26 wins required, where should we expect the final 11 to come from?

[Perkino]

Over the last 5 seasons the top two have been automatically promoted with more than 25 wins. In fact often 25 wins leaves you in 3rd
2016 - Burnley & Boro (26)
2015 - BMouth (26) Watford (27)
2014 - Leicester (31) Burnley (26)
2013 - Cardiff (25) Hull (24)
2012 - Reading (27) Southampton (26)

Where should CH be looking to pick up those 11 additional wins?

 

[Nixonator]

Cardiff (H)
PNE (A)
Burton (H)
Reading (H)
Forest (A)
Rotherham (A)
Blackburn (H)
Birmingham (H)
QPR (A)
Wigan (H)
Brizzle (H)

 

[Official Old Man]

101 ways of looking at the second half of the season. Target 92 points, that's another 41 needed from a possible 69.
Where can we afford to drop those 28 points.
Then we take points off the chasing pack, Massive, Newcastle, Reading & Derby all at home.
It could be that 2017 could get off to a nightmare. A Fulham, A PNE, H Massive, H Newcastle, A Huddersfield and A Brentford are all losable. That's 18 points dropped.
After all this though my money is on a party either A Wolves or H Wigan. Forget Villa, it wont go that far.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

All the home games.

Away wins as bonuses.

 

[Ernest]

Next 11 games , sorted

 

[Icy Gull]

Make sure we don't lose to any of the other top six competitors should be the start point. Grab wins in a few and we'll be there

 

[GT49er]

Eleven wins may well not be enough. Just need to replicate the first half of the season.

 

[spence]

we will need 27 wins to be certain

 

[darkwolf666]

we will need 27 wins to be certain

"Certain" - but that would give us less points than last year when we fell at the last hurdle!

 

[Triggaaar]

Last season was a record for the number of points required to finish top 2 in the Championship.
This season, that record will be broken again.

Why? Because it would be bloody typical.

 

[Triggaaar]

"Certain" - but that would give us less points than last year when we fell at the last hurdle!

Not mathematically certain, no, but certain enough. We're not going to win 12 and lose 11 are we.

 

[darkwolf666]

Last season was a record for the number of points required to finish top 2 in the Championship.
This season, that record will be broken again.

Why? Because it would be bloody typical.

The difference this year is that I believe that is possible of the current squad.

We have turned draws into wins, which we didn't last year and we have an even more never say die attitude, if that was possible!

 

[larus]

Lets say we lost 7 games (that's as many as we've lost in 1 1/2 seasons). That leaves 16.
Of those 16, say we win 50%. 8 wins = 24. 8 Draws = 8 (that's just to help the Crystal Palace fans who may be reading). Total = 32.
Add 32 to 51 and we'd be on 83.

So, yes it could still go tits up, but in the last 1 1/2 seasons out of 69 games it's 39 - 23 - 7. Last season was just over 50% win ratio (24/46). This season it's 15/23, nearly 66%.


However if we analyse the stats, I think it would take a real implosion to cause us to drop to a win ratio of 33%. Of course anything is possible, but I just don't see it happening.

Derby could get 51 points from their remaining fixtures (as they do have a very good squad), so they could get to 90 points (maybe even 92). So, it's far from certain, but we have a nice cushion in case there is any blip.

 

[Triggaaar]

The difference this year is that I believe that is possible of the current squad.

We have turned draws into wins, which we didn't last year and we have an even more never say die attitude, if that was possible!

We did that in the last half of last season. It was only at the start where we were drawing too many.

 

[darkwolf666]

Not mathematically certain, no, but certain enough. We're not going to win 12 and lose 11 are we.

Triggaar, and you being a Brighton fan still don't believe we can find new and strange ways to conspire to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

No, I am sure if we with 12 we will pick up a few draws along the way too to give us over 90 points and be 'certain'... maybe!

 

[Triggaaar]

Triggaar, and you being a Brighton fan still don't believe we can find new and strange ways to conspire to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

Sure we'll find a way, I just don't think it will be that way. Probably cheated by poor refereeing, the FA and god, like last time.

 

[spence]

Sure we'll find a way, I just don't think it will be that way. Probably cheated by poor refereeing, the FA and god, like last time.

Our last two away games are Villa and Norwich. Both are struggling to make the play offs which could suit us. By the time we play them they're season could be over.

 

[darkwolf666]

Our last two away games are Villa and Norwich. Both are struggling to make the play offs which could suit us. By the time we play them they're season could be over.

Rather hoping we can go into the last 3 games coasting and being already promoted if not already champions!

Think big, dream bigger

 

[Perkino]

Our last two away games are Villa and Norwich. Both are struggling to make the play offs which could suit us. By the time we play them they're season could be over.

A villa and Norwich side who cannot make the playoffs or who will certainly be there and have nothing to play for may be nice

 

[Triggaaar]

Our last two away games are Villa and Norwich. Both are struggling to make the play offs which could suit us. By the time we play them they're season could be over.

Worst case, they need a result to get in the playoffs - best case, they're in the playoffs and need an easy game before their semi - med case, they've got nothing but pride to play for