-quarters of whom voted to stay, have turned to social media to voice anger and dismay that their future has been decided by retired baby boomers. Former prime minister Tony Blair has suggested a second referendum is possible and, with financial markets shaky and Brussels already closing doors on Britain, buyer’s remorse may well spread. So could the nation change its mind? Is there any way back? Well, anything is possible, but, as things stand, one can make only two statements with confidence. And, no, they are not consistent.
The first is that the Brexiters are about to discover that unravelling Britain’s relationship with the EU will be costly and hugely disruptive. Politically, legally and constitutionally it will be immeasurably harder than imagined in the bluff statements of Outers such as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.
The second is that something truly extraordinary would have to happen before parliament — which remains the sovereign decision maker on the matter — decided to overturn the will of the 17.4m people who voted for Brexit in the referendum. A few million signatures on a petition will not do it. The absolute minimum requirement would be a general election victory for a party that had promised explicitly to think again.
After the party …
Leading Brexiters have been celebrating what Nigel Farage has called “independence day” and Boris Johnson is planning his bid for 10 Downing Street. Now the hangover looms.
The more thoughtful among the Outs have realised that tearing up four decades of foreign and economic policy will not be as easy as they thought. The obstacles are formidable, even if you put aside the determination of some EU states to make things as difficult as possible. Back in Britain the leavers have yet to agree even on when to trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty, which would start the clock ticking on a two-year process of withdrawal. More fundamentally, two-thirds of the MPs who must put the decision into law were on the Remain side of the argument. Few of them would be prepared to defy last week’s vote, but the referendum said nothing about what should replace full membership. At present a majority would probably back some form of association agreement that would keep Britain in the single market. But this is explicitly at odds with the leadership of the Leave campaign. The result could be political paralysis. Parliament must approve any eventual settlement.
The differences do not stop there. One argument deployed by the leavers is that money would be freed up to spend on the NHS and other public services. But the Outs also include a large group of rightwing market liberals who want to cut public spending and reduce taxes. Someone is going to be disappointed.
It is hard to see how these conflicts will be resolved — particularly if Tory party activists send Mr Johnson to Downing Street. The former London mayor is loathed by a significant segment of Tory MPs and would struggle to command loyalty in the Commons.
The problems do not stop at Westminster. EU membership is embedded in the devolution settlements for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Disabling EU law in those jurisdictions would require the consent of the Scottish parliament and the Northern Ireland assembly. Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has already made it plain that the Scottish National party-dominated parliament will refuse. A constitutional crisis looks inevitable as does a second referendum that, this time, could see Scotland leave the UK.
Second thoughts?
So if it is all so difficult why not think again? Well, most obviously when parliament legislated for a referendum it made clear that it would respect the outcome. The vote was won by the Brexit side and discarding the votes of the majority by any stretch would be an extraordinary constitutional act. Sure, other European nations have reversed themselves on EU issues but they have different constitutions and there was far less at stake.
The Tory Outs are not about to change their minds. So any reconsideration would require the election of a new government with a clear mandate to negotiate a new arrangement with the other 27 EU members and put the outcome to a second referendum. In other circumstances this might be imaginable — just. But the Labour party is at present led by Jeremy Corbyn, a politician widely regarded as unelectable and, anyway, at best lukewarm about the EU. The weekend mass resignations of members of his shadow cabinet might lead eventually to Mr Corbyn’s departure, but it a huge leap from there to imagine a new leader of the opposition sweeping to victory in a general election.
And even this assumes that the other 27 members would be willing to stand by for another couple of years while Britain argued with itself as the expense of gridlock in Brussels. Yes, even at this late stage Germany’s Angela Merkel would probably like Britain to stay. And a change of heart would be possible even after Britain had invoked Article 50. It is the politics that gets in the way.
Anything is possible
So pro-Europeans should give up? No. So as long as a British government does not trigger Article 50, Britain remains an EU member. The political forces unleashed by this referendum are unprecedented and unpredictable. It is far from fanciful to imagine that the next two years or so will see the complete recasting of the nation’s politics, quite possibly with the creation of a new, centrist, pro-European party. So those who want Britain to stay close to its own continent could think the unthinkable and work to make it thinkable.
Four days after Brexit, is there any way back?
A petition calling on MPs to overturn last week’s Brexit decision is up to 3.3m signatures and counting. Young people, three-quarters of whom voted to stay, have turned to social media to voice anger and dismay that their future has been decided by retired baby boomers. Former prime minister Tony Blair has suggested a second referendum is possible and, with financial markets shaky and Brussels already closing doors on Britain, buyer’s remorse may well spread. So could the nation change its mind? Is there any way back? Well, anything is possible, but, as things stand, one can make only two statements with confidence. And, no, they are not consistent.
The first is that the Brexiters are about to discover that unravelling Britain’s relationship with the EU will be costly and hugely disruptive. Politically, legally and constitutionally it will be immeasurably harder than imagined in the bluff statements of Outers such as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.
The second is that something truly extraordinary would have to happen before parliament — which remains the sovereign decision maker on the matter — decided to overturn the will of the 17.4m people who voted for Brexit in the referendum. A few million signatures on a petition will not do it. The absolute minimum requirement would be a general election victory for a party that had promised explicitly to think again.
After the party …
Leading Brexiters have been celebrating what Nigel Farage has called “independence day” and Boris Johnson is planning his bid for 10 Downing Street. Now the hangover looms.
The more thoughtful among the Outs have realised that tearing up four decades of foreign and economic policy will not be as easy as they thought. The obstacles are formidable, even if you put aside the determination of some EU states to make things as difficult as possible. Back in Britain the leavers have yet to agree even on when to trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty, which would start the clock ticking on a two-year process of withdrawal. More fundamentally, two-thirds of the MPs who must put the decision into law were on the Remain side of the argument. Few of them would be prepared to defy last week’s vote, but the referendum said nothing about what should replace full membership. At present a majority would probably back some form of association agreement that would keep Britain in the single market. But this is explicitly at odds with the leadership of the Leave campaign. The result could be political paralysis. Parliament must approve any eventual settlement.
The differences do not stop there. One argument deployed by the leavers is that money would be freed up to spend on the NHS and other public services. But the Outs also include a large group of rightwing market liberals who want to cut public spending and reduce taxes. Someone is going to be disappointed.
It is hard to see how these conflicts will be resolved — particularly if Tory party activists send Mr Johnson to Downing Street. The former London mayor is loathed by a significant segment of Tory MPs and would struggle to command loyalty in the Commons.
The problems do not stop at Westminster. EU membership is embedded in the devolution settlements for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Disabling EU law in those jurisdictions would require the consent of the Scottish parliament and the Northern Ireland assembly. Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has already made it plain that the Scottish National party-dominated parliament will refuse. A constitutional crisis looks inevitable as does a second referendum that, this time, could see Scotland leave the UK.
Second thoughts?
So if it is all so difficult why not think again? Well, most obviously when parliament legislated for a referendum it made clear that it would respect the outcome. The vote was won by the Brexit side and discarding the votes of the majority by any stretch would be an extraordinary constitutional act. Sure, other European nations have reversed themselves on EU issues but they have different constitutions and there was far less at stake.
The Tory Outs are not about to change their minds. So any reconsideration would require the election of a new government with a clear mandate to negotiate a new arrangement with the other 27 EU members and put the outcome to a second referendum. In other circumstances this might be imaginable — just. But the Labour party is at present led by Jeremy Corbyn, a politician widely regarded as unelectable and, anyway, at best lukewarm about the EU. The weekend mass resignations of members of his shadow cabinet might lead eventually to Mr Corbyn’s departure, but it a huge leap from there to imagine a new leader of the opposition sweeping to victory in a general election.
And even this assumes that the other 27 members would be willing to stand by for another couple of years while Britain argued with itself as the expense of gridlock in Brussels. Yes, even at this late stage Germany’s Angela Merkel would probably like Britain to stay. And a change of heart would be possible even after Britain had invoked Article 50. It is the politics that gets in the way.
Anything is possible
So pro-Europeans should give up? No. So as long as a British government does not trigger Article 50, Britain remains an EU member. The political forces unleashed by this referendum are unprecedented and unpredictable. It is far from fanciful to imagine that the next two years or so will see the complete recasting of the nation’s politics, quite possibly with the creation of a new, centrist, pro-European party. So those who want Britain to stay close to its own continent could think the unthinkable and work to make it thinkable.
Was not Was
Loitering with intent
- Jul 31, 2003
- 1,607
It's certainly a major one for Brexiters. But the Leave vote by area is in inverse proportion to the level of immigration.
Doesn't this mean that the issue is actually *fear* of immigration, not actual immigration?
You gonna have to get your head round this, the Remainers said all this prior to the referendum and still the Leave vote won, I suspect nothing in particular will happen to food prices, they can be volatile at any time for a myriad of reasons.
You will soon find something increases in price and blame it on Brexit it will make you feel a tad better, but better still get over it and move on we will be fine .........................
Jo Cox is turning into the new Diana! Before a racist fascist killed her no one knew of her. OK, Happy with that? We ALL know it , we don't (leavers) ALL condone the despicable act, we deplore it just like the LEE Rigby murder.
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,981
I thought that these were amplified and isolated incidents until a German neighbour informed me tonight that she has been told that she's going to be 'kicked out soon". It's really upsetting now.
GoldWithFalmer
Seaweed! Seaweed!
It's not good-
Staying in the EU is all well and good but the core issue of immigration and freedom of movement must be at the forefront of any EU future policy changes.
The rise of the far right across Europe is a consequence of the current EU policy of freedom of movement.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,274
George Osborne is set to make a statement before start of business on the LSE.....
Chancellor George Osborne's absence from the Sunday political programmes, and the post-referendum debate more generally, has been the subject of a lot of talk.
The Guardian reports that he will make a statement early on Monday morning in an attempt to reassure financial markets and avoid a repeat of Friday's volatility.
The newspaper quoted a Treasury spokesman saying Mr Osborne would set out how the government intended to “protect the national interest”.
Not sure if it is going to help much, the first couple of hours could be a bloodbath.
Chancellor George Osborne's absence from the Sunday political programmes, and the post-referendum debate more generally, has been the subject of a lot of talk.
The Guardian reports that he will make a statement early on Monday morning in an attempt to reassure financial markets and avoid a repeat of Friday's volatility.
The newspaper quoted a Treasury spokesman saying Mr Osborne would set out how the government intended to “protect the national interest”.
Not sure if it is going to help much, the first couple of hours could be a bloodbath.
Do you honestly think that a) that is likely 'that she will be kicked out' or b) that this represents a likely mindset of Brexiteers.
It seems more than likely that whoever said it (in what context was it said) would of said 'you should be kicked out' months ago, its just an ignorant person being extremely rude to someone from somewhere else.
GoldWithFalmer
Seaweed! Seaweed!
It was a disgrace and one would hope an example is made with any sentence with the full force of the law deter others..
JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
He's got a bloody cheek considering he's been front and centre of Project fear talking up economic Armageddon ....
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,981
I always had issues about unrestricted movements, especially the sudden effects on public services. But people already here and doing no harm to anyone- it's not fair.
yxee
Well-known member
George Osborne is the 65,000,000th most suitable Briton to reassure people right now.
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,981
a) No I don't
b) No I don't
But the point is that people should not have to endure this from anyone. It spreads fear.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
I must have repeated this on at least 5 threads, that is because they are not a government!
I tend to agree but if you have identified the pressures on services and housing etc. then you have to be consistent and acknowledge the consequences of it.
I have a couple of quite beautiful neighbours one Italian and one Spanish, they have since had a child and both work hard and rent the house, they're lovely.
I just wouldn't want them to have to move or even begin to feel insecure for a moment, but perhaps that is easy for me to say as I am not on the waiting list to access local housing, I am guessing that this is multiplied a million times nationally.
portslade seagull
Well-known member
Agree with you, this was never about those already here it was an attempt to limit the numbers coming in the future
There's always going to be a minority of twats on either side, unfortunately. Similar to this:
[tweet]746961150668079104[/tweet]
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
All those calling for a 2nd referendum and/or a general election need to consider this chart showing support for Leave in Labour constituencies. We know that a huge swathe of Labour voters switched to UKIP in the last elections...if you ignore their views or try to alienate them then you run the risk of UKIP gaining more MPs at the expense of Labour when UKIP should now be consigned to the history books.
portslade seagull
Well-known member
Let's hope no one takes it to far like poor Jo