[Albion] Albion betting. BetVictor offering 2/1 on a bottom half PL finish.

[hans kraay fan club]

Personally, despite our fantastic start, I think those are incredible odds.

Consider that last season, universally considered to have been a fantastic one, we were sat in 13th place at half-time on the final day.

Even if we perform equally well this season (despite the loss of Bissouma, Cucurella, and Maupay, and the huge upheaval of the entire coaching staff walking out) - is a finish two points and a couple of places lower at all unlikely?

I really like this bet - it isn't a 'bet on the Albion to get relegated, to sooth the pain if it happens' style compensation bet. We can still have an excellent season (in the circumstances) finish with an equivalent points total, in 11/12th place, and I still win.

 

[stss30]

That does seem like a phenomenal bet. I don't ever bet on/against the Albion but if I did I'd be all over this.

 

[Victor Chandler]

That does seem like a phenomenal bet. I don't ever bet on/against the Albion but if I did I'd be all over this.

I agree 2/1 is excellent value. Even better value at Betfred at 12/5!

 

[Swansman]

Great odds and unlikely to be as good after the Pool/Spurs games.

 

[erkan]

Great odds and unlikely to be as good after the Pool/Spurs games.

Agreed. And a good example of how a punter can sometimes profit in a betting market due to above average knowledge/understanding.

No use to a compulsive gambler (we just find another way to get a buzz and lose our money in the end) but very useful to someone finding value systematically.

 

[Sheebo]

Could never bet against the Albion like this and find it hard to comprehend how a fan could! Mindset I guess, but I’d get no satisfaction in winning from the Albion doing not as well as I’d hoped - zero.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Could never bet against the Albion like this and find it hard to comprehend how a fan could! Mindset I guess, but I’d get no satisfaction in winning from the Albion doing not as well as I’d hoped - zero.

I wouldn't do this either and i'd take huge pleasure in those that did losing their money.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Logically, the following will finish above midtable:
1. Man City
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Spurs
5. Man Utd
6. Liverpool

So this is betting against Brighton finishing 7th - 10th.

Over 5 years in the PL, Brighton have scored at 1.1 ppg (not incl. this season). If we maintained that average until the end of the season, we'd have 35 additional points, total 48 pts.

So an average finish to our season from here, including Hughton's seasons would put us bang in line with around midtable. A slight improvement on our average ppg to 1.25, we'd add 40 points and finish on 53pts, which you would be shocked if that wasn't top half.

So not entirely convinced they don't know what they're doing and football fans always fear the worse.

 

[Pevenseagull]

That's some tempting disappointment insurance there.

 

[herecomesaregular]

Logically, the following will finish above midtable:
1. Man City
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Spurs
5. Man Utd
6. Liverpool

So this is betting against Brighton finishing 7th - 10th.

Over 5 years in the PL, Brighton have scored at 1.1 ppg (not incl. this season). If we maintained that average until the end of the season, we'd have 35 additional points, total 48 pts.

So an average finish to our season from here, including Hughton's seasons would put us bang in line with around midtable. A slight improvement on our average ppg to 1.25, we'd add 40 points and finish on 53pts, which you would be shocked if that wasn't top half.

So not entirely convinced they don't know what they're doing and football fans always fear the worse.

Good points.

Also to note, 10th place in previous seasons:

21/22: 51 points
20/21: 59
19/20: 54
18/19: 52

I've stuck £20 on betfred on this as head says 11th or below this season.

 

[erkan]

Logically, the following will finish above midtable:
1. Man City
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Spurs
5. Man Utd
6. Liverpool

So this is betting against Brighton finishing 7th - 10th.

Over 5 years in the PL, Brighton have scored at 1.1 ppg (not incl. this season). If we maintained that average until the end of the season, we'd have 35 additional points, total 48 pts.

So an average finish to our season from here, including Hughton's seasons would put us bang in line with around midtable. A slight improvement on our average ppg to 1.25, we'd add 40 points and finish on 53pts, which you would be shocked if that wasn't top half.

So not entirely convinced they don't know what they're doing and football fans always fear the worse.

Your analysis suggests the true odds should be much closer to Evens than 12/5.... definitely a value bet IMHO.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Could never bet against the Albion like this and find it hard to comprehend how a fan could! Mindset I guess, but I’d get no satisfaction in winning from the Albion doing not as well as I’d hoped - zero.

I don't even see this as a bet 'against the Albion'. I can land this, if we finish with 48 points and 11th place (for example), which would still represent a fantastic season for the Albion.

If we finish 7th, I'll be every bit as happy as you, while I browse amazon for guide books to Bratislava or Boroslaw.

But if we finish 11th or 12th, I'll be more satisfied with our efforts. Way too many Brighton fans unrealistically thinking that maintaining 9th place is the minimum expectation. Like I said - with 45 minutes of last season remaining, we were sat in 13th.

 

[Official Old Man]

Interestingly, most popular bet is Manchester United at 20/1 with Leicester second 2/11 and Albion third. Newcastle 3/1 fourth most popular and if our odds are good then theirs must be better.

 

[Sheebo]

I don't even see this as a bet 'against the Albion'. I can land this, if we finish with 48 points and 11th place (for example), which would still represent a fantastic season for the Albion.

If we finish 7th, I'll be every bit as happy as you, while I browse amazon for guide books to Bratislava or Boroslaw.

But if we finish 11th or 12th, I'll be more satisfied with our efforts. Way too many Brighton fans unrealistically thinking that maintaining 9th place is the minimum expectation. Like I said - with 45 minutes of last season remaining, we were sat in 13th.

Nah completely agree - as I say it’s mindset and I have to be all or nothing with us. And I’m not expecting us to better 9th - but similar be good!

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

It’s great value but you’d have to put something serious down for it be worthwhile waiting a whole season for. And if you put something serious on it, it’ll be hard to stop yourself being mindful of it too much. Think you’d find yourself willing on the top 6 plus Newcastle/West Ham a bit too much.

Then if we’re in a toss up for 10th or 11th on the final day…