[Albion] 1% chance of relegation

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Interesting article by statistician Daniel Finkelstein in The Times today. Start of the season we were 25% chance of relegation, now down to 1%.

He also explores of Hughton it a good manager (spolier: he is) and discusses how we have relied so heavily on our defence since 2011 but that this is changing under CH.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Albion and Hughton under the Fink Tank scrutiny in Times

When live games finish on TV I always listen carefully, in case the commentator says something that cries out to be tested. Players are hugging each other and the pundits are nattering, and some pretty wild things are sometimes said.

As Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal left the pitch last weekend, most of the talk was about Arsène Wenger and has been said before. But I pricked up my ears when I heard talk about Chris Hughton being an excellent manager and this shaping up to be a good season for his side. Is that true?

Henry Stott, Mark Latham and Dinesh Vatvani have been taking a look.

Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

The gap is still there, even if smaller now, but something is definitely changing under Hughton. They are moving from high possession to a counterattack- ing style with less possession but increasing average pass length, a huge increase in aerial play, more attacking directness and less width.

Being better in defence than attack and a shift to this greater directness are a Hughton signature, as he has evolved the teams he has managed in pretty much the same direction each time.

And the idea that he is a good manager? Yes, that is consistent with the data. In every full season he has managed a side, he has improved them. There is one exception (Norwich City in 2013-14) but this was only a 2 per cent drop after a 5 per cent rise the season before. You would expect some variation.
Hughton has left every club he has managed stronger than he found it, and most considerably stronger.

How is he doing with Brighton this season? When the campaign started there was a 25 per cent chance they would go down. Now there is a little over a 1 per cent chance. Their expected finishing position was 16th when we ran the model before the first ball was kicked. Now they are expected to finish 12th.

Their play in the summer and autumn was the best from Brighton in ten years of the Fink Tank, and although they have dropped off a bit now they should still be safe.

 

[Medwayseagull]

What is the " dropped of a bit now " ? That is the last thing the vast majority would say about our season so far.

 

[warmleyseagull]

What is the " dropped of a bit now " ? That is the last thing the vast majority would say about our season so far.

Think he means dropped off from where we were prior to the 1 win in 14 run of matches, not the best way to express it.

 

[warmleyseagull]

View attachment 95009

Interesting article by statistician Daniel Finkelstein in The Times today. Start of the season we were 25% chance of relegation, now down to 1%.

He also explores of Hughton it a good manager (spolier: he is) and discusses how we have relied so heavily on our defence since 2011 but that this is changing under CH.

Have just copied and pasted article in another thread.

 

[Spicy]

Think he means dropped off from where we were prior to the 1 win in 14 run of matches, not the best way to express it.

You are probably right but he should have made it clearer!

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

A bottom of League Two attack in 2011? Murray scored 23, Barnes scored 20, along with Wood, Sandaza, Bennett and others. How the heck is that a bottom of League Two attack?

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

Finking appears to be limited in that article

 

[Barham's tash]

Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

A bottom of League Two attack in 2011? Murray scored 23, Barnes scored 20, along with Wood, Sandaza, Bennett and others. How the heck is that a bottom of League Two attack?

It’s purely statistical analysis and when comparing apples with apples would hold true whereas my and your romantic view of the players we had and what they did make it seem like a bloody stupid statistic. Meh.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Blues Rock DJ]

When live games finish on TV I always listen carefully, in case the commentator says something that cries out to be tested. Players are hugging each other and the pundits are nattering, and some pretty wild things are sometimes said.

As Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal left the pitch last weekend, most of the talk was about Arsène Wenger and has been said before. But I pricked up my ears when I heard talk about Chris Hughton being an excellent manager and this shaping up to be a good season for his side. Is that true?

Henry Stott, Mark Latham and Dinesh Vatvani have been taking a look.

Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

The gap is still there, even if smaller now, but something is definitely changing under Hughton. They are moving from high possession to a counterattack- ing style with less possession but increasing average pass length, a huge increase in aerial play, more attacking directness and less width.

Being better in defence than attack and a shift to this greater directness are a Hughton signature, as he has evolved the teams he has managed in pretty much the same direction each time.

And the idea that he is a good manager? Yes, that is consistent with the data. In every full season he has managed a side, he has improved them. There is one exception (Norwich City in 2013-14) but this was only a 2 per cent drop after a 5 per cent rise the season before. You would expect some variation.
Hughton has left every club he has managed stronger than he found it, and most considerably stronger.

How is he doing with Brighton this season? When the campaign started there was a 25 per cent chance they would go down. Now there is a little over a 1 per cent chance. Their expected finishing position was 16th when we ran the model before the first ball was kicked. Now they are expected to finish 12th.

Their play in the summer and autumn was the best from Brighton in ten years of the Fink Tank, and although they have dropped off a bit now they should still be safe.

at the risk of being shot down in flames.....do you actually go to games , or do you rely solely on what pundits say ?

 

[warmleyseagull]

at the risk of being shot down in flames.....do you actually go to games , or do you rely solely on what pundits say ?

Curious question. Why do you ask? I have been a fan since 1964 and am ST in Upper East. Does that mean I shouldn’t pay any attention to press? I have my own views, just think that Finkelstein’s statistical analysis adds value. End of.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

at the risk of being shot down in flames.....do you actually go to games , or do you rely solely on what pundits say ?

Might be a slight misunderstanding on your part, I think he’s just helpfully copied and pasted the article for us to read?

 

[Stato]

I was pleased that the graph shows a more than 50% chance of us finishing between 9th and 13th, then I realised who the 'Fink' was. If Finklestein's football analysis is as reliable as his political analysis, it's probably worked out by throwing darts in team colours whilst blindfolded.

Whilst mentioning him, I note that he has recently become a regular guest on Radio 4's 'The News Quiz' despite a complete inability to be either funny or interesting. He can only be there because they need a token tory. It seems that the BBC are so running scared of accusations of left wing bias, that they will sabotage their own output in the interest of political balance. I hope this works both ways and we can expect to see Mark Steel leading a Celebrity Apprentice team that storms the boardroom and leads Sugar out in chains to a show trial for his crimes against the people.

 

[Baldseagull]

Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

A bottom of League Two attack in 2011? Murray scored 23, Barnes scored 20, along with Wood, Sandaza, Bennett and others. How the heck is that a bottom of League Two attack?

Depends how you work with the numbers I guess. If a side created few chances, but put them all away, that could rank as a very good attack if shots to goals were the measure of your attacking success, or if you were rating the team for attacking qualities, the fact we created few chances would make the team less attacking. Another measure could be where the game was played, if the ball spent a lot of time in our half and we didn't concede, it could bump up the defence rating, but as the ball was in our half for long periods, it could be said we were not attacking very much. Basically it is good evidence that statistics can be misused.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Nearer 5% according to the bookies

 

[Spanish Seagulls]

I was pleased that the graph shows a more than 50% chance of us finishing between 9th and 13th, then I realised who the 'Fink' was. If Finklestein's football analysis is as reliable as his political analysis, it's probably worked out by throwing darts in team colours whilst blindfolded.

Whilst mentioning him, I note that he has recently become a regular guest on Radio 4's 'The News Quiz' despite a complete inability to be either funny or interesting. He can only be there because they need a token tory. It seems that the BBC are so running scared of accusations of left wing bias, that they will sabotage their own output in the interest of political balance. I hope this works both ways and we can expect to see Mark Steel leading a Celebrity Apprentice team that storms the boardroom and leads Sugar out in chains to a show trial for his crimes against the people.

Yes Comrade Stato.

 

[BN41Albion]

Finktanks sound like a load of bollocks to me judging by that article!

Bottom of league 2 attack but premier league defence in 2011... Eh?!

 

[DumLum]

Depends how you work with the numbers I guess. If a side created few chances, but put them all away, that could rank as a very good attack if shots to goals were the measure of your attacking success, or if you were rating the team for attacking qualities, the fact we created few chances would make the team less attacking. Another measure could be where the game was played, if the ball spent a lot of time in our half and we didn't concede, it could bump up the defence rating, but as the ball was in our half for long periods, it could be said we were not attacking very much. Basically it is good evidence that statistics can be misused.

Barnes did miss an incredible amount of chances that season even though he scored 20.

 

[Stato]

Yes Comrade Stato.

Los fascistas no pasarán, camarada gaviotas españolas!

 

[BN41Albion]

Barnes did miss an incredible amount of chances that season even though he scored 20.

We finished third best scorers though, how on earth they worked that out as a league two attack who knows