[Politics] Brexit

[portslade seagull]

So you now admit remainers did not make Johnson PM?
I agree that the Labour Party was absolute tosh. But stop blaming others for your vote.

I wanted Boris in because I voted to leave. The remain camp be it Labour, LD, Green totally cocked up on there little voting arrangements didn't they. Couldn't even agree on that could they/ you.
As a grizzling gammon you must have filled your pint glass up by now
Labour will appoint a like minded replacement to Corbyn as the centrists are just to Lilly livered to oppose it and it will be a further 5yrs on top of this one before they even see light at the end of the tunnel

 

[daveinplzen]

belittling a brutally honest answer .....seeing as Brexit hasn't happened yet how can it be responsible for something that has been going on for 15 years.

Youre right, I used the wrong term... it should have read the EU... I just dont see the relevance..
At the end of the day, we are leaving. Still not entirely sure when, but we are leaving. I wait to see who gets blamed when this government hits reality, and starts failing to bring home the promises.

 

[Happy Exile]

Where is the evidence for this?

May's deal kept us inside the customs union indefinitely with no unilateral exit clause, signed up to numerous rules and regulations without a say and limited any ability to conduct trade deals. The Boris deal means we leave the customs union and are free to negotiate trade deals. That sounds more like a 'proper' Brexit to me.

Well, Farage and Brexit press like the Telegraph and the Express disagree with your analysis, but they are by no means the only ones. In a YouGov poll only 9% of those who support the deal think its the best deal available and only 2% think it's a good deal.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Well, Farage and Brexit press like the Telegraph and the Express disagree with your analysis, but they are by no means the only ones. In a YouGov poll only 9% of those who support the deal think its the best deal available and only 2% think it's a good deal.

Farage criticised any deal because he wanted to stay in the game hence his support for no deal. As for the rest ..

The proportion of Leave voters who want MPs to vote through Mr Johnson’s deal now stands at 67 per cent compared with 33 per cent for Mrs May’s deal.

The polling guru said when YouGov asked whether Parliament should vote for or against the deal - 41 percent said accept, and 24 percent said reject.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...n-deal-leave-voters-poll-results-john-curtice

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Johnson's deal is infinitely better than May's deal.

It gives the freedom needed for future trade deals throughout the world.

It does not rule out future EFTA membership.

In fact it is actually the plus in the so-called Norway+ deal in that it sorts out the Irish border.

Where we go from here is key. I'd like to see very close alignment with the EEA on certain sectors - finance, services, and automotive as a minimum.

There is no need to push EEA access across the full spectrum of the economy.

No MEPs, no ECJ overrule ( the EFTA court would be great ! ), no EU army, no CAP, no CFP.

A slight pivot away from the ERG would be most welcome - and a great future relationship highly possible.


Brexit is now done. Or as good as. It is a debate now for historians.


But I still think Johnson is a disgrace.

 

[Lever]

Johnson's deal is infinitely better than May's deal.

It gives the freedom needed for future trade deals throughout the world.

It does not rule out future EFTA membership.

In fact it is actually the plus in the so-called Norway+ deal in that it sorts out the Irish border.

Where we go from here is key. I'd like to see very close alignment with the EEA on certain sectors - finance, services, and automotive as a minimum.

There is no need to push EEA access across the full spectrum of the economy.

No MEPs, no ECJ overrule ( the EFTA court would be great ! ), no EU army, no CAP, no CFP.

A slight pivot away from the ERG would be most welcome - and a great future relationship highly possible.


Brexit is now done. Or as good as. It is a debate now for historians.


But I still think Johnson is a disgrace.

I agree with you wholeheartedly about that. The rest remains to be seen.... no one knows.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Where is the evidence for this?

May's deal kept us inside the customs union indefinitely with no unilateral exit clause, signed up to numerous rules and regulations without a say and limited any ability to conduct trade deals. The Boris deal means we leave the customs union and are free to negotiate trade deals. That sounds more like a 'proper' Brexit to me.

I still find it a little surprising that such a committed unionist

NO SURRENDER obvs (self-determination/democratic will of the majority in NI). The Unionist community has only one major concern re being shafted and that's from 'principled' politicians who have spent much of their career supporting a United Ireland while cosying up to Republican terrorists.

would prefer a deal that was offered to Therea May, but turned down because it put a border down the Irish sea

 

[pastafarian]

Johnson's deal is infinitely better than May's deal.

It gives the freedom needed for future trade deals throughout the world.

It does not rule out future EFTA membership.

In fact it is actually the plus in the so-called Norway+ deal in that it sorts out the Irish border.

Where we go from here is key. I'd like to see very close alignment with the EEA on certain sectors - finance, services, and automotive as a minimum.

There is no need to push EEA access across the full spectrum of the economy.

No MEPs, no ECJ overrule ( the EFTA court would be great ! ), no EU army, no CAP, no CFP.

A slight pivot away from the ERG would be most welcome - and a great future relationship highly possible.


Brexit is now done. Or as good as. It is a debate now for historians.


But I still think Johnson is a disgrace.

I cant see being in the EEA or close alignment with EEA. Its just hasnt been in Johnsons vocabulary, he is going down the expected FTA route and his constant mention of a new immigration system with an Australian style points system is at odds with being in the EEA.



The free movement of persons is one of the core rights guaranteed in the European Economic Area (EEA), the extended Internal Market which unites all the EU Member States and three EEA EFTA States – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. It is perhaps the most important right for individuals, as it gives citizens of the 31 EEA countries the opportunity to live, work, establish business and study in any of these countries.
The legislation on the free movement of persons aims at eliminating all obstacles to the freedom of movement, and to give the same rights to nationals of an EEA State and their family members within the EEA by eliminating any discrimination on the basis of nationality.
To complement and support the principle of the free movement of persons, the EEA Agreement also specifies the rules applicable in the fields of recognition of professional qualifications and social security coordination. Both are necessary to enable people to exercise their fundamental right to free movement effectively.

https://www.efta.int/eea/policy-areas/persons

 

[WATFORD zero]

You can believe what you want, but the transition period if subject to an extension will not be extended for up to 10 years. You are way off the mark.
Enjoy being out to lunch.

Lovely lunch thanks

So obviously, you think my estimate of 10 years to negotiate a trade deal with the EU is way off the mark. Out of interest, how long do you think it will take ?

 

[pastafarian]

Lovely lunch thanks

So obviously, you think my estimate of 10 years to negotiate a trade deal with the EU is way off the mark. Out of interest, how long do you think it will take ?

I think your estimate of extending the transition/implementation period for up to 10 years is more than way off the mark, its a bit bonkers

 

[WATFORD zero]

It means leave the EU. Apparently we are compelled to agree a withdrawal agreement to get that process moving. You and your representatives have prevented that from happening up to now.

I haven't done anything to prevent it. Johnson on the other hand

To leave, that’s it. If leaving evolves over the next few decades I have no problem with that. It will be ratified at general elections. That’s how our history within the EU occurred. The idea that it all has to be decided immediately and that there is no particular mandate for any one outcome is simply a stalling tactic much repeated by Remainer politicians as an excuse to ignore the referendum vote.
Boris Johnson voted against the deal because he thought we could get a better one. To confuse this with Remainer MPs who wanted to thwart leaving is disingenuous.

I'm guessing that you don't run a business that has any interaction with the EU. It's just that I think you'll find it's not the WA they are waiting expectantly for in order to start moving forward, as that doesn't help with any business planning or financing. What they actually need is to know what this 'next few decades of evolving' means to trade, tariffs, quotas rules and regulations

 

[WATFORD zero]

I think your estimate of extending the transition/implementation period for up to 10 years is more than way off the mark, its a bit bonkers

So, if you think it's bonkers, how long do you think it will take to negotiate a trade deal with the EU ?

I won't take it personally as I seem to remember you making completely wrong judgements on extensions before

The EU will extend our membership with the same (or increased fees and no influence over any aspect of the rules under which we trade). It makes no sense for them to have their nearest neighbour blow their brains out, economically speaking. The mess will effect them !

That’s odd, there is a draft joint EU/UK document doing the rounds describing in great detail how our membership of the EU is coming to an end and that this “shall enter into force on 30 March 2019”. I havnt yet seen any draft document describing our membership of the EU being extended, you been staring too closely at your crystal ball again?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I think your estimate of extending the transition/implementation period for up to 10 years is more than way off the mark, its a bit bonkers

No surprise though .. he also predicted we wouldn't leave the EU and that there would be a hung parliament.

 

[WATFORD zero]

No surprise though .. he also predicted we wouldn't leave the EU and that there would be a hung parliament.

I did indeed, but after predicting (and having you claim the opposite each time)

We wouldn't leave on 31st March
We wouldn't leave on 12th April
Johnson would be elected leader of the Conservative (and Unionist !) Party
Johnson would some back with a deal that Theresa May had already turned down
We wouldn't leave on 31st October
Caroline Lucas would increase her majority

I was bound to get one wrong eventually. Enjoy your long awaited victory, as I feel I may be on anther winning run

So for starters

We will not have a Trade agreement with the EU by Dec 31st 2020

Hope you don't have to wait another 3.5 years to get something right

 

[pastafarian]

So, if you think it's bonkers, how long do you think it will take to negotiate a trade deal with the EU ?

I seem to remember you thinking I was making bonkers statements on extensions before

Actually correction, your belief that the transition period will be extended up to 10 years is not bonkers its crackers.
The transition period is a protocol defined in the Withdrawal Treaty.
Any extension to it is also defined in the Withdrawal Treaty.
The Withdrawal Treaty provides a mechanism to extend the transition period for one or at the maximum two years. It is part of the legal text.
There is no provision contained in the Treaty to extend the transition period for up to 10 years.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Actually correction, your belief that the transition period will be extended up to 10 years is not bonkers its crackers.
The transition period is a protocol defined in the Withdrawal Treaty.
Any extension to it is also defined in the Withdrawal Treaty.
The Withdrawal Treaty provides a mechanism to extend the transition period for one or at the maximum two years. It is part of the legal text.
There is no provision contained in the Treaty to extend the transition period for up to 10 years.

Out of interest what does the legal text say about financial obligations for extending the transition period (have a look at clause 30 )

It's interesting as, according to my friend here, apparently there was nothing in the WA about extending the WA

That’s odd, there is a draft joint EU/UK document doing the rounds describing in great detail how our membership of the EU is coming to an end and that this “shall enter into force on 30 March 2019”. I havnt yet seen any draft document describing our membership of the EU being extended, you been staring too closely at your crystal ball again?

And you still seem to be unable to say how long you think this negotiation of a trade agreement is going to take ?

I'll leave you going round in circles, I've got better things to do

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I did indeed, but after predicting (and having you claim the opposite each time)

We wouldn't leave on 31st March
We wouldn't leave on 12th April
Johnson would be elected leader of the Conservative (and Unionist !) Party
Johnson would some back with a deal that Theresa May had already turned down
We wouldn't leave on 31st October
Caroline Lucas would increase her majority

I was bound to get one wrong eventually. Enjoy your long awaited victory, as I feel I may be on anther winning run

So for starters

We will not have a Trade agreement with the EU by Dec 31st 2020

Hope you don't have to wait another 3.5 years to get something right

When did I claim we would definitely leave on 31st March, 12th April, 31st of October? It's not much of a prediction considering parliament wouldn't agree on supporting any deal and wouldn't allow no deal.

When did I claim Boris wouldn't be leader? I supported Gove but Boris was the clear favourite amongst the membership, you predicted the favourite would win .. bravo.

Boris didn't come back with a deal May had already turned down.

Lucas increasing her majority, really stuck your neck out on that one

 

[pastafarian]

Out of interest what does the legal text say about financial obligations for extending the transition period (have a look at clause 30 )

It's interesting as, according to my friend here, apparently there was nothing in the WA about extending the WA



And you still seem to be unable to say how long you think this negotiation of a trade agreement is going to take ?

I'll leave you going round in circles, I've got better things to do

You utter plank, of course there was provision to extend the transition period in the withdrawal agreement.
You have taken a quote from 2018 at a period when the negotiations had NOT been extended at that point of time. at that time of the quote in 2018 they were still expecting the WA to get through and indeed “shall enter into force on 30 March 2019”. there had not yet been agreement to extend the negotiations.

Having one of your WTO wobble moments again.

 

[Happy Exile]

Farage criticised any deal because he wanted to stay in the game hence his support for no deal. As for the rest ..

The proportion of Leave voters who want MPs to vote through Mr Johnson’s deal now stands at 67 per cent compared with 33 per cent for Mrs May’s deal.

The polling guru said when YouGov asked whether Parliament should vote for or against the deal - 41 percent said accept, and 24 percent said reject.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...n-deal-leave-voters-poll-results-john-curtice

Yup, the YouGov poll showed people wanted it to be voted through but they didn't think it was a good deal. It was to "get Brexit done".

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I haven't done anything to prevent it. Johnson on the other hand



I'm guessing that you don't run a business that has any interaction with the EU. It's just that I think you'll find it's not the WA they are waiting expectantly for in order to start moving forward, as that doesn't help with any business planning or financing. What they actually need is to know what this 'next few decades of evolving' means to trade, tariffs, quotas rules and regulations

If you have voted for an MP who tried to thwart the process then, in my view, you have contributed. That’s not a problem though. We disagree, that’s all. As someone said on another thread, there are more important things in life.
As to certainty for business, I’m afraid that doesn’t exist. Economies are always evolving and risk takers take risk. Decades of certainty doesn’t exist. Imagine how businesses felt when we went into the EU. In fact I know someone who lost his business because of it (potato farmer from Jersey). That did not prevent the country going ahead with joining the EU. Interestingly the financial markets reacted positively to the Tory election victory so there certainly seems to be a view that the upcoming period provides more certainty than that of the previous Parliament.
Finally, thank you for a polite expression of your views. I usually open your replies with some trepidation