[Brighton] All Brighton & Hove primary schools to switch to online learning from Monday ?

[Biscuit Barrel]

Interesting article on the BBC website today. I know statistics can be interpreted in many ways, but it does seem that teachers are quite low down the list of professions when it comes to risk of death from Covid.

I understand that schools can be a real breeding site for Covid, but it will be interesting to see if teachers are put to the top of the list when it comes to workers being vaccinated, as is being mentioned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55795608

 

[ATFC Seagull]

Interesting article on the BBC website today. I know statistics can be interpreted in many ways, but it does seem that teachers are quite low down the list of professions when it comes to risk of death from Covid.

I understand that schools can be a real breeding site for Covid, but it will be interesting to see if teachers are put to the top of the list when it comes to workers being vaccinated, as is being mentioned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55795608

However other studies beforehand have suggested that teachers are miles more likely to CATCH Covid.

My gut instinct is that the reason that they aren't *much* more likely to DIE is that the majority of teachers are under 50, and that its a job where if you have significant underlying health concerns you are unlikely to be doing it.

 

[ATFC Seagull]

Also, the data period was 9 March and 28 December 2020. Face to face teaching of full classes of kids didn't begin until September.

Anyway, there are definitely some alarming examples of jobs you really would not think would be on there.

 

[Biscuit Barrel]

However other studies beforehand have suggested that teachers are miles more likely to CATCH Covid.

My gut instinct is that the reason that they aren't *much* more likely to DIE is that the majority of teachers are under 50, and that its a job where if you have significant underlying health concerns you are unlikely to be doing it.

I take your point about teachers being mainly under 50, and therefore catching the virus but not dying from it. However, the occupations with the highest deaths do not suggest to me that they are more likely to have a far higher percentage of 50 plus (apart from maybe taxi drivers) aged people working in them.

119 restaurant and catering staff per 100,000
110 care workers
106 metal-working machine operatives
101 taxi drivers
100 security guards
79 nurses

 

[ATFC Seagull]

I take your point about teachers being mainly under 50, and therefore catching the virus but not dying from it. However, the occupations with the highest deaths do not suggest to me that they are more likely to have a far higher percentage of 50 plus (apart from maybe taxi drivers) aged people working in them.

119 restaurant and catering staff per 100,000
110 care workers
106 metal-working machine operatives
101 taxi drivers
100 security guards
79 nurses

I don't know - I think you'd be surprised how few teachers there are over that age.

I must say I am a bit confused by this study - as its based purely on deaths and not infections, are we perhaps implying that teachers are tougher at fighting the virus than other members of society? Having thought about I do think the date range is very significant.

 

[Albion 4ever]

Data released by the NEU just before Christmas for term 2 (Oct half term - Christmas) showed:

Teachers in special schools twice as likely to catch Covid than rest of population.
Secondary teachers almost double.
Primary teachers about 1.5 times.


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[beorhthelm]

However other studies beforehand have suggested that teachers are miles more likely to CATCH Covid.

is there data other that from the teachers union, which using self reporting is more than a bit suspect. there are not that many infections record at schools to support the numbers compared to the local area, so suspect statistical manipulation too. this study from BMJ shows low risk of severe covid.

 

[ATFC Seagull]

is there data other that from the teachers union, which using self reporting is more than a bit suspect. there are not that many infections record at schools to support the numbers compared to the local area, so suspect statistical manipulation too. this study from BMJ shows low risk of severe covid.

The study you've just linked to is using data from March to July. When schools were closed to most pupils.

No I don't know of any studies, and too busy to look unfortunately!

 

[Biscuit Barrel]

Data released by the NEU just before Christmas for term 2 (Oct half term - Christmas) showed:

Teachers in special schools twice as likely to catch Covid than rest of population.
Secondary teachers almost double.
Primary teachers about 1.5 times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The report was trying to highlight the death of teachers compared to other jobs. The other jobs with a much higher death rate are probably much higher than twice as likely to die from covid than the rest of the population.

I think the report was also trying to highlight that if there are professions where employees should be vaccinated, then teachers are quite low down on that list. At the moment there seem to be a real push for teachers to be vaccinated, but the report shows this is probably not a good idea compared to other higher risk jobs.

 

[ATFC Seagull]

The report was trying to highlight the death of teachers compared to other jobs. The other jobs with a much higher death rate are probably much higher than twice as likely to die from covid than the rest of the population.

I think the report was also trying to highlight that if there are professions where employees should be vaccinated, then teachers are quite low down on that list. At the moment there seem to be a real push for teachers to be vaccinated, but the report shows this is probably not a good idea compared to other higher risk jobs.

It definitely raises food for thought, but my points would still be:

1) Basing that on March-December massively undermines a comparison with teachers as kids were only in school en masse for 30% of that.

2) Its based on deaths, yet is sorted by workplace. I'm not a doctor or scientist, but does that even make sense? Surely the chance of dying is based on way more factors than the job you do when you were catching the virus?

3) Is there a chance there could be a bit of a spurious correlation in some places? I get cab drivers and maybe hospitality workers, but are we really saying that people who operate metal machinery (what exactly does that category even mean?) are by the nature of the job more vulnerable to Covid than nurses?

Don't mean to come across as overly argumentative. It's an interesting debate.

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[beorhthelm]

The study you've just linked to is using data from March to July. When schools were closed to most pupils.

No I don't know of any studies, and too busy to look unfortunately!

so it is.
trouble with the data looking for is occupation isnt often tracked with report of illness. i thought a good source would show it, alas not in the published data

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

It definitely raises food for thought, but my points would still be:

1) Basing that on March-December massively undermines a comparison with teachers as kids were only in school en masse for 30% of that.

2) Its based on deaths, yet is sorted by workplace. I'm not a doctor or scientist, but does that even make sense? Surely the chance of dying is based on way more factors than the job you do when you were catching the virus?

3) Is there a chance there could be a bit of a spurious correlation in some places? I get cab drivers and maybe hospitality workers, but are we really saying that people who operate metal machinery (what exactly does that category even mean?) are by the nature of the job more vulnerable to Covid than nurses?

Don't mean to come across as overly argumentative. It's an interesting debate.

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All good points, but it is probably the study that the government ‘refer’ to when they claim teachers are not at increased risk and made the political decision to open schools on the first day of term. The argument that kids spread the virus to society but teachers are not at risk is contradictory. The average secondary teacher will be in close contact with 150+ kids a week and 20-30 staff. Ultimately keeping schools open gets the economy moving as parents do not have to stay home, this is why there were different rules for primary schools at the start of January.