[Politics] Brexit

[WATFORD zero]

Have you got links for that? The reason I ask is that covid costs appear to be around the £400 billion mark, while total exports to the EU were £293 billion in 2019, so what you're saying is that the cost of Brexit is something like 3 times the total exports pre-Brexit. That seems impossible. So if you have a link, I would like to see how the figures are worked out.

COVID-19 cost tracker - NAO overview

Our interactive tool brings together data from across the UK government on its costs in response to the pandemic.

www.nao.org.uk

I'm quite busy, but briefly

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-the-uk-economy-than-covid-pandemic-obr-says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/the-u-k-is-being-consumed-by-brexit-more-than-covid?leadSource=uverify wall
https://internetretailing.net/indus...pected-to-cost-more-long-term-research-24321/
https://www.businessleader.co.uk/has-brexit-cost-uk-businesses-as-much-as-the-covid-19-pandemic/
https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/28/brexit-twice-as-bad-for-britains-economy-than-covid-15502679/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...xit-now-hitting-uks-economy-harder-than-covid
https://www.cityam.com/brexit-and-p...ally-now-rising-faster-than-covid-disruption/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/costs-brexit-covid-uk-economy-102141515.html
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764

(Some of the articles are from a year ago when the OBR said the cost of Brexit first overtook the cost of Covid)

 

[dsr-burnley]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-the-uk-economy-than-covid-pandemic-obr-says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/the-u-k-is-being-consumed-by-brexit-more-than-covid?leadSource=uverify wall
https://internetretailing.net/indus...pected-to-cost-more-long-term-research-24321/
https://www.businessleader.co.uk/has-brexit-cost-uk-businesses-as-much-as-the-covid-19-pandemic/
https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/28/brexit-twice-as-bad-for-britains-economy-than-covid-15502679/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...xit-now-hitting-uks-economy-harder-than-covid
https://www.cityam.com/brexit-and-p...ally-now-rising-faster-than-covid-disruption/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/costs-brexit-covid-uk-economy-102141515.html
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764


(Some of the articles are from a year ago when the OBR said the cost of Brexit first overtook the cost of Covid)

Yes, but I'm not actually all that interested in Richard Hughes' predictions, either of the long term 4% GDP damage or of the predicted inflation rate of 4.4%. I don't deal in out-of-date predictions.

It has been said that Brexit has cost the UK economy more than twice what covid cost. I can find actual numbers for covid. Where are the actual numbers for Brexit - with, if need be, actual numbers of forecast losses? It's prefectly obvious that lost exports aren't costing the country hundreds of billions a year, because EU exports (for various reasons) are currently higher than ever. So what are the actual costs of Brexit that add up to such a huge number?

 

[Jim in the West]

I doubt that. Are there any massed ranks of people demanding political union with the USA because of ESTAs, queues at airports, and more expensive mobile phones?

You'll probably find more grumbling is directed at the people who are charging the money and failing to work the customs offices. To you, it's self evident that if the EU puts in customs barriers, we must join the EU; to some people, the EU's barriers are a knock against the EU, not against the UK.

And for the record, I don't see it as an annoyance that I don't have to pay extra for my mobile phone to subsidize those who use theirs abroad.

In my experience Brits waiting in queues at airports DEFINITELY blame Brexit! Of course there are those who might curse "the bloody frogs" (for example) in time-honoured fashion, but when you arrive at an airport and see one (short) queue for EU nationals, and another (long) one for Brits, then it's self-evident where the blame lies.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

It must be so disappointing to be so evangelical about Brexit and all these years in to be arguing the toss about how much damage has been done to the economy.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Yes, but I'm not actually all that interested in Richard Hughes' predictions, either of the long term 4% GDP damage or of the predicted inflation rate of 4.4%. I don't deal in out-of-date predictions.

It has been said that Brexit has cost the UK economy more than twice what covid cost. I can find actual numbers for covid. Where are the actual numbers for Brexit - with, if need be, actual numbers of forecast losses? It's prefectly obvious that lost exports aren't costing the country hundreds of billions a year, because EU exports (for various reasons) are currently higher than ever. So what are the actual costs of Brexit that add up to such a huge number?

I'm no expert, but even I can see that there are Brexit costs outside of export costs

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/brexit-has-added-6-britains-food-bills-researchers-say-2022-04-27/

One very simple example being the 6% increase in food costs for consumers and it's effect on inflation but I'm sure you can think of hundreds of others. And, as a tip, the ongoing costs and losses from Brexit haven't gone down or been offset by benefits since those 'out-of-date' articles were written.

Brexit: Michael Gove fails to name single change that has ‘made business easier’​

Michael Gove has failed to name a single change from Brexit that has “made business easier”, as criticism of the economic harm from the trade deal grows. The leading campaigner for EU withdrawal was asked six times to set out how the promised “transformation of our economy” has been achieved – six years after the Leave vote.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...pc=U591&cvid=f05f5b2b464f49ae979a14ba1f7bc70e

But you keep clutching those Brexit straws

 

[Eric the meek]

'UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000'​

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

That says it all really.

The main reason that many voted for Brexit, to 'take back control', i.e. control our borders and keep the 'bandits' out,
has Utterly. Utterly. Failed.

Who would have thunk it?

​

 

[Bold Seagull]

'UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000'​

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

That says it all really.

The main reason that many voted for Brexit, to 'take back control', i.e. control our borders and keep the 'bandits' out,
has Utterly. Utterly. Failed.

Who would have thunk it?

​

Anyone with half a brain.

 

[portlock seagull]

'UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000'​

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

That says it all really.

The main reason that many voted for Brexit, to 'take back control', i.e. control our borders and keep the 'bandits' out,
has Utterly. Utterly. Failed.

Who would have thunk it?

​

Always depended on a competent government doing what it was democratically elected to do. It’s now abundantly clear we live in an age of buffoons doing what they want. I’m resigned to never bother voting again, and hoping for the best whilst I see out my days. Politics is for young people now, not just voting for change but driving to ensure it doesn’t go off road ie the brightest and the best becoming MPs out of a sense of duty rather than ahead of a more money rewarding career. Not.Going.To.Happen. Just like reversing climate change. Too selfish as a species

 

[Randy McNob]

Oh, none whatsoever. They just pushed Brexit as “the alternative”. I’m just saying mass immigration was a Blairite policy, the numbers skyrocket thereafter. Not making a point either way, just a statement of fact.

and our economy thrived during that period, continuous growth meaning investment in public services and decent living standards. Now you have negative growth meaning cuts and austerity and worse standard of living.

If you're happy to be poorer because you dislike foreigners then I guess you're winning....

 

[dsr-burnley]

I'm no expert, but even I can see that there are Brexit costs outside of export costs

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/brexit-has-added-6-britains-food-bills-researchers-say-2022-04-27/

One very simple example being the 6% increase in food costs for consumers and it's effect on inflation but I'm sure you can think of hundreds of others. And, as a tip, the ongoing costs and losses from Brexit haven't gone down or been offset by benefits since those 'out-of-date' articles were written.

The problem is, of course, that there is more than one way to count inflation. This calculation, as you can see on pages 32-34 of the report, is based on assumptions and logarithms and other complexities, and concludes that prices in September 2021 are 6% higher, relative to previous years' food inflation rates, because of Brexit.

But when you look at actual food inflation, the official food CPI produced by simply looking at how much food costs compared with the previous year, you find that food inflation pre-Brexit was 2.5% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018, and 2.0% in 2019. Then it was 1% in 2020 and 1.3% in 2021, so it's awfully hard to see how 6% of that 2.3% rise was caused by Brexit.

I'm sure it's a clever report, but it's too clever by half. You don't need logarithms to measure how much money you're spending!

RPI:Percentage change over 12 months - Food and catering - Office for National Statistics

 

[Simster]

The problem is, of course, that there is more than one way to count inflation. This calculation, as you can see on pages 32-34 of the report, is based on assumptions and logarithms and other complexities, and concludes that prices in September 2021 are 6% higher, relative to previous years' food inflation rates, because of Brexit.

But when you look at actual food inflation, the official food CPI produced by simply looking at how much food costs compared with the previous year, you find that food inflation pre-Brexit was 2.5% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018, and 2.0% in 2019. Then it was 1% in 2020 and 1.3% in 2021, so it's awfully hard to see how 6% of that 2.3% rise was caused by Brexit.

I'm sure it's a clever report, but it's too clever by half. You don't need logarithms to measure how much money you're spending!

RPI:Percentage change over 12 months - Food and catering - Office for National Statistics

Sane people: Brexit is the cause of tens of billions of pounds of damage to the economy, as well as the needless loss of rights.
You: Where's the evidence?
Sane people: Here, see these 46 links.
You: <picks one link> this one is saying inflation is 4% higher than it would be without Brexit, where is the evidence?

etc etc

How about you just concentrate on finding ONE tangible benefit in response, instead of making yourself look like a needlessly contrary cock?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The UK Government is not - and never was - interested in controlling immigration. As an EU member the UK failed to take action it could have to reduce immigration. Brexit has got rid of EU citizens that were staffing our hospitals and paying tax, but immigration continues to grow.

Net migration has just hit an all time record. This is all recorded incomers whether 'pre booked' or seeking asylum.

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

I agree that we have been lied to for the entirety of the tory time in office - condemning immigration and foreigners while at the same time doing nothing about their incoming, with the exception of the much needed potential NHS staff and the like. Lots of crops rotting, unpicked, down here in Kent, too. Inaction and incompetence in exchange for votes - well done, tories.

I think that the dictum 'never trust a tory' (politician) is increasingly resonating.

 

[portlock seagull]

and our economy thrived during that period, continuous growth meaning investment in public services and decent living standards. Now you have negative growth meaning cuts and austerity and worse standard of living.

If you're happy to be poorer because you dislike foreigners then I guess you're winning....

Is Putin not responsible for most of that, along with climate change?

 

[Simster]

Is Putin not responsible for most of that, along with climate change?

Well you can say he's responsible for the energy crisis and global inflation, but Putin is not responsible for the UK still being the only major country whose economy is smaller than its pre-Covid levels. That'll be because we've chosen to needlessly cut ourselves off from our biggest and closest export market.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Is Putin not responsible for most of that, along with climate change?

Putin isn't responsible for the likes of the US and UK massively increasing the wealth gap between the richest and poorest in their economies which feel the shock of events far more acutely than more progressive economies that have mantained a standard of living for their lowest earners so that despite an energy crisis, or covid there is still a maintained standard of living. Throw Brexit into the mix, and it is our own decisions that have made us worse off than other comparable economies.

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes, but I'm not actually all that interested in Richard Hughes' predictions, either of the long term 4% GDP damage or of the predicted inflation rate of 4.4%. I don't deal in out-of-date predictions.

It has been said that Brexit has cost the UK economy more than twice what covid cost. I can find actual numbers for covid. Where are the actual numbers for Brexit - with, if need be, actual numbers of forecast losses? It's prefectly obvious that lost exports aren't costing the country hundreds of billions a year, because EU exports (for various reasons) are currently higher than ever. So what are the actual costs of Brexit that add up to such a huge number?

can save you a lot of time here, the cited 4% hit to GDP is an estimate to 2030. the combined effects of brexit and covid is about the same 4% to date, estimates allocate about 2% to each. so it is said the GDP impact in total is about double in the long run. the total cost of Covid is not a loss to GDP as the money was spent in the economy, just as import/exports haven't gone to zero, so those are wrong numbers to start from. on inflation the numbers across Europe are the similar, no way to realistically attribute to anything other than global macro effects.

 

[dsr-burnley]

can save you a lot of time here, the cited 4% hit to GDP is an estimate to 2030. the combined effects of brexit and covid is about the same 4% to date, estimates allocate about 2% to each. so it is said the GDP impact in total is about double in the long run. the total cost of Covid is not a loss to GDP as the money was spent in the economy, just as import/exports havent gone to zero, so those are wrong numbers to start from. on inflation the numbers across Europe are the similar, no way to realistically attribute to anything other than global macro effects.

The total cost of covid is a cost in general. It's money spent that must be repaid, or collected in tax, or inflated out of existence. Whether any of those things affect GDP or not, it is still a cost.

 

[St Leonards Seagull]

How about you just concentrate on finding ONE tangible benefit in response, instead of making yourself look like a needlessly contrary cock?

I think we may be waiting a while.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Sane people: Brexit is the cause of tens of billions of pounds of damage to the economy, as well as the needless loss of rights.
You: Where's the evidence?
Sane people: Here, see these 46 links.
You: <picks one link> this one is saying inflation is 4% higher than it would be without Brexit, where is the evidence?

etc etc

How about you just concentrate on finding ONE tangible benefit in response, instead of making yourself look like a needlessly contrary cock?

Why do Brexit arguments always come down to "I am clever and you are stupid so I will call you rude names"?

I can't produce evidence of the quality that Watfordzero produced in his initial 6 links (I haven't read the extra ones added later), but those six mostly consisted a one man;s prediction that GDP in 2030 would be 2% less than it would have been without Brexit, and that inflation in 2022 might reach 4.4%. I can't prove him wrong about the former.

Tangible benefits of leaving the EU? We aren't in the EU. If we hadn't had three PMs to run the process who were incompetent or dishonest or both to a great degree, we might see tangible benefits as well as intangible. But incompetent politicians aren't purely the result of Brexit.

 

[beorhthelm]

The total cost of covid is a cost in general. It's money spent that must be repaid, or collected in tax, or inflated out of existence. Whether any of those things affect GDP or not, it is still a cost.

sure but you cant directly compare cost of Covid with trade to % GDP growth. you end up compounding confusion about the original data. the cost of Covid contributed to GDP (includes government expenditure). GDP growth now will be lower due to the total fall in production due mostly to Covid. GDP growth over 12 years will be lower due to brexit effects.