Brentford's statistical strategy- recipe for success or will plans go up in smoke?

[Blackadder]

It will be interesting to see if Brentford can hold on to all their players this summer.

I wouldn't be surprised if they leave the Championship at the end of next season, not necessarily in the direction they had hoped.

 

[Stat Brother]

Oh and I don't need no statistics to tell me what I already know:-

PATRICK FRIDAY EZE will be the greatest Albion player, ever, FACT.

 

[Elvis]

It seems ridiculous they want to implement this now after the massive success they've had over the past two seasons. Their manager is leaving because of it.

Totally agree with this. To change direction which envolves getting rid of the most successful manager in the clubs history is a huge huge gamble. I like Warburton and think he will have a big part to play in a football clubs fortunes,although it won't be Brentford.

 

[Gluteus Maximus]

Seems to have worked in Denmark. The Brentford chairman owns a club out there where he implemented the system and, I think, they are doing pretty well. Whether it can cross over into the English game and the ultra competitive championship only time will tell. Warburton obviously didn't think it would.

FC Midtjylland are likely to win the championship today, by a fair margin, ahead of the more moneyed and profile filled teams of FC Copenhagen and Brondby. FCM has been used as Brentford's laboratory and have now taken the managing director over to Brentford, so it is likely they are going even more for the moneyball approach because of the success of FCM in Denmark. It didn't work for us, though I suspect Tony Bloom hasn't dropped it completely, and I suspect it will be short lived for FCM and Brentford, if things at some point don't start going their way.

 

[Gullflyinghigh]

From the work Warburton has done there (not just as manager) it seems lunacy to change it when it's going so well.

That said, Southampton were widely condemned for getting rid of Adkins and implementing a new approach and that seemed to work out fairly well.

I guess the ideal route is making sure that the mix between the old and new schools of thought are kept relatively balanced, hard as that probably is to achieve.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Bloom's gambling business makes millions out of statistical analysis of football. That doesn't mean than statistics can form the basis of running a football club.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Reckon that was Brentford's high-water mark for the foreseeable, same as ours was v the Palace play-off semi. You don't get too many chances to go up with a comparatively so-so squad, and you have to GRAB those chances when they come along, else they're a long time coming round again.

 

[symyjym]

Our problem wasn’t targeting the right player using statistics, it was not being able to complete the deal.

I think the a DOF successes and failures have to be judged on a case by case basis. Some work and some don’t because it is all about personalities at the end of the day. It has worked very well at Shampton and it adds continuity when the managers go. What is important to avoid is players and managers becoming too attached to each other, and when we sign a player they are primarily playing for the club first and manager second.

Warburton's departure from the club sounds like an amicable and respectful end, with both parties being clear about the way they wanted to work. Ideally Gus’s departure should have been like Warburton's instead of a battle of wills against the chairman.

 

[Stat Brother]

I think the a DOF successes and failures have to be judged on a case by case basis. Some work and some don’t because it is all about personalities at the end of the day.

Not if you're posting on NSC and discussing The Burker.

 

[Icy Gull]

Our problem wasn’t targeting the right player using statistics, it was not being able to complete the deal.

I think the a DOF successes and failures have to be judged on a case by case basis.

You make a good point. Clayton, Grabban, Ward, all good players we couldn't land who would probably have made a massive difference to the shambles last season.

 

[symyjym]

You make a good point. Clayton, Grabban, Ward, all good players we couldn't land who would probably have made a massive difference to the shambles last season.

Yep, we were after Tomlin at some point, I seem to remember, and he has been pretty useful to Boro as well. The trouble is other clubs use the same software system so identifying these players is not the problem, making the deal is.

 

[RexCathedra]

Going forward there will be two types of successful teams -- those that use this approach, and those that use this approach, but don't admit it, projecting old-schooly-ness as part of a marketing plan.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Going forward there will be two types of successful teams -- those that use this approach, and those that use this approach, but don't admit it, projecting old-schooly-ness as part of a marketing plan.

Agree. Its a logical extension and why wouldnt clubs add data science to their armour. But i suspect it is as well as scouts

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

If going down the "moneyball" route works for them then fair play. It worked in Baseball maybe it can work in football. Different games of course but stats and data must count for something.

 

[Norman Baker suck my lozenge]

Bloom's gambling business makes millions out of statistical analysis of football. That doesn't mean than statistics can form the basis of running a football club.

Certainly went tits up last season,our most expensive squad ever should,statistically have made the top six.Fifth from bottom with a nice hotel on the way.
One club one ambition etc.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Warburton going plus second season syndrome, think it'll be bottom 6 next term.

 

[chaileyjem]

I'd suggest the first play off team was a Poyet team and the second one was what was left of a Poyet team who scraped in but had no chance of winning. This season was the first REAL Burke system team IMO. .

So you think ...
Poyet responsible for finishing 4th all by himself.
Poyet also responsible for finishing us 6th but Burke had no part of it apart from the losing to Derby bit. Despite oscar being the manager and gus having left 12 months before.
But
Burke definitely responsible for team being 23rd in the table this Christmas and responsible for the following 6 months too.?

Blimey.

 

[Icy Gull]

So you think ...
Poyet responsible for finishing 4th all by himself.
Poyet also responsible for finishing us 6th but Burke had no part of it apart from the losing to Derby bit. Despite oscar being the manager and gus having left 12 months before.
But
Burke definitely responsible for team being 23rd in the table this Christmas and responsible for the following 6 months too.?

Blimey.

No, I think Poyet had a MASSIVE say in the players we recruited when he was here. He then left when that part of his job was taken away from him and given to Burke. Our best players the next season under a decent manager were basically Poyet players with the addition of some rather ordinary Burke signings. Then Oscar left, quite possibly because he thought the recruitment system was shit and then we got rid of the last of Poyet's players and Burke took complete control. If you choose to think Burke's signings last season were on a par with the Poyet chosen players then good luck to you. You are the one who keeps telling us it was the most expensively assembled squad ever. Where DO you think it all went wrong?

A far more realistic appraisal (guess) IMO

 

[Igzilla]

I thought the point of the moneyball, statistics based approach was to identify those players who represented value for money, i.e. those where the stats showed a player performing above the median for the league they were in and undervalued...not purely signing players on the basis of those stats...

 

[Stat Brother]

No, I think Poyet had a MASSIVE say in the players we recruited when he was here. He then left when that part of his job was taken away from him and given to Burke. Our best players the next season under a decent manager were basically Poyet players with the addition of some rather ordinary Burke signings. Then Oscar left, quite possibly because he thought the recruitment system was shit and then we got rid of the last of Poyet's players and Burke took complete control. If you choose to think Burke's signings last season were on a par with the Poyet chosen players then good luck to you. You are the one who keeps telling us it was the most expensively assembled squad ever. Where DO you think it all went wrong?

A far more realistic appraisal (guess) IMO

If I had to pick a hole in that, I would suggest you have underplayed Oscar's (or Upson's) role in getting that, injury ravaged, team to the play offs.

I don't think 'decent' would have cut the mustard, last season.