[Albion] The Alternative Giraffe Tracker

Richy_Seagull · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
Yes, because in a 20 team competition, that's when you've played every other side at home and away rather than, say, everyone else having played Man City twice and you only once.

Right. And the basis for everything is the league table? It's just an odd metric to solely rely on and somewhat narrow minded imo. I understand its ultimately the most important as it's why we play the game, but to use it solely to evaluate a teams performance is just bizarre. There is so much luck and variance in matches along with countless other things, so much more needs to be taken in to consideration.

Stato · May 2, 2021

At this point last year we had a point less than we have now and also still had to play City. We reached mathematical safety with the draws first against Southampton, and then at home to Newcastle in our penultimate game. We then got to 41 points by winning a dead rubber at Burnley on the last day of the season.

We have four games left. If WBA don't beat Wolves on Monday, a win at Wolves makes us mathematically safe. For Wolves our game is already a dead rubber. The Man City one will be too, as they will have won the league by then. Unfortunately, we won't get to play the reserves like Palace did yesterday, but we can hope that their focus may have slipped. Arsenal also have nothing left to do but complete their fixtures. Only West Ham have anything to play for. If our lot can keep focus, relax and finally take chances, two wins from four is not unlikely in the circumstances.

Guinness Boy · May 2, 2021

Richy_Seagull said:
Right. And the basis for everything is the league table? It's just an odd metric to solely rely on and somewhat narrow minded imo. I understand its ultimately the most important as it's why we play the game, but to use it solely to evaluate a teams performance is just bizarre. There is so much luck and variance in matches along with countless other things, so much more needs to be taken in to consideration.

Things the Premier League table decides:

- The Champions
- Who plays in Europe
- Prize money
- Relegation

Additional things the other league tables decide:

- Promotion
- Playoffs

Things that the league you play in decide:

- How much of your revenue comes in from TV money and
- In a pandemic, how many of the games are available on television when you can't go to the ground.

Things that how nicely you play decide:

- How much pundits blow smoke up your backside
- Attracting a particular type of player (i'd say, perhaps, one with a lot of tricks and good passing but average finishing and a tendency to go missing against sides like Sheffield United)

It doesn't even influence ST sales as much as what league you are in. BHAFC has a hard core of 15-18K and needs to make up the rest with plastics, tourists and occasionals, all of whom will rock up more to a Premier League game.

Richy_Seagull · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
Things the Premier League table decides:

- The Champions
- Who plays in Europe
- Prize money
- Relegation

Additional things the other league tables decide:

- Promotion
- Playoffs

Things that the league you play in decide:

- How much of your revenue comes in from TV money and
- In a pandemic, how many of the games are available on television when you can't go to the ground.

Things that how nicely you play decide:

- How much pundits blow smoke up your backside
- Attracting a particular type of player (i'd say, perhaps, one with a lot of tricks and good passing but average finishing and a tendency to go missing against sides like Sheffield United)

It doesn't even influence ST sales as much as what league you are in. BHAFC has a hard core of 15-18K and needs to make up the rest with plastics, tourists and occasionals, all of whom will rock up more to a Premier League game.

Ha, yes, thanks for the list. As I said, ultimately the league table is the most important.

This is nothing to do with "playing nice". We have fundamentally improved as a football team. In Hughton's last season we were 18th in expected points, but luckily got a bit of luck and just survived. This season we are 4th in expected points. These are the metrics the club will be looking at. For whatever reason we have underachieved in that respect. Probably a mix of variance/bad luck/and yes, a striker who can be relied on to match or even out perform his xG.

I am not saying we are world beaters, but this season we have dominated the majority of games we have played, which as a Brighton fan is pretty amazing. And with a bit of luck/variance actually going in our favour next season, along with a new striker we might start climbing the ALL IMPORTANT league table.

Guinness Boy · May 2, 2021

Richy_Seagull said:
Ha, yes, thanks for the list. As I said, ultimately the league table is the most important.

This is nothing to do with "playing nice". We have fundamentally improved as a football team. In Hughton's last season we were 18th in expected points, but luckily got a bit of luck and just survived. This season we are 4th in expected points. These are the metrics the club will be looking at. For whatever reason we have underachieved in that respect. Probably a mix of variance/bad luck/and yes, a striker who can be relied on to match or even out perform his xG.

I am not saying we are world beaters, but this season we have dominated the majority of games we have played, which as a Brighton fan is pretty amazing. And with a bit of luck/variance actually going in our favour next season, along with a new striker we might start climbing the ALL IMPORTANT league table.

Unless someone is going to hand Tony Bloom the 4th place prize money cheque and a spot in the Champions League next season I can assure you that our EXPECTED points are not going to be the ones buttering the top table's parsnips.

Icy Gull · May 2, 2021

Icy Gull said:
You are really desperate to sell your ultra negative take on Potter aren’t you? Come the end of the season, if you are right you can crow away but try putting that white flag away whilst there are so many points to play for.

You may get your wish and see Potter sacked but maybe TB will back him in January and we’ll see an upswing. Setting yourself up as the font of all knowledge about what is going to happen is pretty wearing, to me anyway.

We have been through so much more shit than what is going on at the moment, it’s depressing to see so many quitters on here.

Just trust in TB, he surely has that in the bank?

By all means rejoice if you get your way and Potter is sacked.

I think that I am within my rights to bounce this :lolol:

Richy_Seagull · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
Unless someone is going to hand Tony Bloom the 4th place prize money cheque and a spot in the Champions League next season I can assure you that our EXPECTED points are not going to be the ones buttering the top table's parsnips.

Well done for blindly missing the point. Again, its underlying signs that things are going in the right direction.

But yea, lets leave it there. You just keep staring at that league table and drawing your conclusions from that, if that's your thing.

Baldseagull · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
Things the Premier League table decides:

- The Champions
- Who plays in Europe
- Prize money
- Relegation

Additional things the other league tables decide:

- Promotion
- Playoffs

Things that the league you play in decide:

- How much of your revenue comes in from TV money and
- In a pandemic, how many of the games are available on television when you can't go to the ground.

Things that how nicely you play decide:

- How much pundits blow smoke up your backside
- Attracting a particular type of player (i'd say, perhaps, one with a lot of tricks and good passing but average finishing and a tendency to go missing against sides like Sheffield United)

It doesn't even influence ST sales as much as what league you are in. BHAFC has a hard core of 15-18K and needs to make up the rest with plastics, tourists and occasionals, all of whom will rock up more to a Premier League game.

I think you are getting a bit boxed in and being overly defensive, I realise the season is not yet done, but your opening post back in December had you stating you thought that the number of wins and draws required to hit 40 were unachievable, I doubt you would make that statement today.

Baldseagull · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
Unless someone is going to hand Tony Bloom the 4th place prize money cheque and a spot in the Champions League next season I can assure you that our EXPECTED points are not going to be the ones buttering the top table's parsnips.

I can assure you though, that it is easier to turn numerous chances into numerous goals, than it is to turn few chances into numerous goals. The Xg shows there is a potential for a better return already in place and being demonstrated, I don't understand why you are unwilling to acknowledge that.

Stato · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
Things that how nicely you play decide:

- How much pundits blow smoke up your backside
- Attracting a particular type of player (i'd say, perhaps, one with a lot of tricks and good passing but average finishing and a tendency to go missing against sides like Sheffield United)

You missed:

How often you get additional revenue from being picked for TV games once the wall to wall coverage ends;
How much interest you get from neutrals, from international TV audiences and the size of the associated marketing, sponsorship and merchandise markets;
How many tickets you sell to away fans choosing which games to attend and the associated matchday income;
What reputation your club has among youth prospects and their families choosing the best place for their development;
How keen young fans are to come along and become the next generation of season ticket holders;
How much players enjoy their football and the impact of this on their willingness to stay at the club; and of course the small matter of:
Your medium term ability to improve results, climb the league, sustain your progress and move to the next level.

A lot of these things may not matter to you, but they do matter to the bloke who invests the millions and makes the decisions. He's in it for the long term and fans moaning about wanting quick fixes in terms of results just aren't going to change his mind. Recognising this and accepting that, despite the frustrations, we are still, to echo a phrase 'On our way,' is a lot more enjoyable than acting like a bunch of Canutes every time the pace of progress irritates us.

The song goes 'We've come a long long way together, through the hard times and the good,' not 'We've come a long long way together, Why didn't we get here quicker? It's just not good enough! Why aren't we challenging for the Europa league?'

Guinness Boy · May 2, 2021

Baldseagull said:
I think you are getting a bit boxed in and being overly defensive, I realise the season is not yet done, but your opening post back in December had you stating you thought that the number of wins and draws required to hit 40 were unachievable, I doubt you would make that statement today.

It also had me state that it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season which it would. We could get anything between 37 and 49 points by then. But of course [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] chose to bounce it at a point where it would suit his agenda best. I notice he didn't bother after the Sheffield United game, eh? That sort of shithousery is fine and dandy on NSC, it's practically a tradition, albeit a tradition that is normally carried out from Brighton fan to Brighton fan and not by some weirdly obsessed Nordic stalker who was pissing himself over Swedish Division 3 when we were putting in place the training ground and seeing Hughton start to take a piss poor inherited squad to a side that looked like being Chamionship Champions.

It also had me state that while the original tracker is/was useful (and it still is) the way we're achieving the target is completely divorced from its predictions. That's still true.

Baldseagull said:
I can assure you though, that it is easier to turn numerous chances into numerous goals, than it is to turn few chances into numerous goals. The Xg shows there is a potential for a better return already in place and being demonstrated, I don't understand why you are unwilling to acknowledge that.

I fully acknowledge that our XG is great but it means jack shit in the real world.

Guinness Boy · May 2, 2021

Stato said:
You missed:

How often you get additional revenue from being picked for TV games once the wall to wall coverage ends;
How much interest you get from neutrals, from international TV audiences and the size of the associated marketing, sponsorship and merchandise markets;
How many tickets you sell to away fans choosing which games to attend and the associated matchday income;
What reputation your club has among youth prospects and their families choosing the best place for their development;
How keen young fans are to come along and become the next generation of season ticket holders;
How much players enjoy their football and the impact of this on their willingness to stay at the club; and of course the small matter of:
Your medium term ability to improve results, climb the league, sustain your progress and move to the next level.

A lot of these things may not matter to you, but they do matter to the bloke who invests the millions and makes the decisions. He's in it for the long term and fans moaning about wanting quick fixes in terms of results just aren't going to change his mind. Recognising this and accepting that, despite the frustrations, we are still, to echo a phrase 'On our way,' is a lot more enjoyable than acting like a bunch of Canutes every time the pace of progress irritates us.

The song goes 'We've come a long long way together, through the hard times and the good,' not 'We've come a long long way together, Why didn't we get here quicker? It's just not good enough! Why aren't we challenging for the Europa league?'

If you end up in the bottom three you get relegated. Lots of times on telly in the Championship isn't even close to the Premier League telly money. It's a drop in the ocean in comparison.

And if you think that Barnsley will suddenly pack out the away end because Brighton play nice football and Leeds will suddenly stop turning up at the Amex if we suddenly play like a latter day Wimbledon, you're deluded. The vast majority of away fans are the hardcore who would go anywhere to watch anything so long as beer and a sing song were involved.

Stato · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
If you end up in the bottom three you get relegated. Lots of times on telly in the Championship isn't even close to the Premier League telly money. It's a drop in the ocean in comparison.

And if you think that Barnsley will suddenly pack out the away end because Brighton play nice football and Leeds will suddenly stop turning up at the Amex if we suddenly play like a latter day Wimbledon, you're deluded. The vast majority of away fans are the hardcore who would go anywhere to watch anything so long as beer and a sing song were involved.

How many times have we been in the bottom three again?

Swansman · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
It also had me state that it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season which it would. We could get anything between 37 and 49 points by then. But of course [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] chose to bounce it at a point where it would suit his agenda best. I notice he didn't bother after the Sheffield United game, eh? That sort of shithousery is fine and dandy on NSC, it's practically a tradition, albeit a tradition that is normally carried out from Brighton fan to Brighton fan and not by some weirdly obsessed Nordic stalker who was pissing himself over Swedish Division 3 when we were putting in place the training ground and seeing Hughton start to take a piss poor inherited squad to a side that looked like being Chamionship Champions.

It also had me state that while the original tracker is/was useful (and it still is) the way we're achieving the target is completely divorced from its predictions. That's still true.

My evil "Brighton & Hove Albion isnt shit / going backwards / sleepwalking towards relegation" agenda.

andy1980 · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
It also had me state that it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season which it would. We could get anything between 37 and 49 points by then. But of course [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] chose to bounce it at a point where it would suit his agenda best. I notice he didn't bother after the Sheffield United game, eh? That sort of shithousery is fine and dandy on NSC, it's practically a tradition, albeit a tradition that is normally carried out from Brighton fan to Brighton fan and not by some weirdly obsessed Nordic stalker who was pissing himself over Swedish Division 3 when we were putting in place the training ground and seeing Hughton start to take a piss poor inherited squad to a side that looked like being Chamionship Champions.

It also had me state that while the original tracker is/was useful (and it still is) the way we're achieving the target is completely divorced from its predictions. That's still true.

I fully acknowledge that our XG is great but it means jack shit in the real world.

Thats not true. It's a great indicator at potential. Just not actuality.

B-right-on · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
It sounds more likely that we'll win more between now and May than we did in the whole of 2020? But you're not prepared to call which ones?

Hmmm.

Admitted that you were wrong yet?

Rugrat · May 2, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
I fully acknowledge that our XG is great but it means jack shit in the real world.

You're taking a very binary view on the whole thing.

The most important thing without a shadow of a doubt in the competition that is the Premier League, is the number of points on the board at the end of the season. I don't see anyone arguing that.

But, to say that it is also the only (even most important) measure of the progress of the club (on the pitch) is plain daft. I can't be bothered going into all the aspects of how one might measure progress (and there are numerous, some subjective too) as I believe you know.

Regardless of how many points we end up with this season there's no doubt in anyone's mind (that I've heard of anyway) apart from yourself, that BHA haven't made huge progress. If there are others I'd like to hear from them

Guinness Boy · May 2, 2021

Stato said:
How many times have we been in the bottom three again?

Good point. At the end of February we should award the league to the team in first, stick the next three in Europe, relegate the current bottom three and decide the rest of the places using the medium of modern dance.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Guinness Boy · May 2, 2021

B-right-on said:
Admitted that you were wrong yet?

As soon as we get 40 points I will have been wrong about us not getting to 40 points. And I said that in my first reply to Swanny :shrug:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

One Teddy Maybank · May 2, 2021

andy1980 said:
Thats not true. It's a great indicator at potential. Just not actuality.

And potential means nothing unless the ball is in the net....

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