[Politics] Brexit

[gregbrighton]

It would be madness if we left the EU. Stay in and help fight Britain's corner!

 

[BigGully]

It would be madness if we left the EU. Stay in and help fight Britain's corner!

Against what, other European member states that you wish us to stay with

 

[pastafarian]

It would be madness if we left the EU. Stay in and help fight Britain's corner!

listen to your other self once in a while

Exactly. The EU institutions are not there for the people. It's there for the rich elite to manipulate the politicians to serve their own financial interests and line their own pockets.

We need to take control of our own borders and make our own laws without Brussels looking over our shoulder.

UK out of EU. Scotland out of UK. Perfick!

 

[gregbrighton]

Well here it is - the coup de grâce

Treasury claims – The headline figure

The Treasury looked at three different scenarios for Brexit, each with different levels of tariffs and different predicted drops to economic growth. Here are the key forecasts for each.

1) The Norway option

What is it: Britain would remain part of the European Economic Area, like Norway, with access to the single market but still have to accept certain EU rules like free movement and directives agreed in Brussels.

GDP: 3.8% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £2,600
Annual lost tax revenues: £20bn

2) The Canada option

What is it: Britain would sign a bilateral free trade agreement with the EU, like the one Canada has negotiated – an example cited by Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, as a possible option.

GDP: 6.2% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £4,300
Annual lost tax revenue: £36bn

3) The World Trade Organisation option

What is it: Britain would not sign a standalone trade deal with the EU but instead rely tariff levels set by the World Trade Organistion.

GDP: 7.5% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £5,200
Annual lost tax revenue: £45bn

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...easury-forecasts/?cid=sf24558416&sf24558416=1

It's clear Britainn would be worse off with any other system than with the trading and economic model we have now.

 

[pastafarian]

Well here it is - the coup de grâce

Treasury claims – The headline figure

The Treasury looked at three different scenarios for Brexit, each with different levels of tariffs and different predicted drops to economic growth. Here are the key forecasts for each.

1) The Norway option

What is it: Britain would remain part of the European Economic Area, like Norway, with access to the single market but still have to accept certain EU rules like free movement and directives agreed in Brussels.

GDP: 3.8% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £2,600
Annual lost tax revenues: £20bn

2) The Canada option

What is it: Britain would sign a bilateral free trade agreement with the EU, like the one Canada has negotiated – an example cited by Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, as a possible option.

GDP: 6.2% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £4,300
Annual lost tax revenue: £36bn

3) The World Trade Organisation option

What is it: Britain would not sign a standalone trade deal with the EU but instead rely tariff levels set by the World Trade Organistion.

GDP: 7.5% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £5,200
Annual lost tax revenue: £45bn

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...easury-forecasts/?cid=sf24558416&sf24558416=1

well dont do a Norway option,dont do a Canada option and dont do a WTO option

lets have a bespoke British option,


good to see the George Osborne fan club gaining new members everywhere today though

(makes note for another day)

 

[gregbrighton]

listen to your other self once in a while

I changed my mind. What is more important? Keeping immigrants out and the 'sovereignty fantasy' or engaging in a modern world trading and building our economy within international frameworks? I say, engage with Europe and the World. The UK will lose out if the hard-right convince the nation to retreat and isolate itself from our trading partners.

 

[WhingForPresident]

listen to your other self once in a while

Osborne is a nasty venomous man along with the nasty venomous Conservative Party.

It's a terrible, terrible prospect from the esteemed trustworthy chancellor.

 

[beorhthelm]

George Osborne says income tax would go up 8p under a Brexit! I mean who would seriously want that? Families hit by losing £4.5k would surely struggle with a tax rise like that!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-will-cost-families-4300-a-year-politics-live

jumping the shark with that, 15 years of inflation and GDC rises will need a 8p increase? or thats just a comparison in todays money for a cost of £36bn. i'm surprised by the sudden support for Mr Osborne, maybe we can look down the sofa again.

 

[gregbrighton]

jumping the shark with that, 15 years of inflation and GDC rises will need a 8p increase? or thats just a comparison in todays money for a cost of £36bn. i'm surprised by the sudden support for Mr Osborne, maybe we can look down the sofa again.

I don't support Osborne. He is a nasty weasel but I do take notice of the Treasury, in this instance.

 

[beorhthelm]

I don't support Osborne. He is a nasty weasel but I do take notice of the Treasury, in this instance.

of course, the "nasty weasel" isn't doing anything here, its all his department working completely independently and without any bias.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I don't support Osborne. He is a nasty weasel but I do take notice of the Treasury, in this instance.

Good to see another person has objectively weighed everything up and made a considered decision. Good work.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

It would be madness if we left the EU. Stay in and help fight Britain's corner!

two favorite words used by inner's COULD AND MAY
regards
DR

 

[pastafarian]

The UK will lose out if the hard-right convince the nation to retreat and isolate itself from our trading partners.

this scenario is only going on inside your head.

I say, engage with Europe and the World.

exactly what the brexit campaign says on the tin

Brexit propose to trade with the EU and trade globally free from Brussels interference including with our commonwealth friends.

one half of you at least realises this

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

I changed my mind. What is more important? Keeping immigrants out and the 'sovereignty fantasy' or engaging in a modern world trading and building our economy within international frameworks? I say, engage with Europe and the World. The UK will lose out if the hard-right convince the nation to retreat and isolate itself from our trading partners.

give your head a wobble FFS
regards
DR

 

[sten_super]

"Just in the last week, we’ve had the IMF, we’ve had the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England, we’ve had the OECD, we’ve had businesses like Lloyds Bank, we’ve had academics come out and all say the same thing [Brexit would harm the economy.] I would say to those arguing we should leave, where is your document? Where is your assessment? Where is your economic analysis? Where is a single ally or trading partner or credible international organisation that thinks it is a good idea for Britain to leave the European Union?

I'm no Osbourne fan, and I have some issues with the way that the Treasury has gone about this analysis, but this is a great line from the Chancellor.

yes. im saying that a) its not as much as they want you to think, b) ignores the normal margin of error in GDP predictions (see last autumns billions in the sofa) and c) excludes any increasing costs of being in the EU. its a small financial cost weighed up against ceding powers to a foreign government.

Your point b), and I've seen it made by others as well, slightly mis-interprets the analysis. Analysing the difference between scenarios, versus analysing the actual levels themselves, was explained nicely by one of the FT writers on twitter.

edit to add: Robert Peston also has a decent (and accessible) write up of his thoughts on facebook here.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I'm no Osbourne fan, and I have some issues with the way that the Treasury has gone about this analysis, but this is a great line from the Chancellor.



Your point b), and I've seen it made by others as well, slightly mis-interprets the analysis. Analysing the difference between scenarios, versus analysing the actual levels themselves, was explained nicely by one of the FT writers on twitter.

edit to add: Robert Peston also has a decent (and accessible) write up of his thoughts on facebook here.

All these people are well paid, they don't have the foggiest what it's like for people down at the bottom.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

If the IMF, the Bank of England and the treasury couldn't forecast the crash in 2008 and seem completely incapable of estimating anything farther out than three days I am struggling to believe that suddenly there is a concrete hang your hat on it prediction that we'll all be precisely £4,340 worse off par annum in four years time.

It is clearly ridiculous to predict something like this with such elan. Besides if we were ALL four grand worse off then at least we'd all be the same....oh, hang on, except for hose on the living wage who would proportionately far better off than the rest of us.

 

[gregbrighton]

give your head a wobble FFS
regards
DR

Don't get your tutu in a twist now.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

If the IMF, the Bank of England and the treasury couldn't forecast the crash in 2008 and seem completely incapable of estimating anything farther out than three days I am struggling to believe that suddenly there is a concrete hang your hat on it prediction that we'll all be precisely £4,340 worse off par annum in four years time.

It is clearly ridiculous to predict something like this with such elan. Besides if we were ALL four grand worse off then at least we'd all be the same....oh, hang on, except for hose on the living wage who would proportionately far better off than the rest of us.

Forecasts, forecasts and more forecasts, it does my head in. The biggest problem with any argument for Remain, is that what we see going on in the EU is real, it is pointing to our future, one where the EU seizes more control from one side and the other side a constant battle to protect our culture, our way of life because of the import of other peoples political, cultural and religious problems. The EU is out of control.

 

[BigGully]

I remember running my small business in the very early 90's, no one told me that interest rates would shortly go 15% as we shadowed the DM and just prior to that Major assured me to buy property its still a good investment, of course both crashed, thank you very much !!!

I recall the times I went to the bank manager, my overdraft creaking and Business Plan all completed, it was difficult to make any of it look any good, but I succeeded quite logically although always underpinned by skewed assumptions and projections and always absolutely always by year 3 I was back in decent profit, I think I even believed it myself, but none of transpired that way, me, John Majors advisor' and my bank manger were all pissing in the wind, just bluffing each other really.

I smile when I hear any budget or financial projection from any Government or economist that show financial improvements more than a couple of months upstream, it reminds me of my own flawed and wishful thinking Business Plans way back then ..........