15 Points From 10 Games

[Triggaaar]

According to my worst case scenario we need 16 points to be champions, level on points above saints(beat them on goal diff).

If we finished level on points with the saints, they'd probably beat us on goal difference. Our GD is 6 better than theirs, but if they catch up 12 points, that's them winning 4 while we lose 4, meaning at least (probably more) an 8 goal swing to them.

Still, not too long until we can celebrate. Very few of us thought Gus could get automatic promotion this year, and those that did were laughed at. What a top job they've all done.

 

[Austrian Gull]

Here is a comparison from the previous 12 years up to the end of March 31st of those side who were top. Where they finally finished are in brackets:

Season Team -------------------------- Pld W D L F A GD GFA GAA PpG Pts
1998/99 Fulham (1) ------------------- 37 26 6 5 63 26 37 1.70 0.70 2.27 84
1999/00 Preston North End (1) --- 38 23 9 6 65 33 32 1.71 0.86 2.05 78
2000/01 Rotherham United (2) ---- 39 23 8 8 72 49 23 1.84 1.25 1.97 77
2001/02 Reading (2) ------------------ 42 23 11 8 65 38 27 1.54 0.90 1.90 80
2002/03 Wigan Athletic (1) -------- 40 25 11 4 60 24 36 1.50 0.60 2.15 86
2003/04 Plymouth Argyle (1) ----- 39 22 12 5 75 33 42 1.92 0.84 2.00 78
2004/05 Luton Town (1) ------------- 40 24 10 6 75 42 33 1.87 1.05 2.05 82
2005/06 Southend United (1) ----- 39 21 10 8 64 35 29 1.64 0.89 1.87 73
2006/07 Scunthorpe United (1) -- 40 22 13 5 63 30 33 1.57 0.75 1.97 79
2007/08 Swansea City (1) ---------- 40 24 10 6 73 36 37 1.82 0.90 2.05 82
2008/09Leicester City (1) ----------- 40 23 13 4 71 34 37 1.77 0.85 2.05 82
2009/10Norwich City (1) ------------- 38 25 7 6 78 38 40 2.05 1.00 2.15 82
2010/11Brighton & Hove Albion --- 36 23 8 5 66 26 40 1.83 0.72 2.13 77


This gives us a good indication how Brighton have done this season.

Reading 2001/2002?

They were definitely the best side in the league that year. Oh yes.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Just to simplify Seagull1967's figures by looking only at average points per game for the teams at the end of March (such a big difference in points because of games played across that set of data), it becomes very clear:



We will have to have the Mother & Father of all crashes not to get promotion based on this.

 

[Life After Bobby]

Reading 2001/2002?

They were definitely the best side in the league that year. Oh yes.

I don't want someone in a few years time going

Brighton 2010/2011?

They were definitely the best side in the league that year. Oh yes.

 

[SULLY COULDNT SHOOT]

I think people are underestimating how close this division is ... no team (except possibly Borient) have shown durability like us and based on that I think none of the chasing teams are goign to get much over 80 points total... especially lookign at recent form and run-ins..... honestly belive that 5 points will be enough for promotion

 

[SULLY COULDNT SHOOT]

Just did a bit of maths where I was conservative with our results and had our next six games as 2 wins (home to Swindona nd the Daggers) and four draws and still think we will go up regardless of the Aints result as Peterboro wont get 3 points at the Moo Camp the 23rd. And then only Aints will be able to take the title away from us as they will have two games in hand.

And thats assuming a drop in form.

 

[kevo]

Points required

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I know we have to assume the others win every game but the fact is that if they all achieve the accepted promotion standard of 2 points per game from now on we need only seven points to get second place; nine to be champions.

 

[fleet]

I just want to be Champions at a game I am at - and that means not against Saints

 

[Seagull1967]

Top six sides run-in, (no Orient):

Brighton - Swindon (h), Dag & Reg (a), Rochdale (a), Sheff Wed (h), Dag & Reg (h), Walsall (a), Southampton (h), Colchester (a), Huddersfield (h), Notts County (a)

Peterborough - Bristol R (a), Bournemouth (h), Dag & Reg (a), Huddersfield (a), Plymouth (h), Orient (a), Yeovil (h), Rochdale (a), Dag & Reg (h)

Bournemouth - Charlton (h), Peterborough (a), Bristol R (a), Tranmere (h), Notts County (a), Yeovil (a), Bristol R (h), Hartlepool (a), Rochdale (h)

Huddersfield - Notts County (h), Tranmere (a), Peterborough (h), Charlton (a), MK Dons (a), Dag & Reg (a), Brighton (a), Brentford (h)

Southampton - MK Dons (h), Charlton (h), Orient (a), Rochdale (a), Bristol R (h), Brighton (a), Hartlepool (h), Brentford (a), Plymouth (a), Walsall (h)

MK Dons - Walsall (h), Southampton (a), Carlisle (h), Swindon (a), Huddersfield (h), Plymouth (a), Notts County (h), Oldham (a)


Key games are in red, so points will be dropped by various teams.