[Albion] Article - Brighton's Stat Attack - do we (just) need a striker?

[Guinness Boy]

There have been a few stats based posts and while I still insist you get nothing tangible from xG and xP I thought I'd look at comparative player stats and see if there were trends compared to other sides when it comes to accuracy.

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/content.php?882-Brighton%92s-Stat-Attack

This is purely framed in looking at where we might strengthen in the summer. It's not a dig at anyone in the club. Based purely on looking at three other clubs comparatively, plus rating our own players against each other, my conclusion is not only do we need a more deadly striker but also genuine competition for Solly at LWB and a much less profligate midfield - in fact in terms of attack we do comparatively badly from midfield. Read more on the link.

 

[Guinness Boy]

A quick to tip my hat to [MENTION=325]hart's shirt[/MENTION]

He knows why

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

In answer to OP's question: Yes, yes we do

 

[brighton_tom]

Striker... and an AJ/Izquierdo upgrade.

 

[Seagull58]

With Celtic turning 75% possession and 20+ shots into another 0-0 today, I hope that if we do shell out for their French wonder striker he actually turns out to be an upgrade on our current French wonder striker. Yes, he scores lots of goals in Scotland, as did Ali J and Locadia in Holland.

 

[Seasidesage]

I think what's noticeable there is the really poor return in both goals and assists especially from people you think have been important like Lallana? Gross is really the only one who has contributed from a goals and assists perspective. I would've said that was because others have missed them but the 'big chance' numbers say different?

Interesting. Thank you.

 

[Guinness Boy]

A 15 goal a season striker would be great, but not necessarily the difference.

Banford is Leeds' top scorer with 15, but they are not in 10th because of him.

They are 10th because they have numerous players who will score given the chance, as demonstrated today.

I genuinely think we are better than Leeds in many respects. They just have players who score and we don't. We do everything else better than them.

We just need more players capable of taking their chances. Hopefully this can be coached into the likes of Trossard, Maupay and others... but to some players it just seems to come naturally. Would be great if we could sign one or two of them this summer.

I still have the formulae set up.

A quick dip on the PL site just to look at Harrison and Klich tells a big story. Harrison has been incredible. 8 goals, 8 assists, 10 big chances, more crosses than any of our midfield except Gross and better shooting accuracy than Maupay. But he's on loan. Will Man City let him go back (sorry, I mean will the mighty Leeds deign to let City have their player)? Klich has done a good job too. 4 goals and 5 assists, he's taken fewer shots than Bissouma but they are three times more accurate.

The problem is, to get stats like that, you need to be very attack minded and they do get caught at the back a lot. We found a way to neutralise the Bielsa attack and, once we had, they had plenty of holes at the back. I'd love Harrison here but who would he replace and where would he play? Would his stats be as good fitting into a Potter system.

I agree with your overall comments though. The clear thing from looking at the stats for me was how little our midfield contribute in terms of goals.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I still have the formulae set up.

A quick dip on the PL site just to look at Harrison and Klich tells a big story. Harrison has been incredible. 8 goals, 8 assists, 10 big chances, more crosses than any of our midfield except Gross and better shooting accuracy than Maupay. But he's on loan. Will Man City let him go back (sorry, I mean will the mighty Leeds deign to let City have their player)? Klich has done a good job too. 4 goals and 5 assists, he's taken fewer shots than Bissouma but they are three times more accurate.

The problem is, to get stats like that, you need to be very attack minded and they do get caught at the back a lot. We found a way to neutralise the Bielsa attack and, once we had, they had plenty of holes at the back. I'd love Harrison here but who would he replace and where would he play? Would his stats be as good fitting into a Potter system.

I agree with your overall comments though. The clear thing from looking at the stats for me was how little our midfield contribute in terms of goals.

In fact, who WILL Leeds get on loan next season? A big part of their success seems to be having one loan player who comes from a far better level than the rest of their team.

 

[Yoda]

I think tonight's game highlights how little cover we have at the back for playing with a back 3/5

4 of the 7 that can play there naturally are out leaving us with square pegs in round holes

 

[TugWilson]

I still have the formulae set up.

A quick dip on the PL site just to look at Harrison and Klich tells a big story. Harrison has been incredible. 8 goals, 8 assists, 10 big chances, more crosses than any of our midfield except Gross and better shooting accuracy than Maupay. But he's on loan. Will Man City let him go back (sorry, I mean will the mighty Leeds deign to let City have their player)? Klich has done a good job too. 4 goals and 5 assists, he's taken fewer shots than Bissouma but they are three times more accurate.

The problem is, to get stats like that, you need to be very attack minded and they do get caught at the back a lot. We found a way to neutralise the Bielsa attack and, once we had, they had plenty of holes at the back. I'd love Harrison here but who would he replace and where would he play? Would his stats be as good fitting into a Potter system.

I agree with your overall comments though. The clear thing from looking at the stats for me was how little our midfield contribute in terms of goals.

Unless i misunderstood , Leeds were supposed to have made a bid for Harrison pre-season 20/21 obviously they worked something out with City . So after two years on loan will Leeds stump up for him or is he on the market ? . I watched him again today and he had another very decent game , he`s young enough and good enough to fit in with what GP wants .

I hope we are looking at him , and if City were fed up with Leeds dragging their heels and we singed him , that would be the biggest single laugh on the " Deluded`s " since Sprake dived over that penalty .

 

[Guinness Boy]

Unless i misunderstood , Leeds were supposed to have made a bid for Harrison pre-season 20/21 obviously they worked something out with City . So after two years on loan will Leeds stump up for him or is he on the market ? . I watched him again today and he had another very decent game , he`s young enough and good enough to fit in with what GP wants .

I hope we are looking at him , and if City were fed up with Leeds dragging their heels and we singed him , that would be the biggest single laugh on the " Deluded`s " since Sprake dived over that penalty .

I'm not totally sure if they had a bid accepted or not. Might do some googling on that. They should snap up Harrison if they can. He's their best player.

EDIT - looks like a loan to buy as you say. That would free up another domestic loan spot for next season.

 

[TugWilson]

I'm not totally sure if they had a bid accepted or not. Might do some googling on that. They should snap up Harrison if they can. He's their best player.

EDIT - looks like a loan to buy as you say. That would free up another domestic loan spot for next season.

That`s right loan to buy , if i remember correctly they wanted to use the money they would have paid for Harrison on other players when they got promoted , lets hope it comes back to haunt them in some way

 

[b.w.2.]

Again, there is no denying our midfield profligacy, but also no denying our striker profligacy either. The way I look at this is a striker’s primary job is to score. A midfielder’s primary attacking role is to make chances. We make plenty of chances. We miss far too many. Therefore, the top (but not only) priority is to sign a striker.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Stato]

I think what's noticeable there is the really poor return in both goals and assists especially from people you think have been important like Lallana? Gross is really the only one who has contributed from a goals and assists perspective. I would've said that was because others have missed them but the 'big chance' numbers say different?

Interesting. Thank you.

Most of Pascal's goals were penalties.

The truth is that though we make lots of chances, we make few 'big chances' for anyone to miss. I've been saying it all season: We are always trying to create chances in tight, crowded spaces, especially against teams who sit deep. A lot of the goals that Leeds and Villa score are scored by attacking players running into spaces whilst defenders try to backtrack with them and regain their shape. We don't often find ourselves in these positions. When we do, like Welbeck at Villa, or Maupay at Leeds, Trossard at Newcastle, we have shown that we can take the chances.

If Jack Harrison had been playing for us, he would have likely had a similar season to Trossard's: scoring a few, missing a few, having lots blocked and lots closed down. Our approach allows dominance in two thirds of the pitch, but squeezes everything into the final third. When you do this against well coached and talented EPL defenders, scoring is hard. You have to be accurate, quick, nerveless and clinical. Players who have this ability and psychology are hard to find. You either have to be very lucky, or very rich to get them. If, like most teams, you don't have that special player, you work the ball, you move it around, but, if the chance doesn't come, one of your midfielders usually hits it from distance through a crowded area. Biss seems the most likely to try this and most of his efforts go high and/or wide.

We need more tools that could allow us to find a way in these areas. It could be a fox, or a ram in terms of a striker, it could be a midfielder(s) with excellent accuracy from distance, or from set piece shooting opportunities, it could be a direct runner who drags in players and creates space elsewhere (and who isn't injured!), or a combination of some or all of these. At present we have hard working, quick footed, clever attacking players, but they are all quite alike. We have to give opponents doubt. They need to be thinking that two low lying banks of four won't always be enough to stop us. If the seed of doubt is sown, the approach of opponents will change and the players that we have will get the chance to prove that, given the space, they are just as good as any of their peers at converting good chances.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Most of Pascal's goals were penalties.

The truth is that though we make lots of chances, we make few 'big chances' for anyone to miss. I've been saying it all season: We are always trying to create chances in tight, crowded spaces, especially against teams who sit deep. A lot of the goals that Leeds and Villa score are scored by attacking players running into spaces whilst defenders try to backtrack with them and regain their shape. We don't often find ourselves in these positions. When we do, like Welbeck at Villa, or Maupay at Leeds, Trossard at Newcastle, we have shown that we can take the chances.

If Jack Harrison had been playing for us, he would have likely had a similar season to Trossard's: scoring a few, missing a few, having lots blocked and lots closed down. Our approach allows dominance in two thirds of the pitch, but squeezes everything into the final third. When you do this against well coached and talented EPL defenders, scoring is hard. You have to be accurate, quick, nerveless and clinical. Players who have this ability and psychology are hard to find. You either have to be very lucky, or very rich to get them. If, like most teams, you don't have that special player, you work the ball, you move it around, but, if the chance doesn't come, one of your midfielders usually hits it from distance through a crowded area. Biss seems the most likely to try this and most of his efforts go high and/or wide.

We need more tools that could allow us to find a way in these areas. It could be a fox, or a ram in terms of a striker, it could be a midfielder(s) with excellent accuracy from distance, or from set piece shooting opportunities, it could be a direct runner who drags in players and creates space elsewhere (and who isn't injured!), or a combination of some or all of these. At present we have hard working, quick footed, clever attacking players, but they are all quite alike. We have to give opponents doubt. They need to be thinking that two low lying banks of four won't always be enough to stop us. If the seed of doubt is sown, the approach of opponents will change and the players that we have will get the chance to prove that, given the space, they are just as good as any of their peers at converting good chances.

But the difference between an ordinary striker and what we require is turning half chances into goals.
We simply don’t have that lethal style of finisher.....

 

[The Tactician]

Most of Pascal's goals were penalties.

The truth is that though we make lots of chances, we make few 'big chances' for anyone to miss. I've been saying it all season: We are always trying to create chances in tight, crowded spaces, especially against teams who sit deep. A lot of the goals that Leeds and Villa score are scored by attacking players running into spaces whilst defenders try to backtrack with them and regain their shape. We don't often find ourselves in these positions. When we do, like Welbeck at Villa, or Maupay at Leeds, Trossard at Newcastle, we have shown that we can take the chances.

If Jack Harrison had been playing for us, he would have likely had a similar season to Trossard's: scoring a few, missing a few, having lots blocked and lots closed down. Our approach allows dominance in two thirds of the pitch, but squeezes everything into the final third. When you do this against well coached and talented EPL defenders, scoring is hard. You have to be accurate, quick, nerveless and clinical. Players who have this ability and psychology are hard to find. You either have to be very lucky, or very rich to get them. If, like most teams, you don't have that special player, you work the ball, you move it around, but, if the chance doesn't come, one of your midfielders usually hits it from distance through a crowded area. Biss seems the most likely to try this and most of his efforts go high and/or wide.

We need more tools that could allow us to find a way in these areas. It could be a fox, or a ram in terms of a striker, it could be a midfielder(s) with excellent accuracy from distance, or from set piece shooting opportunities, it could be a direct runner who drags in players and creates space elsewhere (and who isn't injured!), or a combination of some or all of these. At present we have hard working, quick footed, clever attacking players, but they are all quite alike. We have to give opponents doubt. They need to be thinking that two low lying banks of four won't always be enough to stop us. If the seed of doubt is sown, the approach of opponents will change and the players that we have will get the chance to prove that, given the space, they are just as good as any of their peers at converting good chances.

I'll add something if I may. This is exactly right, one of the primary reasons our xG is so high, but our conversion rates so low is because often there are defenders positioned to block shots from cutbacks, and our forwards don't have the required levels of composure to convert more of these chances. We've also missed some sitters along the way, but so have most teams.

StatsBomb research tells us that pressure on the ball makes a massive difference to finishing quality. They found shots under pressure were converted at half the rate (7%) that shots under no pressure were converted at (14%). Contextually, pressure direction is important. Conversion rates dropped from 12% to 5% when the pressure was in-front of the opponent, with pressure from either side of the shooter dropping conversion from 10% to 6.5%. When our oppositions sit deeper, and more defenders are in front of the ball when shots are taken, they are able to significantly affect our finishing. The trade-off is that you can be done by deflections / obscuring goalkeeper sightlines.

The main thing I wanted to stress in response to your point was something that isn't talked about too much in reference to our high possession, 'squeezing into final third' style. Whilst you can be open to fast breaks, our ability to regain the ball quickly after losing it (mostly due to Bissouma - and White when he's played in midfield) means that possession is a brilliant defensive weapon. We strangle the opposition and in so many games this season, they are unable to have enough of the ball to create good, or sometimes any chances. Our defensive numbers this season have been so, SO good. The third best xGA in the league, the 7th fewest goals conceded. Having the ball, pushing our opposition back has been an important factor in this.

 

[Stato]

I'll add something if I may. This is exactly right, one of the primary reasons our xG is so high, but our conversion rates so low is because often there are defenders positioned to block shots from cutbacks, and our forwards don't have the required levels of composure to convert more of these chances. We've also missed some sitters along the way, but so have most teams.

StatsBomb research tells us that pressure on the ball makes a massive difference to finishing quality. They found shots under pressure were converted at half the rate (7%) that shots under no pressure were converted at (14%). Contextually, pressure direction is important. Conversion rates dropped from 12% to 5% when the pressure was in-front of the opponent, with pressure from either side of the shooter dropping conversion from 10% to 6.5%. When our oppositions sit deeper, and more defenders are in front of the ball when shots are taken, they are able to significantly affect our finishing. The trade-off is that you can be done by deflections / obscuring goalkeeper sightlines.

The main thing I wanted to stress in response to your point was something that isn't talked about too much in reference to our high possession, 'squeezing into final third' style. Whilst you can be open to fast breaks, our ability to regain the ball quickly after losing it (mostly due to Bissouma - and White when he's played in midfield) means that possession is a brilliant defensive weapon. We strangle the opposition and in so many games this season, they are unable to have enough of the ball to create good, or sometimes any chances. Our defensive numbers this season have been so, SO good. The third best xGA in the league, the 7th fewest goals conceded. Having the ball, pushing our opposition back has been an important factor in this.

Thanks. That's top work. I'd agree with all you say.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Most of Pascal's goals were penalties.

The truth is that though we make lots of chances, we make few 'big chances' for anyone to miss. I've been saying it all season: We are always trying to create chances in tight, crowded spaces, especially against teams who sit deep. A lot of the goals that Leeds and Villa score are scored by attacking players running into spaces whilst defenders try to backtrack with them and regain their shape. We don't often find ourselves in these positions. When we do, like Welbeck at Villa, or Maupay at Leeds, Trossard at Newcastle, we have shown that we can take the chances.

If Jack Harrison had been playing for us, he would have likely had a similar season to Trossard's: scoring a few, missing a few, having lots blocked and lots closed down. Our approach allows dominance in two thirds of the pitch, but squeezes everything into the final third. When you do this against well coached and talented EPL defenders, scoring is hard. You have to be accurate, quick, nerveless and clinical. Players who have this ability and psychology are hard to find. You either have to be very lucky, or very rich to get them. If, like most teams, you don't have that special player, you work the ball, you move it around, but, if the chance doesn't come, one of your midfielders usually hits it from distance through a crowded area. Biss seems the most likely to try this and most of his efforts go high and/or wide.

We need more tools that could allow us to find a way in these areas. It could be a fox, or a ram in terms of a striker, it could be a midfielder(s) with excellent accuracy from distance, or from set piece shooting opportunities, it could be a direct runner who drags in players and creates space elsewhere (and who isn't injured!), or a combination of some or all of these. At present we have hard working, quick footed, clever attacking players, but they are all quite alike. We have to give opponents doubt. They need to be thinking that two low lying banks of four won't always be enough to stop us. If the seed of doubt is sown, the approach of opponents will change and the players that we have will get the chance to prove that, given the space, they are just as good as any of their peers at converting good chances.

Superb post. Great insight and analysis

 

[Stato]

But the difference between an ordinary striker and what we require is turning half chances into goals.
We simply don’t have that lethal style of finisher.....

True, but my point is that there are other ways. Had Knocky made the same kick on from the Championship that Grealish and Zaha did, we'd have had a player who coaches may look to double up on, leaving more space for our strikers to operate in. If one of the midfielders had Ward Prowse's talent in deadball shooting opportunities, we could knock it around until the foul came. If we had a big strong bloke who could batter the defenders about a bit, they may be more worried about him and more likely to make an error. The best we had was Lamptey, who did create the kind of chaos that can make a chance in space. The good thing is that I think Potter knows this. He wants a player who can disrupt. Unfortunately, since TL's injury, he's seen late cameos from AJ as his best chance of this and it just hasn't worked. Okay we may be missing someone to provide these impacts too, but not all of the options are as expensive as a 20 goal striker.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

I genuinely think we are better than Leeds in many respects. They just have players who score and we don't. We do everything else better than them.

It makes no difference if we are better than Leeds in many other respects. If they have the players that score more goals that's all that matters . . . as the saying goes, it's goals that win you games.