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Can the Lib Dems win it?

Can the Lib Dems win?

  • Yes

    Votes: 25 21.9%

  • No

    Votes: 89 78.1%
  • Total voters
    114






Goldstone Rapper

Goldstone Rapper

Rediffusion PlayerofYear
Jan 19, 2009
14,865
BN3 7DE
No chance. Normal service will be resumed.
 


G

Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,841
Uffern
I don't think their target is to win it - they want to be the balance of power and get PR pushed through.

Conservatives are against PR, Labour is, sort of, in favour (although mainly as an election ploy). I still think that because of this, they're more likely to favour a deal with Labour than the Tories.
 


N

newhaven seagull 85

SELDOM IN NEWHAVEN
Dec 3, 2006
966
no chance as all the media seem to push the hung parliament question as lib dems as the smaller party, yet dont ask the same question to the other parties.
 


Stumpy Tim

Stumpy Tim

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
14,164
Back in Brighton. Well Hove actually
I also voted no, but now they're in second spot their chances have dramatically increased. If they can hold onto second for another week then you never know.

The real issue for them is that even if they got this vote share, they would only get 100 seats apparently. In fact, Labour would get most seats despite finishing third.
 




G

Gully

Monkey in a seagull suit.
Apr 24, 2004
16,812
Way out west
I also voted no, can't really see it...unless, enough people decide that it really is time to vote for a change to the two big parties slugging it out for power and that it would be good for Britain to have a totally new Government.

This has happened in other countries, I am pretty sure that a few years ago the Canadians voted in a Liberal Government and reduced the ruling Conservative party to something like one seat...I am not saying that anything that dramatic is likely to happen as it would require a massive swing to the Lib Dems, maybe 15-20%, but I think they are capable of making modest gains and definitely having a big say if we end up with a hung Parliament.

In the Lib Dems favour, they do appear to offer something slightly different to the other two parties and have in Vince Cable the man many people would like to see as Chancellor, I would expect him to be a key bargaining point in a hung Parliament. During the debate on Thursday evening, I asked myself if I could see Nick Clegg as Prime Minister, in preference to the other two...the answer was "why not!"
 
Last edited:


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,335
Back in Sussex
No chance.

Even if the vote was split 33 / 33 / 33 - the Lib Dems would still have a fraction of the seats of the other parties.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,032
no chance. thats why they make such a big thing or PR because they know they will never get power without it. there isnt a large enough grass roots block that votes LibDem. Both labour/tory can rely on somthing like 25% of the population who will always vote for them, then bulid from there.
 






W

warsaw

She's lost control
Jan 28, 2008
911
Don't forget the tactical voting. Here in Eastbourne, Labour will probably lose their deposit as the Lib Dems are the 2nd party. They normally push the Tories quite close, so if the Lib Dems do maintain their momentum they might well unseat Waterson.

The Tories need to be very afraid of the LIb Dems in this sort of seat, could make the difference between a majority and a hung Parliament.
 


Notters

Notters

Well-known member
Oct 20, 2003
24,896
Guiseley
beorhthelm said:
no chance. thats why they make such a big thing or PR because they know they will never get power without it. there isnt a large enough grass roots block that votes LibDem. Both labour/tory can rely on somthing like 25% of the population who will always vote for them, then bulid from there.
Click to expand...

But they don't, they hardly have any PR. This is why noone knew who Nick Clegg was. If they did they might stand a chance.
 




Westdene Seagull

Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,530
The arse end of Hangleton
Bozza said:
No chance.

Even if the vote was split 33 / 33 / 33 - the Lib Dems would still have a fraction of the seats of the other parties.
Click to expand...

Which is why we need PR. Based on the Suns poll the BBC has forecast the following :

Labour 276 seats; Conservatives 245 seats; Lib Dems 100 seats; Others 29 seats.

So, despite coming third in the number of votes, Labour would still be the majority party in a hung parliment. Frankly it stinks.
 




Couldn't Be Hyypia

Couldn't Be Hyypia

We've come a long long way together
NSC Patron
Nov 12, 2006
16,742
Near Dorchester, Dorset
I can't recall the exact figures but it's something like: if Labour and the Lib Dems both had 27% of the vote, there would be 60 or so Lib Dem MP's and 200 or so Labout ones.

This is because essentially the lib Dems are second choice in many wards. So either Labour win or Tories win no matter what in most cases. Adding up all the Lib Dem votes looks like they should be doing well but they are more often than not in second place. Hence the reason they are pushing for proportional representation. How can it be right that a party get a quarter of the votes but only 10% of the MPs?

(The answer of course is that MPs are voted for by their constituents...but Westminster politics are run by the parties - so how about one vote for your local MP and another for the party you prefer? Oh, that's what the Lib Dems have suggested!)
 










beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,032
Notters said:
But they don't, they hardly have any PR.
Click to expand...

Proportional Representation doughnut :wink:

where the votes are rigged so all the leaders and senior figures in all the parties get seats regardless of whether or not people voted for them.
 




WATFORD zero

WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,794
hove born&bred said:
Well Clegg turned this old Tory's head.
Click to expand...

images
images


I can imagine that you took some convincing Tim
 


D

Danny-Boy

Banned
Apr 21, 2009
5,579
The Coast
beorhthelm said:
Proportional Representation doughnut :wink:

where the votes are rigged so all the leaders and senior figures in all the parties get seats regardless of whether or not people voted for them.
Click to expand...

Well that is one case where the LDs might be struggling a bit. Cleggy only won the LD leadership race from Chris Huhne by a handful of votes (about 500 from memory) and it was generally reckoned that if the poll had finished one week later, Huhne would've won, he was coming up strongly.

YET Cleggy has a safe majority - certainly now - of about 8,000 I think - but Huhne has himself only a slim majority of 500 over the Tories in Eastleigh and no doubt they will be all out to "Decapitate" him.

That 500 that Cleggy got in by two years or so ago could be vital now.
 


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