[Politics] Brexit

[nicko31]

My prediction Labour will either win or lead a coalition in the next parliament. They will pursue a soft Brexit and put it to the people in a confirmatory vote. I'd still vote remain but I could live with something that does not completely hamstring this country. Whilst there is a vocal minority in favour of no-deal the public at large has no stomach for it and a compromise soft Brexit seems to marginally be the most popular option amongst the people.

The Tories will lose some seats to the Lib Dems particularly in their former strongholds of the SW. The tories will be wiped out in Scotland. My gut also says that when faced with a vote for labour government or five more years of Boris Johnson the north will not crumble in the way people expect.

The 2017 election was called by May (majority 30) when the tories were 24 points ahead, one terrible campaign later she had blown it. On this week's evidence who on earth thinks the next tory campaign will be better. It will be dirtier that is for sure, but the mask has slipped further from this government. The pound shorting JRM's contempt for the Commons and Boris's pitiful bluster and lies have shown this government up for what it is, a total shambles.

Tories are in a tight spot, do a deal with Farage and campaign on a toxic no deal which has a narrow appeal or getting their vote split by having the Brexit around

The notable thing about the Tories is they offer young people absolutely nothing, they need to get off their backsides to keep Boris out of power

 

[Hotchilidog]

Hmmm, I am in a tough spot.

I have nothing in common with the Brexit party, however would a tactical vote for them in Crawley help the Tories lose seats?

Only if you previously voted Tory. Labour will be the vote to get rid of the tories in crawley a majority of 2,459 makes it very much a marginal.

 

[pb21]

But we're not having No Deal. So all of the preparations and money spent has been wasted, could have been used elsewhere.

We very likely aren't leaving with no deal on the 31st October, who knows how we will leave come the next deadline?

However, if there is a Tory majority at that time then we likely will leave with no deal IMO, in which case the extra few months will have been worth it.

 

[dingodan]

You can all take the p*ss all you like, but the reality is that whether you are pro or anti brexit, we all depend on the principle that politicians derive their power through consent, and it isn't even actually their power it is ours. At least that is how it's supposed to be.

The revelation that politicians have power which belongs to them for them to use as they please, well that should be considered a detriment to us all. If the fact that they are currently using that power in a way which happens to align with your narrow short term political views, and because of that you are content with this situation, then you really have no idea of the gravity of the situation.

 

[Simster]

The loony hard Brexiteers will now just view The Financial Times as a hotbed of snowflake, lefty traitors.

There are normal people on here who are convinced Johnson is in the right. They are blaming everybody else but this appalling populist proven liar for not delivering Brexit when it could and should have been delivered within a year of the revocation of A50.
[MENTION=18559]dingodan[/MENTION] is convinced Brexit won't happen? Why? Let's just get it done - cross party concensus leading to smooth trading relations with our European partners. We have businesses that have spent 50 years building a supply chain with them. Can we not just find a solution that doesn't risk the livlihood of those people?
[MENTION=451]BensGrandad[/MENTION] has decided it's all the fault of Sir Nicholas Soames. Why? All he's done is vote to take no deal off the table. Soames' true colours are better reflected by the fact he has only ever voted against a Tory government 4 times in about 40 years. There should be alarm bells ringing if a proven Tory loyalist votes against his PM. Even more bells that he should be stripped of the whip for doing so.
[MENTION=21401]pastafarian[/MENTION] continues to argue that the only thing that matters is that we exit as per the referendum. I think I agree, we need to leave and I say that as a remainer. But it's high time that parliamentary process does that for us, and parliament has decided a no deal Brexit is too damaging. We have to maintain a degree of ties to our European friends and common market on the doorstep.

We have to leave, and the fact we haven't is down to a Tory party imposing something unpalatable on the rest of us. It's time to wake up to that fact when the FT's editorial is that scathing of a Tory government. Just READ it:

https://www.ft.com/content/fbddbbd6-cf1a-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

 

[Blue3]

Very true. People make a huge mistake for thinking fascism has to look like Nazism before it's worth calling out. Looking at the 12 established warning signs for fascism and comparing them to the UK and USA today shows we're in a troubling place.

EARLY WARNING SIGNS OF FASCISM (Holocaust museum)

1. Powerful and continuing nationalism
2. Disdain for human rights
3. Identification of enemies as a unifying cause
4. Rampant sexism
5. Controlled mass media
6. Obsession with national security
7. Religion and government intertwined
8. Corporate power protected
9. Labor power suppressed
10. Disdain for intellectual and the arts
11. Obsession with crime and punishment
12. Rampant cronyism and corruption

 

[Stat Brother]

There are six major petroleum refineries in the UK, supporting around 120,000 jobs directly and contributing about £8.6bn to the economy.

The concern, which is shared by both the Scottish and Welsh governments, relates to the UK government's decision not to apply tariffs - taxes on trade - to imports of petrol in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

The decision was made to lessen the inflationary impact on prices in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

The current tariff on fuel imports from non-EU countries is 4.7%.

However, under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, a zero tariff rate must apply to petrol imports from all countries, opening up the UK to Russian fuel imports.

At the same time, the EU has said it will apply a tariff, under WTO rules, of 4.7% to UK exports, making the trade with, for example, Ireland "uneconomical", according to insiders.


No Deal Brexit will feck around with a £6,8bn industry and 120,000 jobs.

That's just one industry.
Yet Pasta will still say it's a good thing

 

[dingodan]

There are normal people on here who are convinced Johnson is in the right. They are blaming everybody else but this appalling populist proven liar for not delivering Brexit when it could and should have been delivered within a year of the revocation of A50.
[MENTION=18559]dingodan[/MENTION] is convinced Brexit won't happen? Why? Let's just get it done - cross party concensus leading to smooth trading relations with our European partners. We have businesses that have spent 50 years building a supply chain with them. Can we not just find a solution that doesn't risk the livlihood of thos people.
[MENTION=451]BensGrandad[/MENTION] has decided it's all the fault of Sir Nicholas Soames. Why? All he's done is vote to take no deal off the table. Soames' true colours are better reflected by the fact he has only ever voted against a Tory government 4 times in about 40 years. There should be alarm bells ringing if a proven Tory loyalist votes against his PM. Even more bells that he should be stripped of the whip for doing so.
[MENTION=21401]pastafarian[/MENTION] continues to argue that the only thing that matters is that we exit as per the referendum. I think I agree, we need to leave and I say that as a remainer. But it's high time that parliamentary process does that for us, and parliament has decided a no deal Brexit is too damaging. We have to maintain a degree of ties to our European friends and common market on the doorstep.

We have to leave, and the fact we haven't is down to a Tory party imposing something unpalatable on the rest of us. It's time to wake up to that fact when the FT's editorial is that scathing of a Tory government. Just READ it:

https://www.ft.com/content/fbddbbd6-cf1a-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

I think you are missing the point. 75% of MP's want us to remain.

& they have decided that we are going to remain.

The haven't admitted it, they cry out for a deal which they can, by a majority, support. - Knowing that there is no such thing and there never will be.

The same people who are crying out for that deal, if one where to ever come along, would refuse to support it.

When they say "we want Brexit, just not this Brexit, and just not that Brexit", they are playing a game. We are not fooled any longer.

 

[WATFORD zero]

What better deal? The EU will protect its border and won't throw Ireland under a bus. It's up to the UK to come up with a suggestion as to how to do it. The backstop, the only suggestion so far, has been rejected. If there's an alternative, then why hasn't the UK government suggested it.

It's also going to be far from true that all Tories will be in favour of No Deal. Remember that the majority of them were Remainers and there will be many who are going to be unhappy about going into an election on a No Deal manifesto - Theresa May, being just one.

I agree completely with the above. I am guessing that when you said earlier that a cross-party negotiating team could have done better, I am assuming you mean in getting an agreed deal through parliament, as I don't think they could have negotiated anything significantly different to TM's deal for the reasons above.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Only if you previously voted Tory. Labour will be the vote to get rid of the tories in crawley a majority of 2,459 makes it very much a marginal.

I voted Labour last time out, can you see Crawley swing the other way?

 

[Stat Brother]

I'm sorry but if you're left thinking:-

Not a huge fan of his but good point from Farage on BBC Breakfast


and you don't instantly think:-

'I wonder if there's more to this than meets the eye'.

You're an idiot.



There must be things Farridge says that hold up to scrutiny (I guess) but the fact that everything has to be held up to scrutiny first tells you all you ought to know.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

But we're not having No Deal. So all of the preparations and money spent has been wasted, could have been used elsewhere.

Yes, yes it could.

As could have all the money wasted on the entire shitshow that is Brexit.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Tories are in a tight spot, do a deal with Farage and campaign on a toxic no deal which has a narrow appeal or getting their vote split by having the Brexit around

The notable thing about the Tories is they offer young people absolutely nothing, they need to get off their backsides to keep Boris out of power

Yes they do. Good to see over 100,000 have registered to vote this week. They key to winning elections is appealing to the 30% or so who currently do not vote.

 

[Dave the OAP]

What is the point now of peroging( however you spell it) parliament now as the whole idea seemed to be stopping MPs discussions on a no deal...well that has been effectively ruled out yesterday.

So does Boris cancel the closure?

 

[Chicken Run]

EARLY WARNING SIGNS OF FASCISM (Holocaust museum)

1. Powerful and continuing nationalism
2. Disdain for human rights
3. Identification of enemies as a unifying cause
4. Rampant sexism
5. Controlled mass media
6. Obsession with national security
7. Religion and government intertwined
8. Corporate power protected
9. Labor power suppressed
10. Disdain for intellectual and the arts
11. Obsession with crime and punishment
12. Rampant cronyism and corruption

Take 8 & 9 away and you have described communism [emoji23]

 

[Stat Brother]

What a feckin surprise.

One subject:-
Petrol

Add 3 words:-
No
Deal
&
Brexit

Spew it into google and guess what it equals

One shiteshow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49405270




I'm not a huge fan of Farrage but...
Doesn't half read like 'I'm not a Nazi but ..'.

There are six major petroleum refineries in the UK, supporting around 120,000 jobs directly and contributing about £8.6bn to the economy.

The concern, which is shared by both the Scottish and Welsh governments, relates to the UK government's decision not to apply tariffs - taxes on trade - to imports of petrol in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

The decision was made to lessen the inflationary impact on prices in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

The current tariff on fuel imports from non-EU countries is 4.7%.

However, under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, a zero tariff rate must apply to petrol imports from all countries, opening up the UK to Russian fuel imports.

At the same time, the EU has said it will apply a tariff, under WTO rules, of 4.7% to UK exports, making the trade with, for example, Ireland "uneconomical", according to insiders.


No Deal Brexit will feck around with a £6,8bn industry and 120,000 jobs.

That's just one industry.
Yet Pasta will still say it's a good thing

I'm sorry but if you're left thinking:-

Not a huge fan of his but good point from Farage on BBC Breakfast


and you don't instantly think:-

'I wonder if there's more to this than meets the eye'.

You're an idiot.



There must be things Farridge says that hold up to scrutiny (I guess) but the fact that everything has to be held up to scrutiny first tells you all you ought to know.

According to The Department of Trade 4.0% of the UK's exports are refined oil.
Weighing in at £14.1bn.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...0402_UK_Trade_in_Numbers_full_web_version.pdf

 

[Is it PotG?]

Yes, yes it could.

As could have all the money wasted on the entire shitshow that is Brexit.

Or people could have said 'OK, we're leaving. Let's get a brains trust to get the best possible cross-party deal'. Corbyn would not have had to change sides every 5 minutes then.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I think you are missing the point. 75% of MP's want us to remain.

& they have decided that we are going to remain.

The haven't admitted it, they cry out for a deal which they can, by a majority, support. - Knowing that there is no such thing and there never will be.

The same people who are crying out for that deal, if one where to ever come along, would refuse to support it.

When they say "we want Brexit, just not this Brexit, and just not that Brexit", they are playing a game. We are not fooled any longer.

It's very simple then. There are three realistic options, Soft Brexit with a deal, Hard Brexit with no deal and Remain. Take it away from the MPs, put the three options to the people and let them decide.

I agree with you completely, let the people take back democracy

 

[WATFORD zero]

I greatly dislike Boris, and I have never voted tory and never would. But I am wondering whether Boris might have a vision.....bear with me:

Parliament cannot agree on a deal, but if you accept a deal must be had (I don't, but let's accept it for the moment) then how do you do it?

If Parliament can't agree a deal then we can simply crash out and do the deals after we leave. Why not?

OK it will hurt people, but only for a while, and in a few years Boris will be the saviour of Leave just like Maggie saved the Falklands.

Now, given that Boris is happy to lie and cheat to get what he wants then, yes, he will play all the tricks in the book to let us drift into a no deal Brexit.

He has enough support in the media to survive.

Plus, in the country, there are enough men who want to be him, and enough women who want to shag him, that he is teflon coated.

I can see Boris 'winning'.

I hope not, but....

Were you raiding [MENTION=21401]pastafarian[/MENTION]'s stash last night

Hope you've recovered

 

[Bold Seagull]

All this fuss about No Deal shows how much politicians have put themselves ahead of the UK. I'm no fan of Boris, any more than any politician from local councillors upwards, but a negotiator needs a bargaining chip. Boris had only one, to threaten to leave with No Deal and keep the alimony from the divorce. Obviously with No Deal off the table, the EU will have us by the short and curlies. Unfortunately, our politicians of all colours have chosen to regard the threat as a given to serve their own political interests - Tories who want a more powerful job in Government, Labour to bring down the Government and put John McDonnell in as PM to lead us to a socialist disaster, the others to get a tiny foothold of influence for their own ends. God, we are screwed!

Our 'only' bargaining chip is no deal!? I thought they needed us more than we needed them?

If your only bargaining chip in a negotiation is self harm, then you've really got no bargaining position in the first place. It was never worth walking through the door.

We've got huge amounts of imports and exports, including goods, services and people. We have an international presence. We are one of the world's top economies. I thought we were supposed to talk ourselves up, not down in saying our only chip is a no deal.

Ultimately, its not that the EU has us by the short and curlies, it really is the reality of the Irish border - did people really think magic fairies were going to make trade from an EU country into NI frictionless while the mainland UK to the EU operates under some WTO rules in the event of No Deal? It's nonsense. Complete delusion.

The unpalatable backstop in the deal to hardline Tories, something we've known about for a year has had no firm alternative put forward. Nothing. No reasonable working solution. Threatening No Deal is simply unworkable given the world knows a return to border checks on the Irish mainland is unthinkable, the GFA cannot be thrown to the wayside - you can kiss goodbye to any US trade deal if you did.

The only politicians serving their self interest at the moment is the Tory front bench. Prepared to burn Rome to the ground to get what they want.