[Politics] anyone in that Hemisphere reporting on what's going on in China/Taiwan...?

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I agree.

However, China must feel emboldened by the lack of substantial response by the west to Russia annexing Crimea and dicking about with an invasion of Ukraine.

One wonders what Biden had in mind. Sadly, I suspect: not a lot.

China are patient and sensible enough to wait for a compliant republican white house

 

[Triggaaar]

I get the geo-political reasons for not wanting China to have an island on which they could build naval bases to threaten the world's oceans

I don't give a shit about that. How can it be different to them building naval bases on the mainland to do the same thing, for a start, but more importantly it's about a democracy having the right to not be invaded and taken over by another autocratic country, the same as with Russia invading Ukraine.

but I struggle somewhat with us getting too involved ( beyond sanctions ) with something half a planet away if anything escalates.

As above - it doesn't matter how far away they are, free people should be protected wherever possible.

 

[sparkie]

Taiwan is very different from Ukraine due to the large sea in between, makes any invasion far more difficult. Taiwan also has a much better equiped, prepared army, and support of a very large capable US navy fleet.

Sadly it seems the only months when the weather is viable for a Chinese invasion are August... and May.... and err April.

Nevertheless I am very sceptical that this is the invasion. We have not seen the Chinese mobilisations or ammunition ramp ups.

I don't give a shit about that. How can it be different to them building naval bases on the mainland to do the same thing.

In geo-political strategy Taiwan is the middle point of the "1st Island Chain" counter to Chinese power projection.

 

[beorhthelm]

China are patient and sensible enough to wait for a compliant republican white house

China are patient enough to wait for a more compliant Taiwan.

 

[knocky1]

This.

That said, I spoke to my old boss yesterday (his wife is Chinese, his daugher and son-in-law live and work half the year in China) and he said 'War?

Pelosi visiting Taiwan has provoked some pretty aggressive words and "war games" from China ,reports of Chinese jets buzzing the island and missiles being fired rather too close for comfort and numerous war vessels mobilised ......hope this isn't another Russia/Ukraine scenario , it will not end well....ffs just before the season kicks off as well....how's this guy doing dy'a reckon..??
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I'd imagine you're happy selling billions of Australian resources to China to help the rich international non tax paying owners, whilst stopping Asian immigration, f***ing Taiwan, f***ing 95% of the chinese people and enjoying the wealth from it in Australia.

 

[The Clamp]

We have to be very careful about dismissing certain powers’ military manoeuvres as “sabre rattling”. Russia and China being very dangerous territories with malevolent intentions.

Similarly, dismissing this as “something happening on the other side of the world” is a huge mistake. In both political and warfare terms, there’s no such thing as “the other side of the world” anymore. Those days are long gone.

 

[knocky1]

I am inclined to be concerned. China are itching for war and a few months ago Australian troops were told to be ready for war.

They'll need more than sandpaper in their pockets for this one. Ashes is very apt.

 

[Guinness Boy]

All a bit tense at the moment with Chinese naval exercises all around Taiwan.

I get the geo-political reasons for not wanting China to have an island on which they could build naval bases to threaten the world's oceans, but I struggle somewhat with us getting too involved ( beyond sanctions ) with something half a planet away if anything escalates.

Worth watching but this time it's still most probably just sabre rattling.

Happens all the time.

China are patient and sensible enough to wait for a compliant republican white house

Bush was in charge when I lived in Taiwan. The Republican government were selling arms to Taipei like sweeties. There are still plenty of old school Republicans who think China is actually Communist

 

[GT49er]

Precisely. Diversifying our supply of key essentials is one of the dull but essential functions of government admin which clearly hasn't happened over the last 40 years. A certain amount of human skills and industrial capacity need to be kept in house. Again, it hasn't happened. The lack of resilience in our economy is being exposed again and again.

Margaret Thatcher unfortuately more or less succeeded in getting rid of all this country's nasty dirty manufacturing industries in favour of all the money that could be made by suits trading in the financial world. Bit tricky (and too late) to try to reverse that now.

 

[beorhthelm]

Margaret Thatcher unfortuately more or less succeeded in getting rid of all this country's nasty dirty manufacturing industries in favour of all the money that could be made by suits trading in the financial world. Bit tricky (and too late) to try to reverse that now.

you know what you're saying is, all those industries weren't making any money? otherwise the suits would have kept them going. recent event has shown every country is reliant on global supply chains, from lumber to chips. it's a nice idea for local capacity, problem is skills, production lines and supply chains are already global (Taiwan one of the greatest beneficiary of this) and unless you want everything to be duplicated at vast additional cost that isnt going to change.

 

[Pondicherry]

Happens all the time.

Bush was in charge when I lived in Taiwan. The Republican government were selling arms to Taipei like sweeties. There are still plenty of old school Republicans who think China is actually Communist

Well the CCP still thinks China are communist and I guess they set the rules.

 

[Billy the Fish]

I see Macron getting his appeasement in early this time.

 

[Hamilton]

We have to be very careful about dismissing certain powers’ military manoeuvres as “sabre rattling”. Russia and China being very dangerous territories with malevolent intentions.

Similarly, dismissing this as “something happening on the other side of the world” is a huge mistake. In both political and warfare terms, there’s no such thing as “the other side of the world” anymore. Those days are long gone.

Potential for dominoes.

China hit Taiwan, North Korea have a crack at South Korea. Americans get drawn in. Russia and Belorussia have a go at the Baltic states. NATO gets triggered. In all the melee Iran decides to take on Iraq again to secure the oil fields.

It’s a good time to live in Patagonia.

What a stupid world we live in.

 

[sparkie]

I'm keeping an eye on this - and not 100% ruling it out - but I don't think China will repeat Putin's blunder of launching an invasion before starting mobilisation.

OK, they lose an element of surprise but going in without all the building blocks in place could be catastrophic - as Putin discovered.

 

[sparkie]

Potential for dominoes.

China hit Taiwan, North Korea have a crack at South Korea. Americans get drawn in. Russia and Belorussia have a go at the Baltic states. NATO gets triggered. In all the melee Iran decides to take on Iraq again to secure the oil fields.

It’s a good time to live in Patagonia.

What a stupid world we live in.

I agree with some of this.

North Korea will possibly be "tasked" by China to keep South Korea and maybe Japan "busy" if they invade Taiwan.

America could well be drawn in.

Russia doesn't now have enough army left currently to attack the Baltic States, and the Belarusian army is pretty small and more likely to march on Lukashenko in Minsk.

Iran could do anything.

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

Has Tiawan applied for NATO membership yet?
That'll save em ...

 

[sydney]

I'd imagine you're happy selling billions of Australian resources to China to help the rich international non tax paying owners, whilst stopping Asian immigration, f***ing Taiwan, f***ing 95% of the chinese people and enjoying the wealth from it in Australia.

i have about as much control over what we sell to china as you do over what shoes Rishi Sunak wears ....you tit.

im just promoting awareness , albeit 9 months ago ffs.

 

[sparkie]

Has Tiawan applied for NATO membership yet?
That'll save em ...

NATO treaties only cover Europe, North America, and the Atlantic ocean north of the Tropic of Cancer. Interestingly there are legal arguments whether an attack on Haweii would be covered or not by Article 5.

Whereas Mexico may well qualify ( for instance ), Taiwan definitely wouldn't without Treaty rewrite.

 

[sydney]

NATO treaties only cover Europe, North America, and the Atlantic ocean north of the Tropic of Cancer. Interestingly there are legal arguments whether an attack on Haweii would be covered or not by Article 5.

Whereas Mexico may well qualify ( for instance ), Taiwan definitely wouldn't without Treaty rewrite.

Hawaii or Huawei....??