[Albion] 5 clear, 3 to play, we are safe

[DumLum]

From whom do you assume those points will come against. Their 3 games are Leicester (a) United (h) and Everton (h)

Exactly.

 

[BensGrandad]

Don't quite get the Swansea/Southampton part. They can both overtake us if we lose all 3 (and even if we draw one), if the game between them is not a draw and the loser wins their other two games; not a massive likelihood but possible.

If we get 1 more point either one or both of them cant catch us.

 

[Si Gull]

It's just a case of likelihood as you said. Southampton have managed only 9 points in their last ten games, Swansea only 6 from ten, so the thought that they will both achieve 7 from 3 is unlikely to say the least.

IF we lose all 3 then Saints and Swansea will only need to win 2 each. Agreed they're more likely not to but when teams are fighting for survival past form means very little.

 

[spence]

Yep. West Ham GD is now 9 behind us.

So in short - all this needs to happen

- Albion lose all 3
WH need a minimum of 3 points from Leicester, Man Utd and Everton to overtake us. (Cos of GD)
saints need 5 out of 9
swans need 5 (cos of GD) out of 9
Hudds need 3 (cos of GD). Out of 9

And either Saints / Swans can only get max of 7 cos they are playing each other.

Still worried ?

All the time there there is a glimmer of a chance of us going down then fans of this club have every right to feel a bit nervous. Have you forgotten how we blew the Championship title which looked impossible at the time ?

 

[chaileyjem]

All the time there there is a glimmer of a chance of us going down then fans of this club have every right to feel a bit nervous. Have you forgotten how we blew the Championship title which looked impossible at the time ?

No.

And feel free to be as nervous as you like.

 

[warmleyseagull]

If we get 1 more point either one or both of them cant catch us.

No, that is incorrect. If we get one more point, Swansea can get 39 from 2 wins, but lose to Saints who can then surpass us with 7 (or possibly 6 with GD). Draw against Man U would be great result but not a mathematically safe one.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

If we get 1 more point either one or both of them cant catch us.

How do you work that one out? That doesn't even make sense.

If we get 1 more point they can both still overtake us with 2 wins each.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

IF we lose all 3 then Saints and Swansea will only need to win 2 each. Agreed they're more likely not to but when teams are fighting for survival past form means very little.

I'd say past form does count a lot. Occassionally a team will have a near miraculous escape but for the most part that will not happen. If past form truly counted for nothing then the bookies would have to look at the odds in a completely different manner.

 

[Steve.S]

No, that is incorrect. If we get one more point, Swansea can get 39 from 2 wins, but lose to Saints who can then surpass us with 7 (or possibly 6 with GD). Draw against Man U would be great result but not a mathematically safe one.

I don’t get some people. Southampton have Man City last game of the season, a win for them is as likely for them as it is for us against both Manchester clubs. Swansea still have to play Stoke who may still have a chance of beating the drop. The odds of 1 team putting a run of results together is probably a good bet. 2 teams 50/50. 4 teams highly unlikely.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

All the time there there is a glimmer of a chance of us going down then fans of this club have every right to feel a bit nervous. Have you forgotten how we blew the Championship title which looked impossible at the time ?

It didn't look impossible. Newcastle only had to win one game to overtake us, and us fail to win three games. 2 losses and a draw wasn't impossible at all.

 

[warmleyseagull]

I don’t get some people. Southampton have Man City last game of the season, a win for them is as likely for them as it is for us against both Manchester clubs. Swansea still have to play Stoke who may still have a chance of beating the drop. The odds of 1 team putting a run of results together is probably a good bet. 2 teams 50/50. 4 teams highly unlikely.

I never said it was likely so don't shoot messenger; just responding to BG's comment that we are safe with one point; mathematically that is untrue. For benefit of doubt, I am 95% sure we are safe.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I'm not sure how any seasoned supporter of a team in our current position could not have at least a tiny doubt that things could go tits up over the final 3 games. Stranger things have happened than Saints winning a couple of games and after Man C and Liverpool our GD may not be looking so good. Having said this, I still think we'll be ok but to have no doubts is bordering on pathological optimism. Do these people never fear the worst?

Do you really think Huddersfield can get three wins against Man City Chelsea and Arsenal? There are four teams below us, not just Saints and Swansea.

 

[Cheeky Monkey]

The commentators for the WHU game were pretty much suggesting WH were fairly safe (they were losing at that point), which I found a bit odd.

 

[Si Gull]

Do you really think Huddersfield can get three wins against Man City Chelsea and Arsenal? There are four teams below us, not just Saints and Swansea.

Huddersfield only need one win to overtake us if we lose the last three games.

 

[BensGrandad]

Huddersfield only need one win to overtake us if we lose the last three games.

Only, you say, with their last 3 games which 1 will they win do you think

 

[Me and my Monkey]

Oh, my nerves!

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

The commentators for the WHU game were pretty much suggesting WH were fairly safe (they were losing at that point), which I found a bit odd.

Interesting and strange at the same time. I was listening on Talksport, and they took a different tack altogether. They summarised it well by saying West Ham had been 'sucked' back into the relegation battle.

 

[DJ NOBO]

- we aren’t
- every possibility we will get another point
- all the teams around us have a lot of losable games - and are continuing to lose or drop points) Hudds, West Ham etc) and they don’t have 37 points
- saints and swans still have an awful lot to do and saints have even more to overtake us.
- Hudds aren’t in the same place as us. They have 2 fewer points. And a 14 goal GD swing to make up.
- Swans run in isn’t “nice” - it means that either saints or them will drop points. Thus helping us:
- it’s about as precarious as being a 40 or 50-1 shot which is what we are.

I hope you are right. You quite possibly are. I absolutely hope you are.
No way are we home and hosed though, as some seem to think we are.
My concern is that other teams will rouse themselves and get on a roll. Swansea, saints and hudd all have it them to do that .
I’m sure we will rouse ourselves but it may not make much difference given the calibre of opposition.
If it goes to last day.....we’ll, I hope it doesn’t go to last day.
I appreciate this is a negative view.
And To be fair, I thought we were done points-wise before the spurs game. I was delighted to be wrong on that.

 

[GT49er]

A genuine question, would you rather be in our position or Hudd's?

Same question, us or Swansea's?[/QUOTE
Yes, of course I'd rather be in our position. That doesn't mean I'm daft enough not to be concerned as long as finishing 18th. remains one of the possible outcomes.

 

[DJ NOBO]

I'm not sure how any seasoned supporter of a team in our current position could not have at least a tiny doubt that things could go tits up over the final 3 games. Stranger things have happened than Saints winning a couple of games and after Man C and Liverpool our GD may not be looking so good. Having said this, I still think we'll be ok but to have no doubts is bordering on pathological optimism. Do these people never fear the worst?

This