Betfair trading

[seven stands]

Do any of this fine board use betfair to trade on the football ie back a draw before kick off and lay it after a few mins when the odds drop to give you a no lose bet (green up).




I have done it for six matches so far and not failed, am I mug or is this a good way of making small amounts from football betting?

I think if a goal goes in early the odds will shoot up but start to drop again the longer it stays one nil so as long as a team does not go two up you can cash out for a small loss or risk playing the draw

Free bet technique | Learning Zone shows the kind of thing but just going for the draw

 

[moggy]

Yeah, been trading for years. Back the draw and lay it once a goal goes in is the easiest trade to start I guess.
Best to start with a game that has a comfortable favourite and hope they score first

 

[seven stands]

just had my first early goal and its gone from 3.2 to 5.7 so I will find out if it drops now, if it does not ive just lost my 6 bets profit

Edit: get in there the mighty Manisaspor make it 1-1 the odds shoot back down and i get the trade for a profit of 38 - 42p.

 

[seven stands]

Yeah, been trading for years. Back the draw and lay it once a goal goes in is the easiest trade to start I guess.
Best to start with a game that has a comfortable favourite and hope they score first

do you mean lay the draw first ?

 

[amexee]

Yeah, been trading for years. Back the draw and lay it once a goal goes in is the easiest trade to start I guess.
Best to start with a game that has a comfortable favourite and hope they score first

Probably me being thick, but if you back the draw, why would you want to lay it after a goal goes in? Surely that guarantees you a loss. Seven stands way of laying it when a draw has stood for a while and odds shorten does however make sense to me.

 

[DTES]

just had my first early goal and its gone from 3.2 to 5.7 so I will find out if it drops now, if it does not ive just lost my 6 bets profit

Edit: get in there the mighty Manisaspor make it 1-1 the odds shoot back down and i get the trade for a profit of 38 - 42p.

Do you mean £42, or are you really sitting there for up to 90 minutes to make yourself 42p profit?

I assume I'm missing something...?

 

[seven stands]

place bets then sod off and it does it for you, and yes i mean 42p, then when I work out what the feck im doing I will up the stakes. had a whole £2.98 win earlier so with that 42p ive won a pint ha ha

 

[8ace]

Nothing wrong with starting small.

 

[DTES]

place bets then sod off and it does it for you, and yes i mean 42p, then when I work out what the feck im doing I will up the stakes. had a whole £2.98 win earlier so with that 42p ive won a pint ha ha

Ha - fair enough! Enjoy the beer!

Good luck venturing up to the bigger bets

 

[imissworthing2]

Just had a go at it for something to do, 20 mins into the game and still the lay odds are not low enuf for everything to go green. Is that as long as you've been waiting, seems abit dangerous if so

 

[seven stands]

Just had a go at it for something to do, 20 mins into the game and still the lay odds are not low enuf for everything to go green. Is that as long as you've been waiting, seems abit dangerous if so

The stake needs to be slightly more say if you back £30 lay £30.50 ish. There is a forumular, will see if I can find it

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

A couple of guys at work were explaining this to me the other day, I still don't get it though?

 

[seven stands]

Think this is it YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I have an interest in probability and expectation, but I'm not quite following this. Can someone run through a numerical example please?

 

[moggy]

do you mean lay the draw first ?

Yes, sorry

 

[moggy]

A couple of guys at work were explaining this to me the other day, I still don't get it though?

Look!
Let's say we have Liverpool vs fulham
Expected odds Liverpool 1.3 the draw 4.5 fulham 9.0
Okay, so lay the draw before kick off for £10.
(when you lay, you're basically the bookie)
So that's £10 at 4.5 which means I'm liable to lose £35 but stand to win £10
So, Liverpool score and go 1-0 up.
The prices will change to something like
Liverpool 1.1. The draw 8.6 fulham 36.0
Now I back the draw for £5
So that's £5 at 8.6 so in real money I stand to win £38 if it is drawn
So finally, if the match is drawn I make £38 minus £35 = £3
and if somebody wins I make £10 minus £5 = £5
therefore I've traded out to a no can lose bet to win either £3 of £5

 

[Mtoto]

Nothing wrong with starting small.

Very true, but the problem is that there are already plenty of people doing exactly the same thing, and doing so with a bankroll, a commission rate and a level of sophistication and analysis that the great majority of punters will never be able to match. I'd guess the difference is particularly marked if things start to go wrong, because the big bankrolls will be able to hang on that little bit longer, and get a slightly better price, if they decide to get out.
That said, I don't really buy the distinction between punting and trading anyway. I'm sure there are some who make a profit, but most are just losing money more slowly.

 

[Jack Daniels]

This will go well for a long time, But you will suddenly do all your money back very quickly when a couple results go badly for you. i.e. you cant get off because the price has gone the wrong way. Especially when you move up in stakes. its very easy to trade £2 for a profit not so easy to trade £200 or £2000 or £20000. Unless you get to grips with all the permations, It is very hard to make this work long tearm. Some of the most experianced market traders with huge bankrolls struggle from time to time with it. If you really want to make it work you may need to attend some trading seminars or something. In general its not worth it for the small amount you stand to win. And you will have losing periods days weeks months. No gambler wins all the time and however you dress this up remember its still gambling.

Been there done that got the t-shirt.

 

[mune ni kamome]

Most people have been there. I went for 36 bets greening up and taking my few pence or the odd pounds profit but eventually you get caught, unable to lay it off and weeks of work and struggle get wiped out. Find a way to eliminate that and you will be a rich man.

 

[Poyetry In Motion]

Most people have been there. I went for 36 bets greening up and taking my few pence or the odd pounds profit but eventually you get caught, unable to lay it off and weeks of work and struggle get wiped out. Find a way to eliminate that and you will be a rich man.

Agree totally with this.
Back in April, I made £122 profit in 14 days by lay betting. I thought to myself " easyish money ". Then - bam! I layed a 50-1 and the fecker won. This was immediately followed by another lay bet of 10-1 ( stupid I know ! ) going tits up, and that was it - wiped out in less than 5 minutes
The only saving grace was that the money I lost was all profit and not actual capital....